The Missouri Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Mississippi. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Missouri vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: PASS · Lean Mississippi State ML or ATS
My Missouri vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | -270 |
- Missouri vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -6.5
- Missouri vs Mississippi State over/under: 149.5 points
- Missouri vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi State -270, Missouri +220
- Missouri vs Mississippi State best bet: PASS · Lean Mississippi State ML or ATS
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to pick a side, I'd lay the points with the Bulldogs.
Moneyline
I'm considering throwing Mississippi State in a moneyline parlay.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS · Lean Mississippi State ML or ATS
Missouri vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
Missouri is playing fantastic basketball. Dennis Gates has turned the tides after last season’s 0-18 SEC record, with Tamar Bates and Duke transfer Mark Mitchell leading a dangerous uptempo rim-and-3 attack.
However, I wonder if the Tigers are a little juiced in the markets, considering they’ve shot an unsustainable 39% from 3 in league play — especially when you consider they rank 13th in the SEC in 2-point shooting (47%, per KenPom).
It’s also not a bad time to sell Missouri following their big home win over Ole Miss — this is a good potential letdown spot.
Meanwhile, it’s a solid time to buy Mississippi State after a string of harsh results, including three losses to KenPom top-seven teams in the past two weeks. The Bulldogs likely should’ve beaten Alabama on Wednesday, so they’re due for a big bounce-back win.
The Bulldogs have also been snake-bitten by brutal shooting variance in conference play, which is a big reason for their 4-4 record. They’ve shot 28% from 3, while their eight conference opponents have shot 35%, which feels unsustainable given they lead the league in 2-point shooting (57%, per KenPom).
I’m a bit worried about Mississippi State’s offense in this matchup. The Tigers run a zone-heavy scheme that effectively neutralizes any on-ball screening action, which is the crux of the Bulldogs’ offense.
However, the Bulldogs have been a decent zone offense on relatively high volume (.99 PPP on 164 possessions, 57th percentile, per Synergy), as KeShawn Murphy can act as a solid high-post pin.
Of course, hitting shots over the top is the key to beating any zone, so the Bulldogs need some positive 3-point shooting regression to hit.
Additionally, Missouri’s man-to-man coverage funnels isolation and cutting actions, which guard Josh Hubbard can exploit — he's an elite, shifty bucket-getter and playmaker.
Regardless, the matchup is very favorable on the other end of the court.
Murphy is a rock-solid rim protector (6% block rate, per KenPom), and the Bulldogs are filled with lengthy, switchable wing defenders that effectively deny secondary off-ball screening actions (.79 PPP allowed, 77th percentile, per Synergy).
As such, the Bulldogs rank in the top 25 nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed (77%, per ShotQuality). Combine that with their borderline elite transition denial defense (eight fast-break points per game allowed, 82nd percentile, per CBB Analytics), and Mississippi State can stifle Missouri’s offense.
Ultimately, I love the matchup for the Bulldogs from a schematic, situational and regression perspective.
That said, the books have placed an enormous spot tax on the Bulldogs. I can’t lay six or seven points with them when most projection systems make the line closer to three or four (Haslametrics projects Mississippi State as a one-point home favorite).
Ultimately, I’ll be staying away from this game. But if I had to pick a side, I’d lay the points or throw the Bulldogs in a moneyline parlay. I love the spot for them to pick up a key home win.
