The Missouri Tigers take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Tennessee is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -440. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here are my Missouri vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for February 5, 2025.
Missouri vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 130)
My Missouri vs Tennessee best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs Tennessee Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 134.5 -108 / -112 | +340 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 134.5 -108 / -112 | -440 |
- Missouri vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -9.5
- Missouri vs Tennessee over/under: 134.5 points
- Missouri vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -440, Missouri +340
- Missouri vs Tennessee best bet: Under 134.5 (Play to 130)
Spread
A few matchup and spot aspects make me lean to Tennessee, but -9 is higher than I made the spread, so I can't lay it.
Moneyline
Tennessee is justifiably a heavy, heavy favorite on the moneyline. This game could have some variance with both teams launching 3s, though, so I wouldn't trust taking Tennessee at -450.
Over/Under
Both teams have slowed down in league play and could struggle against the opposition's defensive structure. I like the under.
My Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 130)
Missouri vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
Missouri Basketball
What a turnaround for the Missouri Tigers. After last year’s 0-19 debacle against the SEC, Dennis Gates and Co. have completely turned the ship around.
The Tigers are coming off back-to-back key Saturday wins, highlighted by a demolition of Mississippi State in Starkville this past weekend. That improved Missouri’s record to 17-4 overall and 6-2 in the SEC.
That success has stemmed from a specific approach on both ends.
Offensively, the Tigers are incredibly difficult to contain off the bounce. Mark Mitchell is a matchup problem for opposing bigs, while Anthony Robinson II and Tony Perkins have been unstoppable getting downhill. That trio excels at getting to the charity stripe, earning the Tigers plenty of free points.
If opponents collapse into driving lanes, though, a cadre of shooters await the chance to fire away. Caleb Grill has emerged as a star sixth man, scorching the nets at a 49% clip from beyond the arc. Tamar Bates, Jacob Crews and Trent Pierce add to the floor spacing.
Missouri’s statistical profile reflects its approach. The Tigers rank first and second in the SEC in percentage of points scored via the 3-point arc and the free throw line, respectively, per KenPom.
On the defensive side of the floor, Missouri’s perimeter defenders set the tone. Robinson, Perkins, Grill and Bates are all highly disruptive and strong, physically harassing the opponents’ guards.
That on-ball prowess — plus Mitchell and Pierce’s switchability in the frontcourt — make it tough to get Missouri in rotation. Plus, Gates’ tricky zone curveballs frequently disrupt opponents’ flow.
The Tigers have thrived in transition all season, and that starts with their big and athletic backcourt. They rank first in the SEC in steal rate in league play, consistently generating miscues that lead to easy buckets.
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee’s outlook prior to tip-off against Florida on Saturday was bleak. The team announced that floor general Zakai Zeigler would be out while resting a knee injury and versatile forward Igor Milicic Jr. was a late scratch due to illness.
However, neither absence prevented the Vols from completely shutting down the Gators’ offense. Tennessee surrendered just 0.69 points per possession in a 64-44 strangulation, giving the Vols a huge bounce-back win after a mid-week home loss to Kentucky.
Both Zeigler and Milicic returned to practice on Tuesday, and their outlook appears promising for Wednesday night’s clash.
Such a dominant defensive performance without Zeigler was a surprise. The senior point guard is a menace on the ball, and he captured the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year award last season in recognition of his impact. It’s not just steals, either, as he disturbs the rhythm of opponents with his dogged defending.
He rejoins center Felix Okpara and wing/linebacker Jahmai Mashack as pillars to the Vols’ impervious defensive unit. Tennessee ranks 15th nationally and first in the SEC in 2-point percentage defense. It also leads the country in 3-point percentage defense while forcing the longest possessions in the SEC.
Put more simply: Foes can't score inside, forcing them to chuck awful triples late in the shot clock.
The offense has been more up-and-down, to put it lightly. The Vols have struggled badly to get easy points of their own, ranking last in the SEC in both 2-point percentage and free throw rate.
Zeigler is the only true threat off-the-dribble threat, and the Milicic/Okpara combo inside doesn't easily generate interior looks. Thus, the offense is often overly dependent on Zeigler, Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey connecting on tough jumpers.
Missouri vs. Tennessee Betting Analysis
Missouri’s lopsided win at Mississippi State looked like a team reenergized from a full week off. A second straight road game could open the door for a letdown, though.
Tennessee, meanwhile, should be a healthier version of itself, pending Zeigler and Milicic’s full recoveries. Notably, the Volunteers are 39-21-1 against the spread at home over the last four seasons, a top-10 mark nationally (9-4 this season).
The Volunteers’ offensive rebounding will test Missouri’s defense. Tennessee’s shooting inconsistencies make the glass a mandatory source of scoring, and the Vols rank ninth nationally in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom.
The defensive boards have long been a weakness of Gates’ Tigers, but they've stiffened in league play, ranking a shocking second in defensive rebound rate against SEC opponents.
The Tigers could find it challenging to score against Tennessee’s elite defense. Zeigler and Mashack are blankets on the ball, potentially limiting the Tigers’ perimeter drivers. Missouri has the shooters to go over the top, but a repeat of the scorching 15-of-32 performance from deep in Starkville is unlikely.
The Vols’ home dominance and the subtle situational factors make me lean toward Tennessee. However, laying nine or even 10 against the trending-up Tigers is a scary proposition.
Instead, I'll zoom in on the total.
Missouri may struggle to create its usual advantages off the bounce. Plus, relying on trips to the free throw line is a tenuous strategy on the road, particularly against a Tennessee defense that rarely fouls.
On the other side, Missouri’s physical backcourt and improved defensive rebounding should limit Tennessee’s ability to score.
Finally, both teams are playing noticeably slower offensively in league play. Their average possession lengths have risen 1.0 and 1.4 seconds, respectively, per KenPom – a massive shift in that particular statistic.
I’m backing the under in this mid-week SEC showdown, and I’m willing to take it down to 130 points.
