The Michigan Wolverines take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Purdue is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 151 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for January 24, 2025.
Michigan vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Purdue -3.5 (Play to -5)
My Michigan vs Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Purdue Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 151 -112 / -108 | +154 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 151 -112 / -108 | -185 |
- Michigan vs Purdue spread: Purdue -4.5
- Michigan vs Purdue over/under: 151 points
- Michigan vs Purdue moneyline: Purdue -185, Michigan +154
- Michigan vs Purdue best bet: Purdue -3.5 (Play to -5)
Spread
I like Purdue on the spread up to -5.
Moneyline
There's no value on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Purdue -3.5 (Play to -5)
Michigan vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Michigan is very fortunate to be entering this matchup coming off a win because it was inches away from losing back-to-back games.
Minnesota stunned Michigan in "The Barn," as the Wolverines' Achilles' heel — blowing double-digit leads — finally caught up to it. Then Northwestern had Michigan on the ropes, but the Wildcats couldn’t get the job done in overtime.
I'd imagine Dusty May is looking to correct things in the film room this week.
The twin-tower duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin is everything for Michigan. While the big-to-big pick-and-roll has caught the eyes of the college basketball community, the two are just flat-out dominant in general.
Goldin might be the hottest player in the Big Ten, scoring 18+ points in four consecutive games.
Meanwhile, his pick-and-roll cohort — Wolf — is nearly guaranteed to notch a double-double in every game. Wolf is a bonafide NBA prospect and a fun player to watch, but his lowlights have put Michigan in tough positions. The 7-footer averages 3.9 assists with 3.8 turnovers a night. He’s the biggest culprit to Michigan’s turnover problems.
Although giveaways are an issue, there’s no doubting Michigan’s legitimacy. The Wolverines rank 14th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency, which speaks to their dominance that leads them to a 14-4 record.
May is a coach who likes to push the tempo. Michigan plays at the 56th-fastest tempo in the country, and the different paces could dictate who controls the game. If the game is slower, then it’s a dream battle for Purdue. If it’s faster, then Michigan has a good shot to cover.
Purdue Basketball
The most shocking result of the week took place in West Lafayette, as the Buckeyes and Boilermakers fought punch for punch before Ohio State pulled out the win.
From a pure spot perspective, Purdue is a dynamite play here. The Boilermakers led Ohio State by 16 in the first half before collapsing. Plus, they haven’t lost back-to-back games in Mackey Arena since before COVID was a thing back in 2019-20.
We got a glimpse of how pivotal Braden Smith's scoring is to Purdue winning.. The dominant point guard scored just 12 points on 3-of-14 shooting against Ohio State, and he’ll need a bounce back performance if Purdue wants to beat a team of Michigan’s caliber.
Smith is a maestro in the pick-and-roll. He’s probably the best pure point guard in America, averaging 15 points and 8.9 assists per game. He’s the type of guard who makes everybody around him better, and Smith probably won’t throw out two clunkers in a row.
Sure, Purdue is super reliant on Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer, but maybe that's not a bad thing. I'd rather have three players who average 15 points per game than a bunch of decent scorers who average 8-to-10 points.
Kaufman-Renn can get hot and score 30, and so can Smith. Both rank in the top 10 of KenPom's National Player of the Year rankings for good reason.
I would've felt differently about this matchup about three weeks ago. However, Purdue opting to lean into defense and siding with the bigger lineup — with Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn on the interior — makes it more suitable to stopping Michigan’s dominant bigs.
I still have faith in Purdue’s defense, despite some unfavorable numbers defending the interior (opponents shoot 52% from 2).
However, the key to Purdue getting hot in Big Ten play was a defensive turnaround. Prior to Ohio State scoring 1.12 PPP, the Boilermakers held five straight foes to fewer than 1.00 PPP.
One angle I’m looking at here is turnovers, as Purdue excels at forcing giveaways, posting a stout 19% defensive turnover rate.
Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Analysis
From top-to-bottom, Purdue is the better team, and the spot is too good to pass on.
Matt Painter doesn’t lose back-to-back games in Mackey Arena.
History backs it up, and Purdue has a great shot to secure the win and cover.
The Boilers have covered two of their past three games in Mackey Arena, covering convincingly vs. Northwestern and Nebraska before the loss to Ohio State broke the streak.
