Michigan State vs Mississippi State Odds, Pick
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-1 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+1 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
To open the first round of the NCAA Tournament, ninth-seeded Michigan State battles eighth-seeded Mississippi State on Thursday.
The Bulldogs used an impressive win over Tennessee in the SEC Tournament to earn their invitation to the Big Dance with a 21-13 record.
Meanwhile, the Spartans have lost five of their last seven coming into this one, but they have one of the best postseason coaches in the history of the game in Tom Izzo.
These are a pair of the best defensive teams in the country, and I think this could be one of the lowest-scoring contests of the first round.
Michigan State Spartans
It wasn’t a fully stress-free Selection Sunday for the Spartans, especially after the weak close to the season. Ultimately, their top-30 NET rating, along with big wins over Illinois and Baylor, were enough to earn an invitation.
Regardless of the form coming into the tournament, we all know how well Izzo gets his team prepared for this event. Izzo owns a 54-23 record in the NCAA Tournament with five trips to the Final Four and a national title.
His most recent accomplishment came in the recent loss to Purdue at the Big Ten Tournament. Izzo became just the 12th Division 1 coach to coach his 1,000th game at one school.
If he wants to make another deep run, he’ll need star guard Tyson Walker to have a great tournament. The former Northeastern transfer is one of five players in the country averaging at least 18.2 points, 3.0 assists and 1.9 steals per game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Head coach Chris Jans may not have the history of Izzo on his side, but he has done an excellent job of getting the Bulldogs to play well on neutral courts. Mississippi State and Florida Atlantic are the only schools to secure six nonconference wins during the regular season at neutral sites.
The Bulldogs are one of 18 schools with at least three nonconference victories on neutral/away floors against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents.
One of the keys to the success has been the emergence of a State offense that features the one-two punch of Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith III. The dynamic duo combines to average 32.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
Michigan State vs Mississippi State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Now that we're into the postseason, the pace of play tends to slow down. You then add in the neutral-court environments and odd shooting gyms, which lead to betting an under — especially with two strong defensive squads.
So, my best bet is for the game to fall under the total of 130, which I would bet down to 128.5. I also don’t hate a look at the first-half under based on recent historical trends for the bet.
Both of these squads rank in the top 15 among NCAA Tournament teams in AdjD by BartTorvik. They're also outside the top 200 in tempo.
Meanwhile, they have had their struggles on the offensive end of the floor lately. Since February, the two programs have ranked in the bottom half of the West Region in AdjO, effective field-goal percentage and PPP.
This has also been a profitable bet for these squads on neutral courts. The under has hit in five of the Bulldogs' eight games at a neutral site, while it's 3-2 for the Spartans in similar settings.
You’ve got two coaches who pride themselves on their defenses, and with four days to prep for the matchup, I trust both will come up with the right game plan to stop the key scorers.
It may not be a fun bet to cheer for to start the NCAA Tournament, but I can’t see many points in this opener.
Pick: Under 130 (Play to 128.5)
