Montana vs Montana State Odds
| Montana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 +100 | 144.5 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 144.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
Chaos is a ladder.
Three of the top four seeds in the Big Sky tournament are extinct, with Montana as the lone survivor. The Griz avoided two tricky landmines in their quarterfinal and semifinal matchups in chameleon fashion — that is, adapting and thriving to the style of their opponent.
Montana destroyed Portland State in transition in the opening-round game, then out-slugged Idaho State last night en route to a convincing 14-point victory.
The final boss is the Grizzlies' in-state arch-rival, Montana State, a walking inferno of buckets. The Bobcats are shooting fish in a barrel from all over the floor in this tournament — they're 24-for-54 from distance, to go along with a precise 23-for-26 from the charity stripe, over their last two games.
Montana Grizzlies
If Montana can find a way to cool off Montana State’s scorching hot offense, it could cruise to an easy victory tonight.
The Grizzlies, relative to their conference peers, are a unique blend of size, versatility and skill. They possess the post size to defend true block-driven offenses — such as Idaho State — but also boast agile wings needed to wall off the perimeter.
Tonight, the tall task will be chasing Brian Goracke and Tyler Patterson — MSU’s primary sharpshooters — off the 3-point line.
Offensively, Travis DeCuire is urging his guards — namely Brandon Whitney — to push the pace and attack opportunistically.
This is where Montana State can be exploited. Robert Ford III and Eddie Turner III are demon defenders, but the Bobcats' overall aggression — coupled with limited backend rim protection — can create easy pathways to the goal.
Montana State Bobcats
On offense, Ford and Turner’s head-turning quickness must be weaponized against Montana’s perimeter defense.
This duo was terrific against Weber State and Sacramento State in knifing through seams, opening up drive-and-kick 3s and easy lobs to an emerging John Olmsted.
Cracking Montana’s shell-like defense won’t be easy, so look for Turner and Ford to run early and often — especially off misses — to generate easy looks in transition.
Also, head coach Matt Logie likely watched Portland State’s pressure bother Montana’s guards for spurts — thus, expect some extended pressure tonight, spearheaded by Ford and Turner.
Montana vs. Montana State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Betting overs in conference tournament championship games is a contrarian play, but the circumstantial evidence in this matchup warrants it.
Both games in the regular season went over the total with ease, and tonight’s total hovers a point or two below the closing total of the first two meetings.
The market momentum to the under does make sense — they're betting on a pace depression, along with overdue shotmaking regression on both sides.
However, the schematic matchup points heavily toward the over, particularly from an efficiency lens.
Going against the market is never advised unless you can pinpoint the reason for the move, but given the consistent conference tournament under steam seen this season, it’s fair to assume that’s the primary driver behind it.
