Texas Southern vs. Kansas Odds
| Texas Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
No. 1 seed Kansas (28-6, 14-4 in the Big 12) will open NCAA Tournament play against No. 16 seed Texas Southern (19-12, 13-5 in the SWAC) in Fort Worth.
The No. 4 ranked and 2022 Big 12 Tournament champion Jayhawks are practically a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. This will be their 50th all-time appearance in the tournament, where they have an 109-48 record.
Texas Southern took a more arduous and less traveled road to the Round of 64. Winning the SWAC as tournament futures favorites, it advanced to the First Four. After defeating Texas A&M-CC in the First Four on Tuesday, 76-67, the Tigers clinched their spot in the Round of 64 against Kansas.
This will be the fifth meeting between the two programs, with Kansas leading the all-time series, 4-0. The last time these two programs met in 2017, Kansas secured a blowout victory, 114-71.
Can Texas Southern play spoiler in Kansas’ 32nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance? Or will the seasoned Tigers make history in their second straight Big Dance?
Texas Southern Tigers
Following in lockstep with the persona of the team this season, Texas Southern relied on excellent defense to stymie Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the First Four. The Tigers had nine blocks, four steals and 45 rebounds in the game. Their 26-for-35 free throw shooting was the difference maker.
Junior guard PJ Henry came on for Texas Southern in the conference tournament, winning the SWAC MVP. Henry helps round out a trio of capable scorers — Joirdon Karl Nicholas (9.5 PPG), John Walker III (9.4 PPG) and Bryson Etienne (8.4 PPG) — for the Tigers this season.
Given the Tigers’ success in 2021-22, it’s surprising that no player earned All-SWAC honors. However, Texas Southern has languished on offense this season overall, ranking 280th in the nation in AdjO.
Defensively, Texas Southern is much better, ranking 105th in the nation in AdjD. The Tigers excel at shot defense, ranking 11th in the nation. The Tigers’ defense will need everything they have — and more — against the potent Kansas offense.
Texas Southern struggled outside of the SWAC this season, going 2-7 against non-conference Division I competition. The Tigers were 1-2 in Quad 1 games, beating Florida in convincing fashion, 69-54.
Kansas Jayhawks
By Doug Ziefel
Bill Self's Jayhawks proved to be one of the best teams in the country, as they conquered the toughest conference in college basketball, not once but twice, winning both the regular season and Big 12 conference titles.
Kansas is an ultra-talented offensive team led by the Big 12 Player of the Year, Ochai Agbaji. Agbaji is one of the best pure scorers in the country, as he averaged nearly 20 points per game this season.
However, the Jayhawks are not a one-man show. They also have veteran big man David McCormack, who was third in the nation in offensive rebounding rate.
We also saw the return of prized transfer Remy Martin in the conference tournament. Martin had missed a majority of the season with a knee issue, but came back in time to help propel the Jayhawks when they needed it most. Look for Martin to be a significant contributor in the tourney.
For all its offensive firepower, Kansas is not far behind on the defensive end. The Jayhawks are 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 25th in 3-point percentage allowed. That latter stat is important to avoiding upsets in the tournament, as they can limit the variance of the outcome.
Texas Southern vs. Kansas Betting Pick
Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament, No. 16 seeds are 1-143. Go ahead and make that 1-144 after this one is over because there is no way this Kansas team is getting upset here.
Kansas has a meaningful advantage in almost every statistical category, except defensive effective field goal percentage and offensive rebound percentage. The discrepancy in the two aforementioned stats can be mitigated away by the Jayhawks’ strength of schedule advantage.
I am projecting Kansas as 25.31-point favorites behind its offense that ranks fifth in the nation in AdjO. Additionally, I am projecting a total of 140.39 points, attributable to the unwavering Kansas and Texas Southern defenses, which rank 24th and 105th nationally in AdjD, respectively.
I recommend laying the huge chalk and taking the under. Also, if you have the capability, I like a same game parlay with the Kansas alternate team total of 72.5 points and an alternate line of Kansas -11.5 that pays -265.
Note: Use both of these numbers (below) as your limit and defer to an alternate same game parlay (above) if they are not available
Pick: Kansas -21.5 | Under 144.5
