The Miami Hurricanes take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in Pittsburgh, PA. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Pittsburgh is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 151 points.
Here are my Miami vs. Pitt predictions and college basketball picks for February 15, 2025.
Miami vs Pitt Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Under 151.5
My Miami vs Pitt best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Miami vs Pitt Odds, Lines, Pick
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 151 -110 / -110 | +575 |
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 151 -110 / -110 | -850 |
- Miami vs Pitt spread: Pitt -11.5
- Miami vs Pitt over/under: 151 points
- Miami vs Pitt moneyline: Pitt -850, Miami +575
- Miami vs Pitt best bet: PASS | Lean Under 151.5
My Miami vs Pitt College Basketball Betting Preview
Miami has life!
The Hurricanes are 2-1 in their past three games, grinding out home wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse.
Meanwhile, Pitt looks lifeless.
The Panthers have fallen far off the bubble following four consecutive losses, with a notable 16-point home loss to Virginia and a 20-point road loss to SMU.
I don’t quite understand what happened to Pitt’s offense. The Panthers were a dangerous spread pick-and-roll attack for much of the year behind Ishmael Leggett and Jaland Lowe, but they’ve been dribbling into the abyss since the calendar flipped to January.
Here are their pick-and-roll ball-handler efficiency marks in each game since Jan. 7:
- Jan. 7 @ Duke: .55 PPP
- Jan. 11 vs. Louisville: .41 PPP
- Jan. 15 @ Florida State: .60 PPP
- Jan. 18 vs. Clemson: .78 PPP
- Jan. 25 @ Syracuse: .90 PPP
- Jan. 28 vs. North Carolina: 1.00 PPP
- Feb. 1 @ Wake Forest: .89 PPP
- Feb. 3 vs. Virginia: .62 PPP
- Feb. 8 @ North Carolina: 1.00 PPP
- Feb. 11 @ SMU: .27 PPP
Those are some brutal marks, especially for a team so reliant on ball-screen creation.
If there was a game to get back on track, at home against Miami is it. The Canes are among the worst defenses in the nation (341st in defensive efficiency, per KenPom), which includes their ball-screen coverage (1.00 PPP allowed, 351st, per Synergy).
Miami has been chiefly shredded off the roll, where opposing roll-men are averaging 1.38 PPP (the nation’s worst mark) on an insane 76% true-shooting mark.
That includes a 12-for-18 mark on pick-and-pop 3s, which feels somewhat unsustainable, but their interior defense is still getting smoked.
That said, Pitt doesn’t create as much off the roll as off the bounce, so Miami might have a slim shot at slowing down the ice-cold Panthers offense.
Miami’s offense has been more respectable. The Hurricanes don’t have much spacing, shooting or secondary catch-and-shoot creation, but they’re OK at attacking the rim in transition and in post-up sets behind Matthew Cleveland and Lynn Kidd. They also don’t turn the ball over much.
The Panthers are somewhat vulnerable defending against post-up sets (.89 PPP allowed, 36th percentile, per Synergy).
Still, they’ve been a good interior defense overall, especially in conference play (27 paint points per game allowed, fourth in the ACC, per CBB Analytics), mainly because they pack it in and force opponents to beat them over the top (43% 3-point rate allowed, highest in the ACC, per KenPom).
Given Miami can’t beat opponents over the top, I don’t have much faith in its offense on the road on Saturday.
Altogether, I think the under would be my preferred play in this matchup.
I could see Pitt’s struggling ball-screen offense continuing to flail, especially if it can’t exploit Miami off the roll and continues to force inefficient on-ball creation.
And Miami could struggle to get its interior-based offense going.
Additionally, I wonder if both defenses are due for a bit of positive shooting regression. Conference opponents are shooting 39% from 3 against Pitt and 41% against Miami, two marks that seem slightly unsustainable in the long run.
Unfortunately, I think the market has caught on to that, as I project the total a few points higher than the current market price (closer to 156).
I'm also having a tougher time projecting the pace for this one.
I’ll have to pass. But if I had to bet it, I’d hit the under.
