The Missouri Tigers take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, AL. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Auburn is favored by 18 points on the spread with the moneyline at -2100. The total is set at 155 points.
Here are my Missouri vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Missouri vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Under 154.5
My Missouri vs Auburn best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs Auburn Odds, Lines, Pick
Missouri Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 155 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
Auburn Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 155 -110o / -110u | -2100 |
- Missouri vs Auburn spread: Auburn -18
- Missouri vs Auburn over/under: 155 points
- Missouri vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -2100, Missouri +1100
- Missouri vs Auburn best bet: Under 154.5
My Missouri vs Auburn College Basketball Betting Preview
Missouri will face its biggest season test when it travels to Auburn on Saturday afternoon. Although the teams may have the same mascot, one of these cats is in a tier of their own.
Auburn is the best team in the country for my money, and Missouri is hoisting an 11-2 record with a strength of schedule above 250. Missouri enters as a 17.5-point underdog.
The best betting approach for the matchup is targeting the total, and I'm leaning towards the under.
Missouri hasn't faced this type of defensive tenacity all season, and I expect a massive showing from Auburn at home.
Missouri ranks 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but I take those metrics with a grain of salt. It's had a soft schedule thus far and could be shell-shocked against this Auburn defense.
Auburn ranks 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite not forcing many turnovers per contest. The Tigers are 12th in defensive adjusted efficiency and seventh in opposing 2-point percentage. Auburn is also 10th in block percentage, and it's 17th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.
It's so challenging to shoot 3s against the Auburn defense, which tells me Missouri’s 37% 3-point rate won't play a factor here. Both offenses are methodical, so I wouldn't expect either team to go relatively rapidly.
Another factor that I think will help get the total under is that Missouri struggles to rebound defensively. Auburn ranks 33rd in offensive rebound percentage, and Missouri ranks outside the 290s in opposing offensive rebounding rate.
When offenses get extra possessions, they tend to bleed a lot more clock. Also, Missouri's defense inside of the arc is good, so all of those routinely easy buckets that Auburn is used to getting won't be as easy on Saturday.
What also helps is that Auburn doesn't get to the free throw line very often. Missouri does an excellent job at staying disciplined on defense, as it ranks 35th in the nation in opposing free throw attempts allowed.
KenPom makes the total 159, yet the market is currently at 154.5. I love to side with the market in these situations, and there are more than enough metrics to suggest that we could see a struggling offensive effort from Missouri.
I wouldn’t expect a track meet from either offense, and I believe we're in a good spot for the total to sail under. I'll happily fade Missouri’s hot start to the season, as its paper-tiger record is about to be shredded to pieces in the jungle at Neville Arena.