The college basketball world always falls in love with the little guy come March — but why wait until March when we can take a deeper look and enjoy those teams right now?
In fact, even more great mid-majors who don't win their respective leagues will never get the light of day because there isn't an NCAA tournament appearance to match it.
Dive in below for our first mid-major betting report, as I break down Indiana State and Louisiana Tech.
Indiana State Sycamores
The Indiana State Sycamores have rapidly established themselves as one of the best mid-major teams in the sport.
It's not surprising when thinking about the positive coaching history of Josh Schertz, who's used to turning over rosters and winning right away. Schertz won over 83% of his games at Lincoln Memorial (D-II) and led the Sycamores to 23 wins last season.
He's proven himself as a winner at the highest level of D-II hoops, and it's time to replicate the success at this level.
Additionally, this year's Sycamores squad is led by two All-Missouri Valley-caliber players, Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope.
Avila is one of the most unique players in America. At 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, Avila excels in every aspect of the game — passing, dribbling and shooting are all strong suits of his game. It's pretty uncommon for players donning those measurables to feature such a polished inside-out game, which works perfectly in Schertz's modern offense.
Avila averages 16.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per contest.
Swope leads the team in scoring, and he's taken the role left behind by Voss McCauley. Swope and McCauley actually had similar paths that led them to Terre Haute — both started at the D-II level.
Swope played at Southern Indiana and joined the Sycamores when transitioning to the D-I level. Now at Indiana State, Swope is making serious strides, averaging 19.7 points on an insane 50% shooting. Having two all-conference-caliber players leading the team is perfect in the Missouri Valley Conference.
Indiana State ranks favorably in the metrics, sitting at 54th in KenPom. The Sycamores' offense ranks 38th nationally in Offensive Efficiency and top-100 in Defensive Efficiency, the best mark of Schertz's three seasons.
If you like watching super efficient offense, you won't find many teams better than Indiana State. It ranks first nationally in effective field goal percentage (61.7%) and shoots an immaculate 42% from deep, ranking fifth nationally.
Most teams just don't have the personnel to defend all five shooters on the floor. Opposing teams have no choice but to live with the results, or to bench their plodding bigs due to Indiana State's floor spacing. It's arguably the most modern offense in America.
Ready for a crazy stat? Five of Indiana State's top rotation players shoot 40% or better from deep, including Julien Larry at 60% and Jayson Kent at 50%. Even the low-volume shooters can catch fire at any given moment.
The one area where Indiana State concerns me is defensively. I mentioned the clear increase in defensive efficiency, but what happens when Indiana State faces great offensive teams? It's a mixed bag.
Alabama dropped 102 points on Indiana State, and Toledo only managed 74 points.
Thankfully for Indiana State, most Mo Valley teams focus on defense instead of offense.
I'm looking to back Indiana State as much as possible in conference play — if the number makes sense. Of course, never blindly bet a team without taking matchups into context, but I don't see any team posing a huge matchup disadvantage for the Sycamores.
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Earlier, we peaked at one side of the token — an elite offensive team. Now let's focus on a team with a stark contrast to Indiana State's style of play.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs remained in Conference USA amidst the major conference reshuffling, which moved UAB, FAU, North Texas and Rice out and Liberty and New Mexico State in. The Bulldogs hold a minor advantage as concurrence familiarity and travel schedules matter.
Louisiana Tech is 8-2 over the first 10 games, with its only losses coming to top-40 ranked KenPom teams, Colorado State and New Mexico. The Bulldogs lost both games by single digits, including a tightly-contested battle against Colorado State without Daniel Batcho.
Speaking of Batcho, the 6-foot-11 forward is the linchpin for the No. 25-ranked defensive team, according to KenPom's Defensive Efficiency metric. Batcho is averaging 13 points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots per game and might be the most valuable player in Talvin Hester's lineup.
I said might because preseason C-USA Player of the Year Isaiah Crawford is also on the team. Crawford adds more offensive flow than Batcho as a floor-stretching presence at the four. Crawford is averaging 14.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, three assists and 3.3 stocks (steals and blocks) per game.
Crawford impacts the game in myriad ways for potentially the best C-USA team.
So, where might Louisiana Tech's struggles occur? Shot-making and guard play. Opposing teams already shrink the floor and dare LA Tech's shooters to make shots. Teams know the Bulldogs have the paint advantage, so the best way to defend the Bulldogs is by forcing the guards to make jumpers.
Louisiana Tech turns the ball over on 20.9% of possessions, which ranks 315th nationally.
The guard play must improve — plain and simple. It's hard to win conference championships if your guards don't show up.
My recommendation is to back Louisiana Tech unders if they lift above 135. So far, LA Tech has only gone over the total twice, against Louisiana and Colorado State. It loves limiting teams to below 65 points and typically scores around 70, so the under offers plenty of value — depending on the matchup, of course.
