The Missouri State Bears take on the Illinois State Redbirds in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Illinois State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 131.5 points.
Here are my Missouri State vs. Illinois State predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2025.
Missouri State vs Illinois State Prediction
My Pick: Missouri State +5 or Better
My Missouri State vs Illinois State best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri State vs Illinois State Odds
| Missouri St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -118 | 131.5 -115o / -105u | +185 |
| Illinois St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -102 | 131.5 -115o / -105u | -225 |
- Missouri State vs Illinois State spread: Illinois State -5.5
- Missouri State vs Illinois State over/under: 131.5 points
- Missouri State vs Illinois State moneyline: Illinois State -225, Missouri State +185
- Missouri State vs Illinois State best bet: Missouri State +5 or Better
Spread
I'm backing the Bears to cover the number.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Missouri State +5 or Better
Missouri State vs Illinois State College Basketball Betting Preview
On paper, this is a brutal matchup for the Bears’ defense.
Illinois State is arguably the Missouri Valley’s best offense. The Redbirds are an elite four-around-one motion offense, as they surround post bucket-getter Chase Walker with four dangerous shooters. They’re fantastic with spacing and catch-and-shoot creation.
Meanwhile, the Bears are an OK post-up defense (.85 PPP allowed, 51st percentile, per Synergy), which struggles mightily in catch-and-shoot denial (360th nationally in Low Quality 3s allowed, per ShotQuality).
So, I would expect the Redbirds to roll the Bears.
However, that didn’t happen in the first two meetings.
While Illinois State swept the season series, it failed to cover in either matchup, winning by two at home and six on the road. The Redbirds shot a respectable 35% from 3 across the two games, but they couldn't put the Bears away.
That’s because the Redbirds can’t stop a nosebleed on the other end. They’re a particularly horrific dribble defense (13 pick-and-roll ball-handler points per game allowed, worst in the Valley, per Synergy) running into Missouri State’s high-volume dribble offense (16 pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions per game, most in the Valley, per Synergy).
Behind Dez White and Vincent Brady II, the Bears generated 50 points on 49 perimeter ball-screen sets (1.02 PPP, per Synergy) across the two head-to-head meetings, which was enough to keep them in both games for 40 minutes against Illinois State’s high-powered offense.
I’m partial to believing that Missouri State can repeat those performances in the third meeting.
Additionally, these two teams play at plodding paces and rarely get out in transition, leading to lower-possession game scripts that put some extra value on the underdog.
And finally, the Bears are playing much better lately. They covered four of the final five regular season games and almost upset the mighty Drake Bulldogs in Des Moines in the finale on Sunday, blowing a late lead before losing in overtime.
Meanwhile, Illinois State has been playing questionable ball, failing to cover four of its past five games with outright losses to Indiana State and Southern Illinois as favorites.
While there’s a good chance Illinois State goes nuclear from deep and blows the Bears out, I’ll take the team trending up against the team trending down in a tournament setting any day.
And there’s also the slim chance that the Redbirds go cold from 3 on a neutral court and lose outright.
