#2 Michigan St. vs. #15 Bradley NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Michigan St. -19
- Over/Under: 131.5
- Date: Thursday, March 21
- Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Des Moines, Iowa
- TV: CBS
Michigan State's Statistical Profile
Michigan State is extremely balanced on both ends of the court, ranking fourth in KenPom's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and ninth in Defensive Efficiency.
The Spartans rode that balance to a 16-4 conference record and two regular season wins over rival Michigan, the second-best team in the Big Ten according to KenPom's Adjusted Efficiency Margin metric.
The teams met for a third time in Sunday's Big Ten Conference title game, and, once again, the Spartans prevailed, topping the Wolverines, 65-60. — PJ Walsh
- Record: 28-6
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 4
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 4
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
- Tempo Rank: 183
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Bradley's Statistical Profile
Bradley earned an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament by winning the Missouri Valley Conference championship with a comeback victory against Northern Iowa. The Braves were down 18 points in the second half but rallied to defeat the Panthers 57-54 sending the program back to the tournament for the first time since 2006.
The last time Bradley went dancing the Braves made a surprise run to the Sweet 16 upsetting No. 4 Kansas in the first round. Will this year’s squad make another Cinderella run? Doubtful.
The advanced metrics don’t look good for the MVC champ. Bradley ranks 166th overall in KenPom, 246th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency. — John Ewing
- Record: 20-14
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 165
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 246
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 118
- Tempo Rank: 298
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Michigan State -Bradley Instant Bracket, Betting Picks
A Missouri Valley team has won at least one NCAA tournament contest in each of the past five seasons. With the Braves representing the league's lone program in the Big Dance, that won't happen this year.
The Spartans should dominate the glass and control the pace via their top-100 average possession length (16.9 seconds). Bradley's biggest issue defensively comes from letting up a below average free throw rate, and MSU gets to the line at a high rate because of its transition opportunities.
Look for the 6-foot-1 Cassius Winston to thrive against the Braves' 5-foot-10 point guard Darrell Brown as well, feeding the ball inside to Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman on the block to get the Braves into foul trouble. Although it's always difficult to lay that many points despite MSU's clear-cut advantage, Bradley's inconsistent offense should also struggle against the eighth-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (90.4 opponents' points per 100 possessions).
Tom Izzo and Co. will roll into the Round of 32.
Early ATS lean: Michigan State
Early bracket pick: Michigan State — Eli
Sean Koerner's Michigan State-Bradley Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Michigan State -22
- Total: 135.5
- Proj Score: Michigan State 79 | Bradley 57
- Win Probability: Michigan State 98.9% | Bradley 1.1%
