As we enter March, the NCAA tournament picture is becoming a little more clear. Teams have built the bulk of their respective resumes for the tournament committee to ultimately review and make determinations upon Selection Sunday.
Like many of the resumes HR departments across the country review every day, some don’t quite tell the full story. Here are five programs that may have a little more hype than substance as the games get more meaningful in March.
Kansas Jayhawks
It seems unusual not to trust Bill Self in March, but this has been an unusual year for Kansas. The Jayhawks lost at Allen Fieldhouse after holding a halftime lead for the first time in 71 games on Tuesday.
Kevin McCullar Jr. was forced to watch in street clothes on the bench as his team faltered down the stretch, a sight that's become all too familiar for Jayhawk fans.
McCullar has now been sidelined in five of his team’s last eight games by what the team is calling a bone bruise in his knee.
Self has been extremely pessimistic about McCullar’s chances of returning at all this year, especially considering Self said he’d likely not insert McCullar back into the lineup for the NCAA tournament unless he's able to play at some point prior to the Round of 64.
Prior to his injury, McCullar was playing at an All-American level. His offensive improvements this year have made him a leading scorer in the Big 12 and a true NBA first-round prospect.
Yet, it’s his defense that Self might miss the most. On nights when the Jayhawks go through offensive struggles, Self preaches that his team must win by making the opponent play worse than their standard.
Effort plays and energy — things McCullar provides nightly — are typically ways the Jayhawks steal wins on nights they don’t play their best.
Kansas’ strange year features wins against stalwarts like UConn, Houston, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Jayhawks have also managed to lose to West Virginia, UCF and Kansas State in games where they held second-half leads.
Kansas simply hasn’t displayed the consistency necessary to win six consecutive games, particularly on the offensive end.
I’d look for a potential upset of Kansas in the Round of 32 depending on its matchup.
Washington State Cougars
In the preseason, Kyle Smith’s Washington State Cougars were picked to finish ninth in the Pac-12 by his fellow coaches. After a win at Arizona last week, Washington State solidified its case to earn an at-large bid and possibly even topple Arizona at the top of the Pac-12 standings by season’s end.
However, Wazzu immediately followed that win with a bad loss at Arizona State that ultimately may allow Arizona to still win the conference’s regular season title.
Beyond competing well in a fairly weak Pac-12, the Cougars’ best win came against Boise State on a somewhat neutral floor in Spokane. There’s truly nothing else that stands out as a noteworthy win on Washington State’s resume.
The Cougars' style of play and preferred tempo is a major reason for their success in league competition. Yet, I also think it could be their downfall in the NCAA tournament.
Smith’s team likes to slow the tempo down and suffocate the opponent’s offensive transition opportunities. Low-possession games may allow the Cougars to hang around against superior competition in the tournament, but it could also mean inferior opponents may have a chance to keep it close throughout and pounce late.
Utah State Aggies
Danny Sprinkle left Montana State to take the opportunity to coach in the Mountain West and man the sidelines in Logan for Utah State. The Aggies had low expectations entering Sprinkle’s first season, beginning the year outside KenPom’s top 100.
The Aggies' only non-conference loss was to a well-coached Bradley team on the road in overtime. Sprinkle followed that loss with 15 consecutive wins, quickly building a confidence among his team that's translated into Mountain West play.
Utah State has lost only once at home this year: a 15-point loss to Nevada a month ago. The home-court advantage in Logan has helped the Aggies earn a place atop the standings in an ultra-competitive Mountain West.
Other than its regular-season finale at home against New Mexico, Utah State's remaining schedule is favorable. It would be difficult to imagine Utah State could fall out of the NCAA tournament picture completely, but I think its prospects in the tournament aren’t great.
I wouldn’t be inclined to take the Aggies to win the Mountain West Tournament crown, even if they ultimately wind up with the top seed. The Mountain West is extremely balanced among the top six or seven teams in the standings, and Utah State is likely to have a shorter price than it deserves if it draws the top seed.
Furthermore, the Aggies lack depth after losing forward Max Agbonkpolo to a season-ending foot injury in January.
The Aggies will have a tough time playing on consecutive days in the Mountain West against opponents that may be able to simply throw more fresh bodies than Sprinkle’s team can handle.
Even as the Aggies have continued to earn victories, their efficiency metrics on both ends have been in decline.
I’d expect Utah State to fit the narrative of Mountain West teams that disappoint in the NCAA tournament.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina, like Utah State, chose to go in a different direction in terms of coaching after last season.
Also like the Aggies, the Gamecocks have seen immediate success to validate their hire.
Lamont Paris’ Gamecocks had an extremely soft non-conference schedule, which was likely by design to allow the brand new roster to mesh with their new coach in the beginning portion of the season.
Consequently, most fans waited to get excited until the team began playing proven SEC opponents. Wins against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Tennessee quickly turned any potential apprehension into confirmation of the team’s improvement under Paris.
Paris has certainly done enough to lead this program back to the NCAA tournament, yet it'll be very difficult to seed. South Carolina profiles very similarly to Missouri last year in Dennis Gates’ first season. Its resume is impressive and full of notable victories without any eyesore losses.
However, the efficiency metrics don’t match its solid resume. The Gamecocks rank 47th in the NET and 46th in KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency metric, which would usually be the rankings profile of a team more squarely on the bubble.
The Gamecocks may end up somewhere around a 5- or 6-seed in the NCAA tournament, where I believe they'll be ripe for an upset. They'll likely play one of the top mid-major programs in the country or a bubble team thrilled simply to have earned a spot in the field.
South Carolina plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and wins with interior defense and rebounding. Yet, the Gamecocks don't have the raw athleticism and strength that'll intimidate a mid-major.
If they're overseeded — as I expect — consider taking South Carolina’s opponent in the first round on the moneyline.
Prepare for some of the best North Carolina sportsbook promos for when North Carolina sports betting goes live on March 11.
South Florida Bulls
In betting, it's important not to have recency bias. South Florida’s run through the AAC this year is certainly an example of the dangers of recency bias.
The Bulls haven’t lost since Jan. 7 to tally enough wins to surprisingly win the AAC’s regular season title. South Florida has certainly benefited from the league’s unbalanced schedule, allowing the Bulls to avoid playing many of the league’s best teams away from home.
Still, winning 13 consecutive games in a relatively good league is noteworthy. Such a winning streak led to South Florida breaking into the AP Poll for the first time this week.
So what is it that makes South Florida overrated exactly? The recent memory of the 13-game winning streak has wiped away many concerning memories South Florida fans likely have.
The Bulls dropped home games to Central Michigan and Maine before losing road games at Hofstra and UMass just after Thanksgiving. In its last non-conference tune-up game, South Florida barely squeaked out a 73-70 win over Alabama State, a team that sits outside the top 300 in KenPom.
Amir Abdur-Rahim is yet another example of an athletic department making a seemingly wonderful hire. Abdur-Rahim mirrors Sprinkle and Paris in his ability to deliver concrete results in year one and bring buzz back to a program that's struggled mightily in recent years.
Despite being ranked, South Florida has no prayer to make the NCAA tournament as an at-large selection because of the terrible early losses the Bulls suffered.
The Bulls must win the AAC Tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament, which I don't anticipate. FAU is still the class of the league — despite a few shaky performances — and SMU, Memphis, North Texas and Charlotte are teams fully capable of knocking off top-seeded South Florida in the conference tournament.
Even if the Bulls manage to win the AAC and wind up a 12-seed in the bracket, look elsewhere if seeking a sexy 12-seed over 5-seed upset.
