Turkey Day is typically known for football, but this year, we have an unreal course of college basketball.
Seven top-25 teams are in action, including the most anticipated game of the day — and arguably the week — Michigan State vs. Arizona.
So, we have Michigan State vs. Arizona predictions for you, including our staff's top picks for November 23.
Michigan State vs. Arizona Predictions
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Michigan State vs. Arizona
Arizona -4.5
By Doug Ziefel
DraftKings continues to open too soft. Sharper books opened this line either at 5.5 or a heavily juiced 4.5. That tells you this line should be higher.
Looking at the matchup, Arizona is far superior on the offensive end of the floor. It has athletic size inside in Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas that will enable it to get high-percentage looks and control the offensive glass.
Then you look at the Wildcats' dynamic backcourt, and it features size, perimeter shooting and the ability to drive into the lane.
Now, the Spartans may have a nice ranking of ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but much of that is to the credit of Carson Cooper and Malik Hall defending the paint. However, they will be exposed by the Wildcats.
Arizona's size and length will carry over to the other end of the floor. Michigan State is a team that likes to work inside the arc, but Arizona's rim protectors will make it difficult for any close-range shot to fall.
The only area that Michigan State could find success in this matchup is beyond the arc, but that's not its game. The Spartans are 311th 3-point percentage and only a third of their field goal attempts have been from long range.
So, back the Wildcats to win by at least two possessions here.
Pick: Arizona -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
Arizona -4.5
By Greg Waddell
Arizona looks like the real deal. The Wildcats are near-elite on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 10 in the country in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
They make shots from outside, knocking down 41.5% of their 3s. Meanwhile, Michigan State has only made 26.3% to start the year.
This game will be decided on the boards, as Arizona is elite in that area and Michigan State struggles immensely. The Spartans allow opponents to rebound 30% of their misses (210th in the nation) and Arizona is the second-best offensive rebounding team in the sport.
If this game was in East Lansing, then maybe you could talk me into Tom Izzo working his magic. But Tommy Lloyd only has one non-conference loss in three years at Arizona.
I like the better team to win comfortably here.
Pick: Arizona -4.5 (Play to -5)
Over 145.5
By D.J. James
Michigan State already has two losses on its record, with the more surprising one coming against James Madison at home.
However, in this game against Arizona, the offense should look a bit better. Per Shot Quality, the Spartans rank 49th in points per possession at the rim. They also rank 31st in Rim & 3 PPP at the rim, so they're getting efficient shots, they just haven't been knocking them down against good teams.
Last season, for example, both Jaden Akins and Tyson Walker shot over 40% from deep. This year, neither is above 30%.
Walker is probable with an illness after missing the game against Alcorn State.
On the other bench, Arizona comes into this game with five wins, most notably Duke on the road. The Wildcats have shown what they can do in all facets of the game, but predominantly on offense.
They're rebounding at the fifth-highest rate on offense and restricting opponents to 17.8% on the boards when they're on defense.
Arizona also holds the 11th-best effective field goal percentage in college hoops, shooting over 41% from the outside and over 57% inside the arc.
MSU may struggle on the glass, but its shooting should improve a little. That said, opponents own a 3-point attempt rate of 41.7% on the Spartans, so Arizona should be able to score inside and out, regardless of how lockdown MSU has been on the defensive end.
MSU averages 17.1 seconds per possession offensively, but Arizona should control the pace in this one. The Wildcats rank 10th in Adjusted Tempo and sixth in possession length on offense.
Take the over in this one to 147.5.
Pick: Over 145.5 (Play to 147.5)
Michigan State +5.5
By John Feltman
Michigan State has been tremendous of late on the defensive side of the ball, and its opponents shouldn't discredit its terrific effort. This is a game that I expect to come down to the wire, and this defense could be the reason the Spartans win this game outright.
The Spartans' offensive numbers are a bit concerning to start the season, but the backcourt tandem of Walker and A.J. Hoggard is way too talented for that trend to continue. Sparty is also shooting 66% from the free-throw line, which is bound to turn around eventually.
Arizona has definitely been impressive, but I think it’s time to pump the brakes on this team. It’s way too early in the year for the Wildcats to be laying 5.5 points to a formidable opponent.
I also think the Cats are due for some negative shooting regression, as they're hitting 59% of their shots from the floor thus far. They also have been pretty careless with the basketball, ranking 200th in turnover%.
Arizona is the lengthier team, so it should be able to dominate inside. However, I give the backcourt edge to Spartans, and that could end up being the difference on the offensive end.
KenPom makes this game Arizona -6, but I think that’s a stretch. Sparty could remain cold from the outside, but I trust their guard play and defense to keep this one close.
Pick: Michigan State +5.5 (Play to +4.5)
Michigan State +5.5
Yes, I’m aware that Michigan State has gotten off to a sluggish start to the year with a shocking loss at home to James Madison followed by a defeat to Duke in Chicago.
Am I concerned about the long term prospects of this team? Not whatsoever.
As Izzo said in his press conference after the Duke game, the Spartans just happened to shoot the ball really poorly from deep to begin the season. This is still a team with plenty of capable shooters, and they'll knock those down as the year progresses.
Now the Spartans head west to Palm Springs as an underdog against an Arizona team riding high at 5-0 with a win at Cameron under its belt.
As a result, this is too many points for the Wildcats to be laying.
Michigan State has the size on the interior to bang with guys like Ballo and Krivas.
Additionally, the early November adversity that MSU has had to face will make it better off for this contest.
The Spartans are battle-tested already and should come out with their hair on fire, wanting to beat a top-five team and avoid a third loss in the first month of the season.
Michigan State can absolutely win this game outright, so I will gladly back the Spartans catching four points in this spot.
Go Green, Go White.
Pick: Michigan State +5.5 (Play to +3)
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