Tonight, one team will fulfill its dream of cutting down the nets in Houston as the UConn Huskies take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the National Championship Game.
While UConn is a four seed, it's a surprise to no one that it's here. The Huskies won every non-conference game (16-0) by double digits and every NCAA tournament game by at least 13 points.
San Diego State has been one of the top programs on the West Coast for much of the last two decades. However, it lost in the first round in each of its previous three trips to the NCAA tournament.
As a conference, the Mountain West had lost 10 NCAA tournament games before SDSU’s opening-round win over Charleston.
Since, San Diego State has knocked out top overall seed Alabama in the Sweet 16, followed by wins over UConn’s fellow Big East member, Creighton, and Florida Atlantic.
San Diego State will be looking to become the first non-power conference school to win the national title since UNLV in 1990.
With this being the last game of the season, I have cooked up a Same Game Parlay via DraftKings.
Let’s end the season with a bang.
(For more context on Same Game Parlays, including why it's so important to keep in mind that they are for entertainment only and are negative expected value, see DraftKings’ Mispriced Same Game Parlay Highlights Bigger Concerns For Sports Betting Industry.)
Same Game Parlay Odds: +1400
- Adama Sanogo To Score 15 Points (-185)
- Lamont Butler To Score 8 Points (-160)
- Joey Calcaterra To Score 5 Points (+105)
- Andre Jackson Jr. Over 4.5 Assists (-185)
- Under 136.5 Points (-195)
Adama Sanogo To Score 15 Points (-185)
UConn forward Adama Sanogo has been one of the most consistent players in the NCAA tournament, and his play is a big reason why UConn is still playing.
He's averaging 17.2 points per game for the season, and he has upped that average to 20.2 in the NCAA tournament.
Sanogo has scored 15 points in four of his last five games. The one game he missed this mark was against Gonzaga, where the Zags sent double teams at him for much of the game. He finished with six assists instead.
Sanogo’s minutes have remained consistent, as well. He's averaging 26.5 minutes per game for the season and 26 minutes over his last 10 games despite several blowouts.
Freshman Donovan Clingan does a great job of spelling him and keeping him fresh.
Sanogo’s points line is 16.5 and 15.5 in DraftKings’ Same Game Parlay. I would play either as a straight bet. I'm watering it down here since it's a parlay.
Lamont Butler To Score 8 Points (-160)
San Diego State's Matt Bradley scored 17 points in the first round and then averaged six points per game over his next three. He did snap out of his brief slump with 21 points against FAU. However, while Bradley struggled, guard Lamont Bradley picked up the slack.
Butler is averaging 10 points per game in the NCAA tournament. He has scored eight points in three of those five games, including games of 12 and 18 points. He finished with seven points in another game in that span.
Butler is averaging 8.7 points on the season and his line is 8.5 at both FanDuel and DraftKings. He's averaging eight points over his last 10 games. However, that works just fine for this parlay since DraftKings offers eight as an option in its Same Game Parlay.
At -160, it offers fair odds for a parlay piece, and we'll just need Butler to hit his average over his last 10 games.
Joey Calcaterra To Score Five Points (+105)
This leg may cause you to sweat a little bit. However, Calcaterra is averaging 5.8 points this season and 6.7 over his last 10 games.
That average is skewed by a 15-point outing against St. John’s.
Despite that, Calcaterra has scored six points in six of his last 10 games. The one game he went under, he didn't attempt a shot in 11 minutes. That was also the fewest minutes he's played in his past 10 games.
He's scored five points in nine of his last 10 games. Just dropping the line by one point, his hit rate increases by 30%.
Additionally, Calcaterra’s points line is 4.5 on FanDuel at -106. However, you can get plus odds in DraftKings' Same Game Parlay.
If he does hit, the one point may not matter much. Calcaterra has made at least one 3 in nine of his last 10 games and two 3s in six of his last 10 games.
UConn has moved the ball incredibly well in the NCAA tournament, averaging 20.2 assists on 29.6 field goals per game. The ball seems to find its way to Calcaterra for wide open 3s.
While two first-half 3s would be preferred so we get this leg out of the way, a 3 and a layup would work fine, as well.
Andre Jackson Jr. Over 4.5 Assists (-185)
At his post-game press-conference, UConn head coach Dan Hurley offered this quote about his team.
Dan Hurley: “This isn’t that hard. I have three NBA players and we put the right pieces around them.” pic.twitter.com/GxwBCqt363
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) April 2, 2023
The two obvious pros on this team are Sanogo and guard Jordan Hawkins. The third was up for a bit of a debate. However, I believe he was referring to Andre Jackson Jr.
In fact, Jackson’s role as the glue guy on this team reminds me of the role Andre Iguodala has played over the course of the Warriors' dynasty.
Like Iguodala, Jackson can fill up a stat sheet without scoring a lot of points. He's hit his PRA line (18.5 tonight) in eight of his last 10 games. For this leg, I'm going to focus on his assists.
Jackson’s assists line is 5.5 (+110), which he has hit in six of his last 10 games. DraftKings offers his line at 4.5 in the Same Game Parlay. That increases his hit rate to 70% over his past 10 games.
He also just missed this line with four assists against Miami.
I like his chances of finishing with five tonight.
Under 136.5 Total Points (-195)
If you play this parlay with the first four legs, the odds are +625. However, the negative correlation of adding the under causes the odds to spike. While I like these players in these particular spots, ultimately I think this game goes under.
These teams are both top-10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — SDSU fourth and UConn eighth.
In the NCAA tournament, the total has gone under in three out of five games for both teams. San Diego State held Alabama to 64 points while UConn has limited Gonzaga and Miami to 56.5 points per game over its last two games.
Both teams also rank in the 200s in Adjusted Tempo.
While I like the under at 132.5, I'm adding a little cushion here since it's a parlay. Additionally, adding the under gives this parlay a nice boost while not really conflicting with the other legs or the game result.
Even if this game is extremely low-scoring, it won’t end 0-0. Our legs only need about 40 points (depending on how Jackson gets the assists), which means there's still plenty of room to fall under 137 points.
If you're someone that wants nothing to do with unders, +625 is still solid odds for a parlay.
Alternatively, you could do Sanogo over 15.5 points, Butler to score 10 points, Calcaterra to score five points and Jackson over 4.5 assists for +900 on DraftKings.
