The NCAA Tournament First Four tips off on Tuesday with two matchups, including UNC taking on San Diego State for the right to face Ole Miss in the Round of 64.
I have a player prop I'm targeting for this matchup between 11 seeds.
Read below for my NCAA Tournament First Four player prop on UNC's Elliot Cadeau.
North Carolina Tar Heels First Four Player Prop
Elliott Cadeau Under 5.5 Assists (-156 @ FanDuel)
I'm taking Cadeau under 5.5 assists at bet365 or FanDuel, and under 4.5 (+130) is playable as a "chute" at BetMGM.
San Diego State plays at a slower pace than average, as it's sixth in effective field goal percentage defense. The Aztecs force turnovers and foul at top-60 and top-100 rates, respectively, which means fewer possessions will end in shots.
The Aztecs also have a lower assist rate allowed than average on made shots.
In addition to those factors, Cadeau tends to take a higher percentage of his team's shots against Quad 1 opponents (this would qualify as a Quad 1 game), and his assist rate dips in those same spots.
Every underlying factor hits here, so I'm fading the UNC sophomore guard in this First Four duel.
