Colorado State and New Mexico both comfortably won their opening round matchups in the Mountain West conference tournament Wednesday, setting up an enticing quarterfinal round Thursday in Las Vegas.
The league had seven teams that were highly competitive with one another and close in the conference standings, and six of those seven will face off against one another in the final three games of the day.
Top seed Utah State tips off the action with the largest spread of the day, as the Aggies are 12-point favorites against Fresno State after the Bulldogs pulled the upset against Wyoming on Wednesday.
The other three games are all within 4.5-point spreads, and the league is sure to replicate more late drama given how it played out during the regular season.
Here are my thoughts on the best bets for all four Mountain West conference tournament quarterfinals.
No. 1 Utah State vs. No. 9 Fresno State, 3:00 p.m. ET
Utah State closed as a 10.5-point favorite on the road at Fresno State on Feb. 27, and the Bulldogs have tumbled in the efficiency metrics by a couple points since then. It's surprising to see them as only 12-point favorites here. The market closed the Wyoming line two points higher than the KenPom projection of Wyoming -5, and now the opener for this game is right in line with the KenPom projection.
Fresno State had a nice win against Wyoming on Wednesday, but this isn't a great matchup on paper for the Bulldogs. The Aggies are an elite rim offense; they have the best 2-point field goal percentage in the Mountain West and rank in the top 40 nationally in near proximity attempt rate and field goal percentage, per Haslametrics.
The Bulldogs have almost no rim protection to slow down the Danny Sprinkle offense. Fresno State is 324th in near proximity field goal percentage allowed and it is not efficient at all offensively around the rim itself.
It's true that the Aggies have run well relative to their underlying ShotQuality metrics to get to this point, but they're being deflated by the market by multiple points in a friendly matchup for them. I'd lay 12 points or better on Utah State to begin tournament play. One win should not trick you into forgetting that Fresno State closed with six losses and four of them by at least 20 points.
Verdict: Utah State -12 or Better
No. 4 UNLV vs. No. 5 San Diego State, 5:30 p.m. ET
UNLV is always a tricky handicap in this tournament because the games are played on its home court, but it's not a true home-court advantage because the crowd is much less partisan. The Aztecs traditionally travel well for this event, but the Rebels are in much more desperate need of the win given they are auto-bid or bust.
The Runnin' Rebels typically win by forcing a ton of turnovers, which makes it all the more interesting that UNLV beat San Diego State in the same arena on March 5 despite forcing just eight turnovers. The market is clearly catching onto the fact that UNLV has slowed its pace dramatically down the stretch run. They played a 60-possession game with San Diego State and 61 with Nevada to close the regular season. Five of the Runnin' Rebels' last 10 games were played with 61 possessions or fewer, which happened just one time in the first 20 games of the season.
The first game of the season against the Aztecs finished with 67 possessions. Everything about this matchup screams to take the Under. Both defenses want to force you to shoot the ball from the outside and both defenses are good at forcing turnovers. That means a lot of empty possessions and jump shots, which neither team is good at making this season. These are the two best perimeter defenses in the Mountain West, and we have a lot of evidence now of San Diego State going full boa constrictor defense in a tournament setting under Brian Dutcher.
San Diego State didn't have a single notable conference win against the other quality teams. In six meetings against the rest of the top seven away from home, the Aztecs were 0-6 straight up.
This game will be a grind in the half-court, especially down the stretch. The market is corrected for the low-scoring matchup, but I'd still bet the Under at 132.5 and will look to play live under if there's early offense.
Verdict: Under 132.5
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No. 2 Nevada vs. No. 7 Colorado State, 9:00 p.m. ET
Colorado State's overall statistical profile is a bit peculiar given what we know about its personnel and history under Niko Medved. The Rams consistently generate easy 2s at the rim as much as any offense in the country, and that's once again true this year. That's normal. Colorado State is undersized and lacks real rim protection, but it actually has the best 2-point defense in the Mountain West this season. That's unusual. Offensively, they've struggled to make shots from the outside consistently since league play began, which again goes against their offensive scouting report as potent shotmakers.
It's stunning to me that this collection of talent — which isn't well rated by EvanMiya.com's player ratings defensively — managed the defensive season that it did. For that reason, I'm a bit skeptical of the Rams' defense here in March. Even San Jose State made 55% of its 2s in the opening round game Wednesday.
Nevada did sweep the season series, including a matchup in Fort Collins that Kenan Blackshear didn't play for Nevada. The Wolf Pack love to rely on their elite shot makers to hit mid-range shots, get to the free-throw line and use the post-up offense. Generally speaking, those are areas where the Rams should struggle defensively.
Despite liking the matchup on paper for Nevada to control the interior and be a tick or two better than Colorado State, you're paying a recency bias tax with this line at Nevada -2.5. The Rams closed -6.5 at home two weeks ago.
Since Feb. 1, the Wolf Pack are the 13th-most efficient team in the country, and almost all of that improvement is driven by 3-point variance. I recommended a bet on Nevada at +550 to win the Mountain West pre-tourney, but cannot lay -2.5 on the Wolf Pack here.
Verdict: Pass
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 New Mexico, 11:30 p.m. ET
Jamal Mashburn did play Wednesday against Air Force, so he should be good to go for the Lobos in a do-or-die game for their NCAA Tournament hopes. A win would likely put New Mexico in Dayton, while a loss will likely leave it out of the field come Sunday. Mashburn's negative defensive rating leaves real questions as to how much he's a positive for the Lobos, but this is a classic matchup of backcourt vs. frontcourt. The Broncos swept the season series because they dominated the glass in one meeting and Max Rice went nuclear in another.
Rice scored 35 points and hit seven 3s in The Pit to win, but Boise State dominated the offensive glass in both meetings. I'm not totally sure the Lobos have a solution for that. In a coin flip game, Boise State had a 37% and 41% offensive rebounding rate. Boise State is likely to get more rebounds and make more 3s, which puts more pressure on the shotmaking of the New Mexico guards to overcome that.
I personally thought we'd get Boise State as an underdog here given that New Mexico is in a must-win spot and the market has loved to overcorrect for these spots. I think a coin flip is exactly right for this price, and would bet New Mexico if the line got to +2.5 in the other direction.
Boise State has two issues: Its efficiency is worse when facing stronger opponents and it is also generally worse in up-tempo games. Given how much New Mexico loves to push the pace, the Broncos would rather see this game played in the half court.
Note:It is interesting that almost no tournament tax is being placed on the total in the late night game. Usually, you'd see the total open 2-4 points lower than the regular season or typical KenPom projection, and that is the case for the first three games of the day.
Verdict: Bet New Mexico at +2.5, Boise State at +2.5 | Otherwise pass and look to live trade this high-scoring affair
