The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -112. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my Mississippi State vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for March 8, 2025.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Under 148.5 (Play to 147)
My Mississippi State vs Arkansas best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 148.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 148.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas spread: Mississippi State -1
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas over/under: 148.5 points
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas moneyline: Mississippi State -112, Arkansas -108
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas best bet: Under 148.5 (Play to 147)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm banking on a lower-scoring ball game and betting the under.
My Pick: Under 148.5 (Play to 147)
Mississippi State vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
I’ve had a tough time fairly and accurately evaluating these two SEC squads.
I was never super high on Arkansas, but the Hogs pieced together a solid second half of the conference season after starting league play 0-5. In particular, they’ve really turned it around on the defensive end.
Meanwhile, I don’t understand why Mississippi State isn’t better.
The Bulldogs stormed through the non-conference with several quality wins (six over KenPom top-100 teams) and started league play 2-0. Chris Jans-led defenses are typically elite, and Josh Hubbard is a superstar point guard.
Alas, they’ve shot 28% from 3 in SEC play while opponents have shot 37%, which is likely the biggest reason for their underperformance.
Mississippi State is an excellent rim-denial defense because the Bulldogs overhelp on the dribble and in the gaps. However, they’re a weaker 3-point defense because their aggressive scheme allows a high catch-and-shoot rate.
That presents an intriguing matchup for Arkansas, which is neither rim-reliant nor catch-and-shoot reliant, instead spending a ton of time in the mid-range.
That said, I don’t trust the Razorbacks’ half-court offense much, and it’s much more important to keep them out of transition, where they’re deadly (1.19 PPP, 95th percentile, per Synergy).
Mississippi State is an above-average transition-denial defense (.99 PPP allowed, 69th percentile, per Synergy), although the Bulldogs were recently blitzed in the open court by Texas, Alabama and Florida.
On the other end of the court, Mississippi State runs a dribble-and-cut-heavy offense, with Hubbard running the show.
I think that'll be a problem against Arkansas, as the Razorbacks are lengthy and highly switchable on defense. They force opponents into isolation-creation, which will be a real problem for the Bulldogs (.62 ISO PPP, third percentile, per Synergy).
Of course, the Adou Thiero injury throws a wrench into this handicap. He’s the team’s most impactful player by EvanMiya’s BPR metric, as he’s a highly efficient offensive player on high usage. The Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile minutes haven’t been as friendly from an offensive perspective.
Therefore, I like the under in this matchup.
For starters, I loathe the offensive matchup for Mississippi State’s offense — unless the Bulldogs finally start hitting shots, which they haven’t all year.
While the Hogs’ defense is slightly worse without Thiero, Aidoo is a solid defender (if Coach John Calipari opts for that replacement route).
Meanwhile, I suspect the Razorbacks’ offense struggles without their best player in a matchup versus a solid interior defense, especially given their half-court execution.
The Bulldogs will need to hold up in transition defensively, but Thiero is also Arkansas’ highest-usage transition player, so that’ll also hurt.
On top of a tough schematic matchup for both offenses, the market makes this total way higher than the projections:
- EvanMiya: 144 points
- Haslametrics: 146 points
- Bart Torvik: 144 points
- KenPom: 145 points
As long as Thiero remains sidelined, I’ll bank on a lower-scoring ball game.
