The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, TN. Tip-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Mississippi State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here is my Mississippi State vs. Memphis predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
Mississippi State vs Memphis Prediction
My Pick: Memphis ML -110
My Mississippi State vs Memphis best bet is on the Tigers moneyline, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs Memphis Odds, Spread, Pick
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- Mississippi State vs Memphis spread: Mississippi State -1.5
- Mississippi State vs Memphis over/under: 150.5 points
- Mississippi State vs Memphis moneyline: Mississippi State -125, Memphis +105
- Mississippi State vs Memphis best bet: Memphis ML -110
My Mississippi State vs Memphis College Basketball Betting Preview
Mississippi State Basketball
After earning consecutive NCAA Tournament bids, a third one may be in the cards with the start that Mississippi State has gotten off to.
Mississippi State enters this matchup at 10-1, with wins over Utah, SMU and Pitt. It will have a chance to pick another quality win when it travels to Memphis for a Saturday afternoon tilt.
Leading the way will likely be guard Josh Hubbard, who is leading the team with 18 points per game and is second with 3.5 assists per game. The sophomore has slightly increased his scoring average, but he has significantly increased his efficiency, as he is up to 44% from the field and 41% from behind the arc.
Mississippi State ranks 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Few teams protect the ball as well as Mississippi State, as it averages just 8.9 turnovers per game and ranks second nationally in turnover percentage. The Bulldogs are strong on the offensive glass, as they grab nearly 36% of their misses and rank 36th in offensive rebounding.
Half of Mississippi State's points come from 2s, and it's converting 56% of its 2-point attempts. It's a solid 3-point shooting team as well, but Memphis may have the edge from distance in this matchup.
Mississippi State is allowing opponents to shoot 36.3% from 3 and ranks 299th in 3-point percentage defense. Its 3-point defense is the primary black mark for an otherwise solid defensive unit, as it ranks 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Memphis Basketball
The three players most likely to exploit Mississippi State's porous perimeter defense are guards PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers. Hunter leads the group, shooting 48.6% on 6.4 3-point attempts while averaging 15.6 points per game.
Haggerty and Rogers are shooting 39% from deep, as well.
The long ball may have to pave the way for Memphis, as it's only converting 48.6% of its 2-point attempts. It makes up for it by getting to the foul line a ton. The Tigers rank 16th in Division I in both free throws and free throws attempts per game, led by Haggerty.
Shooting 84.6%, Haggerty gets eight of his 22.4 points per game at the foul line, and he ranks sixth in the country in scoring.
The Tigers rank 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite ranking 284th in turnover percentage. Similarly, they rank 275th in defensive rebounding percentage.
With this in mind, the Tigers will need to make sure they do not give Mississippi State too many extra possessions.
Despite these flaws, Memphis has still piled up an impressive resume. It handed Missouri its only loss thus far, and Missouri has since gone on to knock off Kansas. Memphis also has victories over Connecticut and Michigan State in Maui and is coming off consecutive road victories at Clemson and Virginia.
Mississippi State vs. Memphis Betting Analysis
This is an evenly matched game and both teams have advantages that could decide the matchup if they can exploit them.
However, with these teams being so close, home court advantage may play a pivotal factor. Mississippi State has played just one true road game thus far, while Memphis is 3-1 at home.
Additionally, Memphis will have two of the three best players on the floor. Haggerty has scored 23 points in four of his last five games and attempted 10 free throws in three of them. Hunter already has three games with five triples thus far and he has a smash spot in this matchup.
When available, I will be interested in points props for both Haggerty and Hunter, but I also expect them to lead Memphis to a tight home victory.
