It's time for the second iteration of our mid-major betting reports.
Last time, we looked at Indiana State and Louisiana Tech, two teams on the opposite side of stylistic spectrums.
Today, let's look at two more teams.
We'll look at two teams with former high-major coaches, McNeese State from the Southland and Grand Canyon from the WAC.
If you're looking for two teams capable of earning the Cinderella label in March, these two have the goods. Dive in now for our mid-major betting report.
McNeese State Cowboys
McNeese State is 8-2 in the first 10 games of the season without its head coach, Will Wade, who missed those matchups due to a suspension stemming from issues at LSU.
How many Southland teams have the luxury of sliding in the former SEC Coach of the Year to lead the most talented squad in the league?
Wade steps in to coach a top-100 KenPom team, which already holds wins over VCU and UAB in road environments.
The Cowboys run an elite offense, ranking in the top 50 in Offensive Efficiency (according to KenPom) while boasting an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% (43rd nationally.)
Expanding further, McNeese excels in two major areas: It boasts the best turnover rate (11%) and shoots 41% from 3 (fourth nationally). If you limit turnovers and shoot over 40% from 3, losing games won't happen regularly.
The kickstarter for McNeese's offense is point guard Shahada Wells — an experienced guard who transferred in from TCU. Wells is averaging 19.7 points on 56% shooting and 44% from 3, and he's exploded for 35+ points on two occasions.
Wells is a high-tier mid-major guard playing in a conference well below his talent level. He's the clear favorite for Southland Player of the Year and he's McNeese's engine.
The Cowboys also have the top frontcourt in the league, with the athletic Christian Shumate and bruising Antavion Collum starting next to him. The Southland is lean on high-level frontcourt players, so McNeese can attack opponents in a myriad ways in conference play.
The biggest concern for McNeese State is free-throw shooting, where the Cowboys shoot just 63% from the line (340th nationally). Games are won and lost at the foul line, so will McNeese's shooting woes haunt it in league play? We'll have to see.
So, how's the best way to bet McNeese State moving forward? While I'm looking to back it when the opportunity is right, some of the better Southland foes — like New Orleans, Incarnate Word and Southeastern Louisiana — will be huge underdogs in their matchups with the Cowboys.
I'm looking to take the points with the better Southland teams. It's still conference play, and beating teams in the conference is never easy, regardless of the league.
In 2018, Stephen F. Austin lost three conference games, despite finishing 112th in KenPom. You won't win every game easily.
So, look to fade McNeese in certain spots.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
Grand Canyon Antelopes
The Grand Canyon Antelopes are quickly becoming a college basketball fan favorite in the mid-major realm. The Lopes appeared in two of the past three NCAA tournaments and have a squad capable of making it three of the past four seasons.
Bryce Drew's team is 8-1 so far this season — with its only loss coming to South Carolina — and produced the first-ranked win in program history over San Diego State. The victory over the Aztecs proved that the Grand Canyon could defeat America's best.
Additionally, Grand Canyon generates many second-chance opportunities from offensive rebounds, ranking 10th in offensive rebounding percentage nationally.
The biggest reason for the rebounding is Gabe McGlothan — the heart and soul of the Lopes' team. Sure, the team has better players, but the most important is the versatile McGlothan. He's averaging nearly three offensive rebounds per game and also hits timely shots, like he did to avoid an upset against UT Arlington.
The best part of Grand Canyon's team is its dynamic scoring duo of Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. The 6-foot-7 Grant-Foster came out of nowhere after missing the last two years due to a medical emergency.
Now, two years removed from the incident, Grant-Foster is averaging 21.3 points and 6.5 rebounds for a top mid-major team in America. The best part of Grant-Foster's game is his ability to attack the defense in multiple ways. He can use his athleticism to drive against slower opponents and use his length to shoot over shorter opponents.
Harrison is the forgotten piece in Phoenix. Harrison garnered recognition as the WAC Preseason Player of the Year, averaging 15.9 points behind Grant-Foster. The Lopes have two players capable of scoring 30+ points in any game, which makes them extremely difficult to stop.
Grand Canyon has two notable issues worth monitoring heading into WAC play: 3-point shooting and turnovers. While McNeese is on the green side of the spectrum, Grand Canyon leans towards the red side. It turns the ball over nearly 20% of the time and shoots only 31% from 3.
The biggest ingredient to fix the shooting woes is getting better results from Harrison, who's hitting only 21% from deep.
I honestly think Grand Canyon's ceiling is higher than it's playing. Don't forget, last year's WAC Preseason Player of the Year — Jovan Blacksher — hasn't suited up this year following last year's season-ending injury.
Grand Canyon is even more dangerous once Blackshear is back. Plus, I don't see the shooting struggles continuing based on the pedigree of the roster. Plenty of these players have long track records of shooting the ball consistently from 3, so things should level off over time.
Look for chances to back the Lopes in league play, especially in the rowdy Phoenix environment.
