The Montana Grizzlies take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, TN. Tip-off is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network+/ESPN+.
Tennessee is favored by 23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -9000. The total is also set at 141 points.
Here’s my Montana vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for November 13, 2024.
Montana vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee -22.5
My Montana vs Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Montana vs Tennessee Odds, Lines, Pick
| Montana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | +1650 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | -6600 |
- Montana vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -26
- Montana vs Tennessee over/under: 141 points
- Montana vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -6600, Montana +1650
- Montana vs Tennessee best bet: Tennessee -22.5
Montana vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
I like Montana. I’m a big fan of head coach Travis DeCuire and how he’s constructed the roster.
The backcourt tandem of Money Williams and Brandon Whitney is the best in the Big Sky. D-II transfer Kai Johnson is another excellent scoring guard with a penchant for getting downhill while canning over 40% of his 3s. Reigning Big Sky Sixth Man of the Year Te’Jon Sawyer is a skillful interior scorer, while Pepperdine transfer Malik Moore is a solid stretch frontcourt option.
But Coach DeCuire has never had such little continuity; only 35% of last year’s minutes return. The Grizzlies lost three of their top five scorers from last year’s squad — Aanen Moody, Dischon Thomas and Josh Vazquez combined for 38 points per game in 2023-24.
While DeCuire has a solid three-man returning core, he recruited eight newcomers to round out the rotation. It might take some time to piece together the puzzle, partially explaining Montana’s 31-point loss to Oregon last Friday (as 16.5-point ‘dogs).
I also wonder if these Grizzlies will shoot as much as last year’s. Moody, Thomas and Vazquez canned 211 of Montana’s 277 triples last season. The guys on this year’s roster — incoming and returning — look more comfortable scoring on the low block.
That’s a significant problem against Tennessee, which consistently ranks among the nation’s best interior defenses with head coach Rick Barnes calling the shots.
The Vols ranked eighth nationally in 2-point shooting allowed last year (44%) and in the 92nd percentile of D-I squads in at-the-rim field goal attempts allowed per game (10). They wall off the interior better than anyone because they’re disciplined and aggressive in the gaps.
While they lost Jonas Aidoo in the offseason, Ohio State transfer Felix Okpara might be a better interior anchor. It’s worth mentioning he’s been playing through a hip injury, but he managed 27 minutes against Louisville, helping his team hold the Cardinals to 55 points at .71 PPP.
Point guard Zakai Ziegler is an overwhelming point-of-attack perimeter defender, so the Vols will never struggle to defend the pick-and-roll. However, they tend to hedge ball screens, which can leave the Vols weak to crisp perimeter passing and spot-up shooting — they ranked sub-300th nationally in 3-point rate allowed last season.
Moore is the one Montana player who could exploit that vulnerability, given his three-level off-ball scoring ability as a stretch four. But, for some unexplained reason, he has yet to play a minute through the team’s first three games.
On the other end of the court, I’m uncertain if Tennessee is fully button-upped on offense with all the incoming moving pieces — the Vols are starting three transfers.
Coach Barnes runs a flex-motion offense predicated on continuity motion sets, specifically off-ball screen and cutting actions. While guys like Chaz Lanier and Igor Milicic Jr. theoretically fit well in that system, it might take a few weeks for the cohesion, communication and chemistry to start clicking.
However, I don’t foresee many issues in this matchup because Montana is weak defending the interior and in the rim protection department. Last year’s squad allowed 34 paint points per game (24th percentile) and 1.23 cutting PPP (27th percentile).
The Grizzlies didn’t address that issue in the portal; instead, they got smaller after losing the 6-foot-9 Thomas and 6-foot-10 Blake Jones.
While Montana could hang with Tennessee’s off-ball screening actions, the Vols should freely cut and rim-run. Ziegler has been consistently improving and progressing as a facilitator — he has already had 16 assists through two games.
He needs to cut down on the turnovers (15 through two games), but I don’t expect Montana’s passive defense to force that issue (334th nationally in defensive turnover rate last season).
Ultimately, my handicap comes down to Montana’s two-way interior play. The Grizzlies won’t be able to score on the interior and won’t be able to defend the interior.
Of similar importance, Tennessee has shown a penchant for playing more up-tempo basketball, sneaking up to 80th nationally in adjusted tempo and 24th in average offensive possession length last year.
If the Vols push the pace on Wednesday, that’ll help them cover the three-touchdown spread.
Pick: Tennessee -22.5
