The Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, WI. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Wisconsin is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here are my Minnesota vs. Wisconsin predictions and college basketball picks for January 10, 2025.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Over 142.5
My Minnesota vs Wisconsin best bet is a pass, but I lean toward the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 142.5 -108 / -112 | +550 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 142.5 -108 / -112 | -800 |
- Minnesota vs Wisconsin spread: Wisconsin -13.5
- Minnesota vs Wisconsin over/under: 142.5 points
- Minnesota vs Wisconsin moneyline: Wisconsin -800, Minnesota +550
- Minnesota vs Wisconsin best bet: PASS | Lean Over 142.5
Spread
I'm passing on the spread, although I lean toward Wisconsin at the current market price.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under, but I would recommend betting the over if you're planning on betting this game in any way.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Over 142.5
Minnesota vs Wisconsin College Basketball Betting Preview
Minnesota’s loss on Monday was a disaster. That was the Gophers’ best chance at a win for a month, as they’re projected as ‘dogs in their next six games. Four of those matchups are on the road, where it’s nearly impossible to win in the Big Ten.
They totally and utterly collapsed after leading by seven with five minutes left in the second half and by three with 45 seconds left in the first overtime period.
After posting a heroic 25-9 ATS record last season (the nation’s second-best), Minnesota is 2-11-2 ATS this year (the nation’s worst). I suppose the market always catches up, but injuries have played a significant role in this downturn.
Situationally, Minnesota is in a good spot for a bounce-back win after two brutal losses.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is due for a letdown after four consecutive victories. The past two (over Rutgers and Iowa) have been buoyed by a crazy-hot shooting variance (60% from the field, 53% from 3) that will eventually swing the other way.
Minnesota is still mainly playing isolation hero ball with Dawson Garcia (18 points per game), and the whole offense is built around his shooting and slashing.
But I’ve been far from impressed with the Gophers’ guard play, and nobody can shoot the ball or even create open catch-and-shoot opportunities (38% unguarded catch-and-shoot rate, 13th percentile; .91 PPP on those shots, 6th percentile).
Of course, I don’t know if Wisconsin has a player that can guard Garcia. The Badgers haven’t been able to stay in front of the dribble all year, getting roasted by ball-screen (.82 PPP allowed, 27th percentile) and isolation (.93 PPP allowed, 15th percentile) creators.
On the other end of the court, the Badgers will either play through the post with the monstrous Steven Crowl-Nolan Winter duo or let their bigger Max Klesmit-John Tonje-John Blackwell wing trio cook in repetitive ball-screen creation.
Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been all that bad this year, surprisingly. But Garcia and the frontcourt don’t grade out well against solid post threats (.98 PPP allowed, 16th percentile), and the already struggling backcourt can’t stay in front of anybody off the bounce (.93 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 4th percentile).
From a schematic perspective, the over seems like the play.
That said, I’m not sure I can fully get behind the play. I’m weary of Wisconsin’s looming shooting regression, and I’m unsure how the Gophers are feeling after a physical 50-minute grinder on Monday night — although Garcia only played 29 minutes after fouling out in regulation.
I’ll pass on this game. But if I felt compelled, I’d take the over.
