Michigan State vs Illinois Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Below, we have Michigan vs. Illinois odds and a pick for Thursday.
Illinois dropped a close one at No. 1 Purdue last Friday, showing again that even with Terrance Shannon, Jr. suspended, it can be a formidable team.
The Illini will take on Michigan State at home on Thursday night to get back on the winning path. The Spartans have looked fairly underwhelming this season and are coming off a lopsided loss at Northwestern.
Marcus Domask, averaging 28.0 points over the last two games, has shown the ability to slot in for Shannon’s production offensively. Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Guerrier have helped fill in the offensive gap as well.
Seeing as Michigan State has not shown little offensively to one-up Illinois, yet another home Big Ten squad should take the reins in this one.
Michigan State Spartans
MSU is balanced on offense and defense. The Spartans shoot 35.9% from 3-point land and 54.4% from inside the arc, but they rank in the bottom-70 nationally in three-point attempt rate. Illinois is allowing teams to shoot 32.2% on them from downtown, but the Illini rank in the top-25 in defensive three-point attempt rate. Look for them to continue to restrict their opponent's long-range shooting.
he Spartans would be able to have a massive edge on Illinois if they forced turnovers. However, they rank below 100th in the nation in defensive turnover rate. Although Illinois turns it over often, the Illini should look more stable against MSU’s defensive schemes.
One of the Spartans’ issues the last couple of seasons has been taking far too many inefficient shots. MSU ranks 15th in midrange shot frequency, per Shot Quality. Illinois ranks in the top-15 in points per possession off of midrange jumpers on defense. Even if MSU were to take the ball to the rack or shoot from three-point land, Illinois ranks second in Rim and 3 Rate. Simply put, opponents do not get easy or efficient shots off against the Illini.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Coleman Hawkins a huge ingredient to this Illinois defensive recipe. He is one of the best interior and exterior defenders in the nation because of his speed and his ability to match up with a post, like Zach Edey, or a guard, like Tyson Walker.
Offensively, Illinois has been incredibly balanced since Shannon started his suspension. The Illini have had at least four players in double digits on offense in those three games.
The Illini have also gotten better at shooting from deep. They are hitting 35% from 3-point range and 56.7% inside the arc. Hawkins, Justin Harrmon and Luke Goode have been a huge part of this surge, all shooting above 35%.
Illinois also shoots more 3s than 2s. MSU, however, ranks 165th in defensive Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality and 59th in Rim and 3 Rate. The Illini can exploit the holes on the perimeter against the Spartans. Illinois' defense is much better, when digging a bit deeper into this alignment.
Finally, Illinois ranks in the top 15 in offensive rebounding and top 80 in defensive rebounding. MSU is nowhere close. The Illini should control the glass at home and have plenty of put-back opportunities.
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Betting Pick & Prediction
Illinois has gotten by with the size mismatches they present at every position. MSU will not be able to contend with that, only having very few consistent players over 6-foot-6. Illinois has six such players who get playing time. Home court teams in the Big Ten, dating back to 2015, have feasted at home, covering 54% of the time:
Look for the Illini to cover this one..
Pick: Illinois -3.5
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