The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in Columbia, SC. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -305. The total is set at 140 points.
Here are my Mississippi State vs. South Carolina predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
Mississippi State vs South Carolina Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Mississippi State -7
My Mississippi State vs South Carolina best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs South Carolina Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 140 -110o / -110u | -305 |
| S. Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 140 -110o / -110u | +245 |
- Mississippi State vs South Carolina spread: Mississippi State -7
- Mississippi State vs South Carolina over/under: 140 points
- Mississippi State vs South Carolina moneyline: Mississippi State -305, South Carolina +245
- Mississippi State vs South Carolina best bet: PASS | Lean Mississippi State -7
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to pick a side, I'd lay the points with the Bulldogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Mississippi State -7
Mississippi State vs South Carolina College Basketball Betting Preview
South Carolina is so close to a win. The Gamecocks have come within one possession of upsets over Vanderbilt, Florida and Auburn. Unfortunately, the SEC’s worst team still sits winless in conference play at 0-6.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State could use a win after losing three of the past four, most recently dropping a road game to Tennessee by 12.
What the Bulldogs really need is to start hitting jumpers again. They’re shooting under 30% from 3 in conference play and have canned just 34-of-134 (27%) during this four-game skid. This is still a pretty good shooting squad, so I suspect some positive regression is in store.
In this matchup, I expect Mississippi State to dominate off the dribble. The Bulldogs run a guard-friendly, ball-screen-centric offense behind Josh Hubbard and Claudell Harris Jr., scoring the most pick-and-roll ball-handler points per game in the SEC (13, per Synergy).
That’s a bad omen for South Carolina, as the Gamecocks run a deep drop-coverage defense that funnels on-ball dribble penetration. Even worse, they’re not particularly efficient at stopping it on a per-possession basis (.90 ball-screen PPP allowed, 35th percentile, per Synergy).
On the other end of the court, South Carolina plays almost exclusively through Collin Murray-Boyles (questionable to play) in the post. The Gamecocks run methodical interior-based half-court high-low and inside-out sets, typically working late into the shot clock to attempt to get to the rim.
Unfortunately for them, Chris Jans’ defenses are elite at denying the paint, post and rim. Among SEC teams, the Bulldogs allow the fewest post-up possessions per game (three, per Synergy) and the fourth-fewest paint points per game (25, per CBB Analytics).
While the Gamecocks should keep Mississippi State from smashing the offensive glass, they’ve also struggled with turnovers and defending in transition. The Bulldogs are an aggressive on-ball defense that will force plenty of turnovers in hopes of running the open floor, so that bodes poorly for the Gamecocks.
South Carolina has one significant advantage: patience. The Gamecocks grind the game down on both ends of the floor, working into the last four seconds of the shot clock more than most high-major teams.
Mississippi State has been poor on both ends when working in the last four seconds of the shot clock (.69 PPP, 39th percentile; .79 PPP allowed, 29th percentile; per Synergy).
Ultimately, this game is a pure pass for me.
If I had to, I’d likely lay the points with the Bulldogs, who are in a good bounce-back spot and have solid two-way schematic advantages.
But South Carolina’s recent home performances against Florida and Auburn give me pause. And I'd be especially worried about holding a Mississippi State ticket if the Gamecocks can establish their preferred pace.
