Last season, the NC State men’s basketball team snuck into the NCAA tournament for the first time since head coach Kevin Keatts’ inaugural 2017-18 campaign.
NC State began this season with a promising 3-0 start in ACC play. However, the Wolfpack (17-11, 9-8) have regressed since then and are currently completely off the bubble, tied for sixth in the ACC with three games left in the regular season.
So, NC State's return to the Big Dance largely hinges on whether or not they can muster any March magic to claim the ACC Tournament title over far superior in-state teams North Carolina and Duke.
Spoiler alert: it won’t. And I'll tell you why that saves you a disappointment on North Carolina betting apps.
It wouldn’t be wise to bet on NC State as ACC Tournament champs. UNC and Duke are far too imposing to conquer.
This NC State squad won’t be recreating a miraculous run like the 1983 national squad that caught fire in the conference tournament en route to legendary status.
Simply put, NC State doesn’t have the offensive firepower or defensive prowess to claim the conference tournament crown for the first time since 1987.
And despite posting just one losing season, Keatts’ job security could be on the line based on how this campaign ends.
Heading into this week, Keatts was still projecting confidence in the media.
“We can only control what we can control," Keatts told On3. "We gotta win games and figure out what the number [is]. As you guys know, every team has a number attached to them instead of how good you’re playing and how good your league is. Unfortunately, it happens that way. We’ve got a lot of fighting in us.”
However, that fight is rapidly diminishing. NC State lost at Florida State, 90-83, on Feb. 27 and ranks No. 120 in RPI. Keatts lamented another lackluster defensive effort in the Quad 2 loss.
“Once again, our defense didn’t travel,” Keatts told the Raleigh News & Observer. “It’s hard to win any ACC game when you give up 90 points.”
The Wolfpack wrap up the regular season with a road contest at No. 9 North Carolina on March 2, the home finale against No. 10 Duke on March 4 and a matchup at home against Pitt on March 9.
The upcoming Quad 1 games against UNC and Duke, the top two teams in the ACC, will provide litmus tests. But an upset against either is a long shot.
NC State’s best victory of the season to date is a 76-60 home win over Virginia (No. 46 RPI) on Jan. 6. The Wolfpack have squandered too many opportunities for quality victories. That’s why they have an all-or-nothing path to the NCAA Tournament.
The Pack are 1-7 in Quad 1 games, tied for the 18th-most losses in the nation in that category.
NC State fell to North Carolina, 67-54, in a Jan. 10 home matchup, which marked its first ACC loss of the season. The Wolfpack shot their worst field-goal percentage (27.3%) against the Tar Heels since 1954 in the defeat.
Senior guard DJ Horne leads NC State in points but tallied only six while missing 14 of his 16 shots in the loss.
The Wolfpack actually slowed down the ACC’s top offense but still struggled with transition defense, as UNC doubled NC State in fast-break points, 18-9.
Don’t expect NC State to hold North Carolina's offense in check again in the rematch. The dynamic senior duo of RJ Davis and Armando Bacot will anchor the Tar Heels to a better offensive showing.
The lone matchup of the season against Duke will also be daunting for the Pack. The Blue Devils are 9-2 in their last 11 games, asserting themselves as a dangerous threat for the ACC Tournament title.
Duke’s offense ranks second in the ACC, making it another uphill battle for a middling NC State defense that ranks ninth in the conference. The Wolfpack don’t have an answer in the frontcourt for Duke center Kyle Filipowski, who leads the Blue Devils in points, rebounds and blocks.
There’s a reason this time of year features the madness of March. The single-elimination format of conference tournaments lends itself to randomness and chaos. That aforementioned 1983 NC State squad represents the ultimate example.
The jubilation of the late Jim Valvano is still vivid and palpable to this day.
No team can be counted out, even if it appears listless or devoid of any real hope. That’s the beauty of this sport and why it annually captivates the nation during the postseason.
Horne has drained the eighth-most 3-pointers in a single season for NC State. If the ignitable guard catches fire, NC State could steal its opening game.
But even the most ardent NC State fan will admit anything beyond that is extremely unlikely.
And fair or not, the disappointing end to the season will result in questions about Keatts’ status. Add in the new reality of the transfer portal, and some players could also elect to bolt for greener pastures.
Buckle up, because it’s about to be a turbulent offseason in Raleigh.
