One thing for certain about sports is that it’s predictably unpredictable.
Teams entering a season with high hopes can flame out while those who appear to be long shots might turn into legit title threats.
That’s the case each year in college basketball, and sure enough we’ve seen some major line movement for NCAA championship odds compared to what they were when they opened earlier this season. BetMGM revealed 10 teams that saw the biggest odds movement as we approach the start of March Madness, with six heading in a positive direction and four tanking.
Those whose stocks have soared include UConn (+1200 to +400), Houston (+2200 to +600), Purdue (+1800 to +650), Arizona (+1600 to +1200), UNC (+2500 to +1300) and Iowa State (+5000 to +1800). UConn, Houston, Purdue and North Carolina are all 1-seeds in this year’s tournament while Arizona and Iowa State are 2-seeds.
On the other hand, past powerhouses Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and Michigan State have seen their stocks tumble. Kentucky went from +1400 to +2500, Duke +1200 to +3000, Kansas +1600 to +4000 and Michigan State +2500 to +10000. Kentucky enters the tournament as a 3-seed while Duke and Kansas are 4-seeds and Michigan State a ninth.
Meanwhile, the favorites at BetMGM along with those with the highest ticket percentage and largest handle all come from this group, as well. UConn (+400), Houston (+600) and Purdue (+650) have the lowest odds. UConn also has the highest ticket percentage (10.8%) followed by UNC (10.1%) and Kentucky (10.0). The three teams also have the highest handle percentage with UConn at 18.3%, UNC 11.2% and Kentucky 10.9%.
The fortunes of the latter two teams in particular will have a significant impact on sportsbooks.
“Kentucky is our biggest liability to win the NCAA Tournament,” explained BetMGM Senior Trader Michael Ranftle. “However, with the recent launch of legal sports betting in North Carolina, the Tar Heels are becoming a big loser for the sportsbook."
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