The Michigan Wolverines take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 9, 2025.
Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction
My Pick: Michigan +6 or Better
My Michigan vs Michigan State best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 147 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 147 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- Michigan vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -8, Michigan +8
- Michigan vs Michigan State over/under: 147
- Michigan vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State ML -400, Michigan ML +310
Spread
I'm backing Michigan to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Michigan +6 or Better
Michigan vs Michigan State NCAAB Preview
While this game could’ve been for the Big Ten regular-season title, Michigan’s (long overdue) two-game losing streak against Illinois and Maryland over the past week sunk the Wolverines’ chances, and Sparty’s recent gritty road wins against Iowa and Maryland clinched another trophy for Tom Izzo’s case.
So, given that, the Spartans have nothing to play for. At the same time, the Wolverines need to hold off Maryland for the conference tournament’s second-overall seed — and they don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
So, the situational spot is all Wolverines.
Michigan State handled Michigan in Ann Arbor a few weeks ago, winning by 13 behind a dominant second-half performance (41-24).
That said, the Wolverines did lead by eight late in the first half, and they ultimately lost because they shot 5-for-21 (24%) from 3 while Sparty shot 9-for-22 (41%).
The game is likely a lot closer with more typical shooting splits, and Michigan State is due for a lackluster second half after some amazing late-game performances in the last few weeks (e.g., the Iowa game on Thursday).
The Wolverines have some schematic advantages.
They’re an elite spread ball-screen attack behind the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin sets, so they create a super-high rim-and-3 rate (90%, highest in Big Ten, per ShotQuality).
While Sparty is a dominant rim defense, they’re just an average ball-screen coverage defense (.89 PPP allowed, 46th percentile, per Synergy) that allows plenty of triples (41% 3-point rate allowed, 261st nationally, per KenPom).
Sparty is also rim-dominant on the other end, which could be a problem against Michigan’s excellent rim-denial defense (13 at-the-rim field goal attempts allowed per game, 97th percentile, per CBB Analytics).
Michigan surprisingly won the points-in-the-paint battle in the first matchup (34-32). I think the Wolverines can keep it close if they just make a few extra triples.
Of course, Michigan will be at a big shot-volume disadvantage. The Wolverines turn the ball over like crazy and don’t force turnovers, while Michigan State is the best two-way rebounding team in the Big Ten.
That played out in the first meeting, with Sparty taking 11 more shots from the field than the Wolverines (61-50).
That said, I have to side with Michigan here given the situational spot and schematic advantages.
