The Michigan State Spartans take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 150 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2025.
Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Michigan State vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Michigan Odds, Lines
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 150 -110 / -110 | +135 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 150 -110 / -110 | -160 |
- Michigan State vs Michigan spread: Michigan -3
- Michigan State vs Michigan over/under: 150 points
- Michigan State vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -160, Michigan State +135
- Michigan State vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Michigan State vs Michigan NCAAB Betting Preview
The Big Ten is up for grabs on Friday as Michigan and Michigan State battle in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines will either grow their lead atop the conference or the Spartans will take ownership of first place at 13-3.
Michigan State is fresh off a pair of impressive wins over Illinois in Champaign and Purdue in East Lansing.
Despite being known for their defensive tendencies, the Spartans are no slouches on offense. They scored 1.16 PPP versus Illinois and 1.25 versus Purdue.
They can really get rolling in the scoring column, and it happens without a bonafide top option — eight players scored seven-plus points in the win over Purdue.
Something about the Spartans' offense still terrifies me, though. How good can a team that's shooting 29% from 3 be, and is that enough to beat their rival on the road?
Stud freshman Jase Richardson is the only intimidating perimeter scorer on Michigan State's roster, as he's shooting 39% from deep. Nobody else who makes more than one 3 per game hits better than 33% from deep.
Teams with shooting could try attacking the seven-foot duo — Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin — from Ann Arbor with pick-and-pops, but Michigan State doesn't have that in its arsenal.
If you're a Michigan bettor like myself, the question is, "Can Michigan separate enough to cover the spread?" That's a valid question given that the Wolverines have struggled to put away teams. They've won seven consecutive games by four points or fewer.
The key to getting more separation is limiting their turnovers. The Wolverines give the ball away at an absurd 20.2% clip (332nd nationally).
Wolf is the ideal point-forward for Michigan, but he turns the ball over 3.3 times per contest. Despite his flash and talent, he's way too loose with the basketball.
Michigan State doesn't force many turnovers (16% of defensive possessions). Schematically, Michigan State's defense could struggle if it can't get turnovers, as that'll allow Michigan to push the tempo more and let it fly from deep.
Wolf's interior cohort — Goldin — is the most important player on the Wolverines' roster. The 7-foot Goldin leads Michigan with 15.4 points per game and has to be licking his chops after seeing Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn destroy Michigan State on post-ups the other day.
The Wolverines attempt 3s at a 43% clip and connect at a 36% rate. The two starting guards — Nimari Burnett and Tre Donaldson — are shooting over 40% from downtown, which stretches out the defense and leads to better interior looks for Goldin and Wolf.
Another thing to watch is Michigan's transition defense versus Michigan State's elite transition offense. The Wolverines' transition defense is a pure nightmare, and Michigan State will strive to take advantage of that with its 65th-percentile ranking in transition offense.
All in all, I just love the home team here. Michigan, thankfully, is just a 2.5-point favorite at the time of writing, which falls right into its typical winning margin.
