The Michigan Wolverines take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Michigan vs USC Prediction
My Pick: USC +5 or Better
My Michigan vs USC best bet is on the Trojans spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs USC Odds, Spread, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 151.5 -108 / -112 | -250 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 151.5 -108 / -112 | +205 |
- Michigan vs USC spread: Michigan -6
- Michigan vs USC over/under: 151.5 points
- Michigan vs USC moneyline: Michigan -250, USC +205
- Michigan vs USC best bet: USC +5 or better
My Michigan vs USC College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan's passive, lackadaisical drop-coverage defense should give USC the middle of the court, which Musselman and Co. will happily take.
It’ll be tougher for USC to score on post-ups and cuts — things Matt Knowling and Josh Cohen love to do — so Desmond Claude and Saint Thomas must shoulder the scoring load via dribble penetration. That could be a blessing or a curse, depending on which version of the Trojans' backcourt shows up on Saturday.
Claude, Thomas and others should earn easy run-outs by forcing turnovers. Michigan is among the nation’s worst ball-handling teams, while the Trojans have four guys averaging over a steal per game.
On the other end of the court, USC must keep Michigan from crashing the glass and earning second-chance points, and I’m worried about the Trojans' roll-man defense against the country’s most unique four-five pick-and-roll duo (1.12 PPP allowed, 26th percentile).
However, USC is versatile and lengthy, ranking 23rd nationally in average height while running between 6-feet-4 and 6-feet-10 at every spot. So, it’s not inconceivable that the Trojans can match up with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin.
The Trojans are also a rock-solid rim-and-3 defense, which is uber-important against Michigan’s elite rim-and-3 attack. They’re also solid in transition denial (8.2 fast-break PPG allowed, 73rd percentile), which is key against the Wolverines’ up-tempo offense.
All in all, I don’t hate the schematic matchup for USC.
I’m also not confident in the Wolverines' ability to travel west for a conference battle — talk about a brutal travel situation. Big Ten home court is already so strong, and the added travel distance will likely strengthen it further.
Among those squads, the underdogs are 181-153-9 ATS, suitable for 14.7 units of profit at a 4.3% ROI.
Plus, Musselman hasn’t been awful in these spots. He picked off Duke and Texas A&M as a home ‘dog last season with Arkansas.
The market is baking in the situational angle, hence why the Trojans are only five-point underdogs despite most projection systems making them closer to eight-point 'dogs.
But I’m uncertain if the market has accounted for Michigan’s potential overperformance. Opponents have shot under 30% from 3 against the Wolverines when ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.
The Wolverines saw some of that negative regression against the Sooners and Razorbacks, who canned 21-of-48 (44%) of their 3-point attempts across Michigan’s two-game losing streak.
And it wasn’t long ago that the Wolverines barely held off a mediocre Wake Forest team by two in a “semi-away” game in Greensboro.
I’ll keep it smaller, but I’m willing to take a shot with the Trojans at home against a potentially overvalued Michigan squad.
