The Michigan State Spartans take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, IA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FS1.
Michigan State is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Iowa predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2025.
Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction
My Pick: Iowa +7 or Better
My Michigan State vs Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Iowa Odds
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | -298 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | +240 |
- Michigan State vs Iowa spread: Michigan State -7.5
- Michigan State vs Iowa over/under: 151.5 points
- Michigan State vs Iowa moneyline: Michigan State -298, Iowa +240
- Michigan State vs Iowa best bet: Iowa +7 or Better
Spread
I'm backing the Hawkeyes to cover as home 'dogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Iowa +7 or Better
Michigan State vs Iowa College Basketball Betting Preview
This is a great spot to fade Sparty.
Michigan State is coming off five consecutive wins against KenPom top-30 competition, most recently downing Wisconsin at home. The Spartans are flying high atop the Big Ten standings.
But they didn’t get there without some luck, including this miraculous Tre Holloman half-court winner against Maryland in College Park:
More importantly, those five opponents shot a combined 23% from 3 on 26 attempts per game.
Michigan State owns the rim on both ends of the court, but the Spartans still run a compact defense that's far from elite at catch-and-shoot denial (42% 3-point rate allowed, 15th in theBig Ten, per KenPom).
Long story short, they’re due for some negative 3-point shooting regression on defense.
Iowa can force that negative regression. Fran McCaffery-led offenses are always elite in spacing and shooting, especially with their off-ball screening actions and movement, something Sparty isn’t elite at defending (.94 PPP allowed, 44th percentile, per Synergy).
Iowa’s up-tempo offense might struggle to create in transition against a Tom Izzo-led defense that’s always elite in transition denial, and the Hawkeyes likely get obliterated at the rim on defense, especially without Owen Freeman on the floor to provide some semblance of size at the bucket.
But I’m banking on the Hawkeyes going nuts from 3.
At the same time, I’m hoping the Spartans come out sluggish in a classic letdown spot, especially if they’re looking ahead to a massive showdown with Michigan on Sunday that could have Big Ten regular-season title implications.
