The Michigan Wolverines take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 153 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. Indiana predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
Michigan vs Indiana Prediction
My Pick: Over 152.5 (Play to 154)
My Michigan vs Indiana best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Indiana Odds, Spread, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- Michigan vs Indiana spread: Michigan -3
- Michigan vs Indiana over/under: 153 points
- Michigan vs Indiana moneyline: Michigan -160, Indiana +135
- Michigan vs Indiana best bet: Over 152.5 (Play to 154)
My Michigan vs Indiana College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
A year after being by far the worst team in the Big Ten, Michigan has immediately vaulted back into the title race. The Wolverines sit just a half-game back of leader Purdue. Dusty May has orchestrated a masterful turnaround in his first year on the job.
It hasn't been easy recently, though. Despite being 4-2 in its last six games, Michigan hasn't won a game by more than four points since Jan. 12.
The Wolverines’ supernova offense has come back down to earth due partly to their perimeter shooting reverting to mortal levels.
Over this six-game run, Michigan has made just 34.0% of its triples, right around the national average. In the 16 games prior, that number was 37.8%, a top-35 rate in the country.
The larger problem, however, remains ball security. Careless turnovers have plagued the Wolverines all season. Their three primary ball-handlers — guards Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gayle Jr., and point forward Danny Wolf — all have turnover rates north of 20% in league play (KenPom).
When Michigan does get a shot off, though, it can overwhelm opponents at the rim. Wolf and frontcourt bash brother Vlad Goldin form a terrifying duo, dicing opponents in unconventional double-big ball screens.
Goldin is one of the sport's best roll men/finishers, and Wolf’s creative passing constantly finds ways to get him the ball in prime positions.
Defensively, the two-big lineup has held up quite well. Per KenPom, Michigan is a top-25 unit on that end, carried by an effective interior defense that doesn't surrender many easy buckets.
Nimari Burnett is a useful wing defender, and sixth man Rubin Jones is as tenacious as it gets as a big guard option.
Indiana Basketball
So, Woodson, hey? The much-maligned Indiana boss has finally reached the end of the road following the official release that he'll step down at the end of the season.
Hoosier fans may rejoice, but how will this affect the players? Is this white flag symbol for a disappointing season with an expensive roster? Or will they circle the wagons and rally around their coach for his final weeks in charge?
Climbing inside the psyche of college athletes is a near-impossible task. It’s a huge part of this handicap, though, and one that could be identified early on in the game. Live betting could have value here.
In the cruelest twist for Woodson, the coach many want to be his successor, May, is on the other sideline. Indiana faithful will likely shower the former Hoosier assistant with chants of his name, an odd dynamic as Indiana still tries to battle onto the right side of the bubble (seriously, it’s possible!).
On the court, Indiana’s style under Woodson has been nearly as frustrating as his results.
This season is the high-water mark for the Hoosiers’ 3-point attempt rate in his four-year tenure — they rank 320th nationally.
They struggle badly to space the floor, leaving poor Oumar Ballo swarmed on the block. Mackenzie Mgbako and Luke Goode are both potent shooters, but Mgbako has slumped badly in Big Ten play, and Goode has little utility beyond spotting up.
Defensively, Indiana has a massive enforcer at the rim in Ballo. Though not a true shot-blocker, he's enormous and bothers opposing finishers. Myles Rice is a solid on-ball defender, as well.
The problem is the pieces and scheme have issues beyond that. Mgbako’s effort waxes and (mostly) wanes, and Goode and Malik Reneau have struggled to keep opponents in front.
The ultimate result is that Indiana doesn't force many tough mid-range jumpers — it’s a lot of rim attempts and triples.
Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Analysis
As mentioned in the Indiana section, this could be a strong live-betting game.
If Indiana looks dialed in, the Hoosiers could rally for a huge victory in front of a feverish crowd that finally got its wish. Perhaps Woodson has a short swan song. But if Indiana looks disinterested, given the coaching news, this game could snowball.
Michigan has also had a ton of wild in-game swings. The turnover issues come in bunches, leading to multiple empty possessions and easy baskets for the opponent in a row.
But when the Wolverines take care of the ball, they can score in bunches.
Pace is a huge component of this handicap. Despite playing two bigs, Michigan wants to get out and run. The Wolverines rank in the top 20 nationally in shortest average possession length on offense, per KenPom.
Indiana has also been inclined to run, and the one Woodson-related angle I feel strongly about is that I think the Hoosiers play looser with their coach’s fate finally decided. Limbo is a tough place to be. Thus, I expect this game to exceed the 71-possession projection that KenPom offers.
The Hoosiers' offense will still need to exhibit some measure of efficiency. Ballo has to score against Michigan’s twin towers, and Rice, Goode and Mgbako must hit a few shots. I’m not worried about Michigan scoring, but Indiana will need to keep up.
Michigan’s turnovers will help in that regard.
I don't have this as a super strong edge, so I would only bet it up to 154.
