The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, OK. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -175. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Mississippi State vs Oklahoma predictions and college basketball picks for February 22, 2025.
Mississippi State vs Oklahoma Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State ML -157
My Mississippi State vs Oklahoma best bet is on the Bulldogs moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs Oklahoma Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Mississippi State vs Oklahoma spread: Mississippi State -3.5
- Mississippi State vs Oklahoma over/under: 149.5 points
- Mississippi State vs Oklahoma moneyline: Mississippi State -175, Oklahoma +145
- Mississippi State vs Oklahoma best bet: Mississippi State ML -157
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm backing the Bulldogs on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Mississippi State ML -157
Mississippi State vs Oklahoma College Basketball Betting Preview
I played Mississippi State based purely on the shot-volume battle.
Oklahoma collapsed in conference play, losing five straight because the Sooners can’t rebound or stop turning the ball over. They rank second-to-last in the SEC in rebound and turnover differential at -78, per CBB Analytics.
The Sooners are still a solid spread pick-and-roll attack led by star freshman guard Jeremiah Fears — but their shot-volume issues negate that.
Conversely, Mississippi State wins by winning the extras.
Chris Jans runs an aggressive ball-screen coverage defense that should turn Fears and Co. over en masse. The Bulldogs rank second in the SEC in steal rate at 13%, per KenPom.
Oklahoma has recorded 17 or more turnovers in four conference games, while Mississippi State has recorded double-digit steals in four conference games. In fact, the Bulldogs picked off Texas A&M 17 times last Tuesday.
Plus, the Bulldogs rank in the top 50 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, averaging close to 13 second-chance points per game.
Ultimately, Mississippi State could take 20 more shots in this game, which should cover up any other deficiencies.
That said, I believe Josh Hubbard and the Bulldogs offense put up a crooked number.
They run a rim-running ball-screen-and-cutting offense, which should work fine against Oklahoma’s struggling dribble (.86 PPP allowed, 15th percentile, per Synergy), cutting (1.24 PPP allowed, 26th percentile, per Synergy) and rim (1.22 PPP allowed, 13th percentile, per Synergy) defense.
I also believe Mississippi State is due for some more general positive regression on offense. The Bulldogs have shot under 30% from 3 in conference play, but ShotQuality projects that mark should be closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.
They finally had a decent shooting day against Texas A&M (9-for-25 from 3, 36%) and dropped 70 in a 16-point road win. I’m expecting better shooting days and more wins for Mississippi State.
That starts on Saturday against Oklahoma with a monstrous shot-volume advantage.
Also, I’m not scared of backing the Bulldogs on the road. They rank in the top 80 nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric, going 5-3 ATS.
Conversely, Oklahoma is 6-9 ATS at home this year, having lost four of its six home games in conference play, including an ugly one against LSU as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.
