The Michigan State Spartans take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan St is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. The total is set at 138 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Northwestern predictions and college basketball picks for January 12, 2025.
Michigan State vs Northwestern Prediction
My Pick: Under 138 (Play to 137)
My Michigan State vs Northwestern best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Northwestern Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 138 -112o / -108u | -148 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 138 -112o / -108u | +124 |
- Michigan State vs Northwestern spread: Michigan State -2.5
- Michigan State vs Northwestern over/under: 138 points
- Michigan State vs Northwestern moneyline: Michigan State -148, Northwestern +124
- Michigan State vs Northwestern best bet: Under 138 (Play to 137)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm taking the under in what I expect to be a low-scoring grinder.
My Pick: Under 138 (Play to 137)
Michigan State vs Northwestern College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan State is 4-0 in Big Ten play and 13-2 overall, primarily because the Spartans have owned the rim on both ends.
They’re among college basketball’s best paint-oriented offenses (40 PPG, 96th percentile) and paint-oriented defenses (27 PPG allowed, 84th percentile), and — as most Tom Izzo offenses do — they’ve obliterated the rim in transition.
That said, Northwestern runs a super passive, uber-compact defense that’s elite in transition (five fast-break PPG allowed, 99th percentile) and paint (27 paint PPG allowed, 84th percentile) denial.
I think the Wildcats can slow down the Spartans and force them into jump shots, where they’re far from comfortable.
On the other end of the court, Northwestern runs a lot of secondary actions on the perimeter but ultimately spends the majority of the time on the interior, ranking 339th nationally in 3-point rate with one of the nation’s highest mid-range rates (10.2 mid-range FGA per game, 90th percentile).
Not only is it tough to score on Sparty on the interior, but taking exclusively mid-range jumpers isn't the best way to generate efficient offense.
Therefore, schematically, I’m expecting a low-scoring grinder. And situationally, both teams could be a little sleepy and sluggish for a Sunday morning tip-off.
I make the total for this game around 135, so I’m more than willing to throw a little cash on under 138.
