The Michigan State Spartans take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, OH. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 149 points.
Here are my Michigan State vs. Ohio State predictions and college basketball picks for January 3, 2025.
Michigan State vs Ohio State Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 149 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 149 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Michigan State vs Ohio State spread: Ohio State -2.5
- Michigan State vs Ohio State over/under: 149 points
- Michigan State vs Ohio State moneyline: Ohio State -150, Michigan State +125
- Michigan State vs Ohio State best bet: Ohio State -1.5 (Play to -3)
My Michigan State vs Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Ohio State NCAAB Betting Preview
It feels strange to see Michigan State be firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation instead of needing a huge run in Big Ten play to cement its bid.
The 2024-25 Spartans are oddly reminiscent to the 2021-22 Spartans. The only double-digit scorer back then was senior Gabe Brown, but the true go-to guy late was a future pro, Max Christie. This year, Jaden Akins is the Brown of this squad and Jase Richardson fills the Christie role.
I found myself waiting for Michigan State's shooting regression, but I'm beginning to believe the Spartans just can't shoot. We're about halfway through the year and MSU is shooting a woeful 28% from 3.
Richardson is the only player with 10+ attempts shooting better than 30% from 3. The expectation was Frankie Fidler would be the go-to shooter, but he's hitting just 16% from 3.
To win Big Ten road games, you have to be able to drill shots, and Michigan State can't get that done right now.
The best Tom Izzo-coached teams tend to be great on the defensive end, and this year's Spartans squad fits the billing, ranking 17th in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
Part of what makes Michigan State's defense stout is it holds opponents to one shot on most possessions. You won't see Michigan State get burnt from offensive rebounding perspective due to its sixth-ranked defensive rebounding rate.
I just don't know how Michigan State scores enough in this matchup, unless the Spartans regularly catch the Buckeyes sleeping following a made basket — which Izzo's teams are pristine at — or they draw fouls at a high rate.
That's the only two ways I can see the Spartans scoring enough to beat the Buckeyes.
I can say one thing with certainty, and the numbers corroborate it: Ohio State is a different team when 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw is in the lineup.
After missing about a month due to off-the-court issues, Bradshaw has since returned and has provided a boost. The Buckeyes didn’t have a true backup five-man, so Bradshaw is a huge lift when in the lineup. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS when he plays, so that’s a trend worth watching.
Adding Bradshaw to an interior with budding stars Sean Stewart and Devin Royal — who's a legitimate stud — is a real advantage for Ohio State.
Ohio State is an electric offensive team, led by the Bruce Thornton/John Mobley Jr. tandem.
Thornton had shown flashes of brilliance in his first two years in Columbus, but his junior season has been marvelous. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 17.4 points, 4.8 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game while shooting 55% from the field and 48% from 3.
Meanwhile, Mobley is probably the best pure shooter in the sport, converting on 47% of his 3s. The best thing about Mobley is he demands attention from defenses, which can open the lane for Thornton to probe.
Mobley leads the charge on the Buckeyes' elite perimeter shooting attack. The Buckeyes connect on 39.3% of their shots from 3, which ranks No. 13 nationally.
Don't sleep on Ohio State's defense, either. It ranks 36th in defensive efficiency, while holding opponents to 44% shooting on 2s and 28% from 3.
The only thing holding Ohio State back from being a truly elite defense is foul issues, as it ranks No. 289 nationally in FTA/FGA.
However, most of that is without the elite defensive presence of Bradshaw. I suspect an increase in the Buckeyes' defensive numbers with a true defensive anchor manning the paint.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State Betting Analysis
I'm a bit surprised the line sits at -1.5 at the time of writing, which I expect to land closer to -3 by tip time.
KenPom gives Ohio State a three-point nod, so there's an edge with the home team.
Laying just a single possession with a Big Ten home team — which I think is better than Michigan State — is too good to pass up.
