The Michigan State Spartans take on the Auburn Tigers in the Elite Eight. Tip-off is set for 5:05 p.m. ET on CBS.
Auburn is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for March 30, 2025.
Auburn Tigers vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State +5.5
My Michigan State vs Auburn best bet is on the Spartans to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Auburn vs. Michigan State Odds
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 146.5 -115o / -105u | +195 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 146.5 -115o / -105u | -238 |
- Michigan State vs Auburn spread: Auburn -5.5
- Michigan State vs Auburn over/under: 146.5 points
- Michigan State vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -225, Michigan State +185
- Michigan State vs Auburn best bet: Michigan State +5.5
Auburn Tigers vs. Michigan State Spartans Pick & Best Bets
You know when you're watching a college basketball game in November or December and it's starting to get intense, so one of the broadcasters will say something like, "This feels like an Elite Eight game!"
This is that Elite Eight game.
Narratively and stylistically, this may be the most compelling of this weekend's quarterfinal matchups. It pits the top seed in this tournament and the top-ranked team in the AP Poll against one of the coaching legends of the sport.
Auburn won the SEC regular-season title and is led by a group of seniors and graduates with a freshman off the bench in Tahaad Pettiford, who plays like he thinks he's always the best guy on the court.
Michigan State won the Big Ten regular-season title and is made up of a mix of underclassmen and newcomers, most notably a freshman in Jase Richardson, who might be the best player on the court every night, although he doesn't seem to understand that yet.
Auburn is the best team on paper. Michigan State has defied what makes sense on paper all season long.
If you let me have a sneak peek at two items from the postgame box score, I'd want Michigan State's 3-point shooting percentage and free-throw attempts.
This year, Sparty has been a mediocre (at best) outside shooting team. Just nine teams in college basketball scored a lower percentage of their points from long range, only one of which made the NCAA Tournament (16-seed Norfolk State).
Sparty scored 23.2% of its points from deep, 356th nationally. The next lowest mark among the other Elite Eight teams is Auburn, at 32.8%, 140th nationally.
Michigan State has made just 10 3s in its last two games. That kind of offense is not going to beat mighty Auburn.
Unless, of course, it can supplement that lack of long-range firepower at the free-throw line. Michigan State ranks in the top 50 nationally in free-throw rate, free-throw attempts per game, free throws made per game and free-throw percentage.
The charity stripe is integral to Michigan State's offense. That was a key factor in Sparty's Sweet 16 win over Ole Miss. The foul-happy Rebels (322nd in free-throw rate allowed) sent the Spartans to the line for 22 attempts, 19 of which they converted.
Auburn also tends to foul, ranking 310th in free-throw rate allowed.
The Tigers' nonconference game against Duke — an 84-78 Blue Devils victory — could be Michigan State's blueprint. Auburn made more 2s and 3s than the Blue Devils but had twice as many turnovers and 15 fewer free-throw attempts.
Lastly, there's the Izzo factor.
The second point is the key. Izzo cleans up on quick turnaround games in March unless his team is simply overmatched. As an underdog in those scenarios, Izzo has gone 7-5 against the spread — a winning record but not the March magic you'd expect.
Still, I can't ignore Michigan State's ability to muck this game up, take advantage of a tight whistle, and at least keep this one close. I'm taking Sparty and the points.
