Here's the fourth edition of Action Network's mid-major report. We'll break down two teams in each report (six already and two today). These are the little guys in college basketball — the ones you typically won't spend Saturday's checking the box scores of during power-conference games, unless you're a complete diehard.
That's why I'm here breaking down two more teams today — Wright State and Charleston — and telling you why backing these two teams could prove profitable moving forward.
Wright State Raiders
The Wright State Raiders boast one of the most consistent mid-major programs in college hoops. Head coach Scott Nagy rolls out of bed and rattles off 20+ wins with regularity.
Earlier this year, winning 20 games seemed far-fetched, but the Raiders have found their stride.
Rock bottom hit in Dayton following a brutal two-game losing streak to Milwaukee and Green Bay in the Horizon’s first two games. The Raiders surrendered 91 points to Milwaukee and 88 to Green Bay, which brought some major concerns to the forefront.
The difference in Wright State’s Offensive and Defensive Efficiency is stark — one of the biggest gaps in college hoops. Offensively, Wright State sits at 41st in KenPom’s Offensive Efficiency, compared to 342nd in Defensive Efficiency. That’s over 300 spots.
That’s nearly impossible to sustain, and if Wright State’s defense remains poor, it’s not winning the Horizon League.
Wright State’s talent is a notch above other Horizon League teams, though.
It starts with the dynamic scoring duo of Trey Calvin and Tanner Holden. Calvin is the alpha scorer, who takes and makes big-time shots. He’s averaging 19.9 points on 48% shooting and 41% from downtown. Calvin’s shooting ability paired with the slashing/mid-range scoring prowess of Holden makes for an unstoppable duo.
While Wright State’s offense is great, it’s not perfect. My only real “problem” with Wright State’s offense is shooting. The Raiders connect on 37% of their perimeter jumpers, so you’re probably thinking I’m crazy for saying that’s an issue.
The percentage isn’t the problem, but only shooting 3s on 27% of field goal attempts is. What happens if Wright State is forced to shoot 20+ perimeter jumpers against Oakland zone? Can the Raiders' offense remain elite?
Lastly, the Horizon League is more wide-open than it’s been in the past five years. Wright State already hammered Fort Wayne, which currently ranks first among Horizon teams in KenPom. Northern Kentucky lost star guard Sam Vinson to a torn ACL, Youngstown State’s offense is shockingly inconsistent and Oakland lacks a true point guard.
Every Horizon League team has a notable flaw, which means Wright State has a real chance to make noise.
Plus, Wright State is much better than its current KenPom ranking, so there are some real buy-low opportunities in conference games.
Charleston Cougars
The College of Charleston headlined the first iteration of the “Mid-Major Report” a season ago. The Cougars won 31 games and nearly knocked San Diego State out of the NCAA tournament in the Round of 64. Instead, the Aztecs held on and they nearly won the whole damn thing.
There’s nothing Charleston could successfully follow up its historic season with other than an NCAA tournament victory — the one thing it didn’t do last year.
Charleston was shooting 21% from deep in the season’s first six games, a nearly impossible number to sustain, given the team's shooting pedigree.
Pat Kelsey’s crew rattled off wins in 10 of the past 11 games since the slow start. Charleston is now shooting 32.5% from deep this season, a major improvement based on the slow start. Success beyond the 3-point arc dictates Charleston’s future, as attempting 3s on 48% of field goals will win or lose games.
Now, the one area Charleston’s offense could improve on is attempting more free throws. The Cougars' modern style of play — featuring a spaced-floor, five-out style scheme — won’t allow for a ton of free throws, but they rank 250th in free throw attempts compared to field goals.
Getting forwards Ben Burnham and Ante Brzovic the ball more often could lead to more free throw attempts.
We know Burnham, Brzovic and Reyne Smith — the team's top three scorers — will provide legitimate buckets night in and night out. The biggest difference of late is scoring improvements from Kobe Rodgers, CJ Fulton and Bryce Butler.
All three came into the program as transfers — two of the three (Rodgers and Butler) came from the D-II level. Butler scored 14+ points in three consecutive games, Rodgers led CofC in points in Saturday’s win over Stony Brook and Fulton boasts an elite assist-to-turnover ratio.
Defensive issues play a role in CofC's inconsistency, as it ranks 157th in Defensive Efficiency on KenPom. Even during the hot streak, the defense surrendered 80+ points in three of the wins.
The defense particularly struggles when it comes to defending the rim, opponents score 1.13 points per possession at the rim, per Synergy. There's a minor fix for the lack of rim protection with freshman James Scott waiting in the wings.
It's worth nothing: Charleston offense looks different if Scott plays more than 12-16 minutes per contest. It'll cost someone else minutes, likely Frankie Policelli. Scott swats away 1.4 blocks per game in 15 minutes per contest. By virtue of playing more minutes, Scott should make a major difference for the Cougs' interior defense.
All it takes is one poor shooting performance — compounded by defensive lapses — and Charleston's season ends in the conference tournament.
I'm already eyeing a pair of road games to bet on Charleston in — at UNC Wilmington and Delaware. I see major talent advantages in CofC's favor, and the team is clicking at the right time.
I'm all in on Charleston moving forward.
