The Michigan State Spartans take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, Illinois. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Illinois is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for February 15, 2025.
Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Illinois -5.5
My Michigan State vs Illinois best bet is on the Illini spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Illinois Odds, Spread, Lines
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- Michigan State vs Illinois spread: Illinois -6.5, Michigan State +6.5
- Michigan State vs Illinois over/under: 158.5
- Michigan State vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois ML -275, Michigan State ML +225
Spread
I'm taking the Illini on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this matchup.
My Pick: Illinois -5.5
Michigan State vs Illinois NCAAB Preview
These are two teams trending in opposite directions.
Illinois looks to be back on the upswing after two straight wins following a rough 3-5 stretch. The Illini are looking to stay in the mix for an all-important top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament, as those teams receive double byes to the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is suddenly out of the driver’s seat of the Big Ten, losing three of its last four to fall from a perfect 9-0 start to 10-3 in league play.
These teams met back on January 19 in East Lansing and boy do the Illini wish they could replay that game.
Kasparas Jakucionis, hands down Illinois’ best player, fouled out in just eight minutes of game action, resulting in a very angry Brad Underwood and Illinois fanbase. The Illini also shot just 5-of-24 from 3 and 16-of-27 from the free throw line in that game … and still only lost by two on the road.
Unlike most teams in the country, the Illini are equipped to match up with Sparty on the glass. Illinois is the Big Ten’s best defensive rebounding team (MSU is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team), and Underwood has a ton of size up front.
The Illini lead the league in 2-point field goal percentage allowed, key against a Michigan State squad that lives in the paint on offense.
In the half-court this season, Underwood’s offense has been centered around the pick-and-roll. Jakucionis and Kylan Boswell are both excellent working off screens, and rollers Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson add a little pop and rim running, respectively, to the fold.
Sparty hasn’t been great at defending ball screens this year, and they really aren’t that dynamic on this end outside of Coen Carr.
Elsewhere, Illinois is still due for a major uptick in outside shooting. The Illini are second in the Big Ten in 3-point attempt rate but last in 3-point percenetage at just 29.4%. They're a better shooting than they’ve shown.
Michigan State could also be due for some defensive shooting regression, as the Spartans lead the league in 3-point percentage allowed but rank 15th in 3-point attempt rate allowed.
On the other end, Michigan State is a very steady team. The Spartans can’t shoot a lick, but they out-muscle opponents on the glass with regularity, get to the foul line at a high rate and play solid, fundamental basketball.
Tom Izzo squads are always unselfish and nationally elite in assist rate, and this season, Michigan State ranks fourth in sharing the sugar. Izzo’s squad is also much more transition-oriented this season and wins 50/50 balls and hustle plays at an alarmingly high rate.
Illinois has been great at preventing transition this season. It has a ton of size to combat Sparty’s paint play, and it can get in the mud and play grimy if needed.
But the Illini’s complete inability to force turnovers could bite them in this game. If they can't force Sparty to turn the ball over, they run the risk of losing the shot battle by a large margin with how good the Spartans are on the glass.
Illinois’ lack of ball pressure puts an even bigger onus on its bigs and wings to take care of business on the boards.
Illinois should be hungry to avenge a loss in East Lansing that could've easily gone in its favor with better foul and shooting breaks.
Expect those shots to fall in this bout and a friendlier whistle in Champaign.
