The 2024 NCAA Tournament is here!
March Madness tips off this week, and everyone is doing their best to fill out the perfect bracket.
Which team will cut down the nets as the new national champion? Will UConn go back-to-back? Can Purdue finally shake its history of upsets? Who will be this year's Cinderella? Who's the perfect Final Four sleeper?
Much of the fun of March Madness is that we have no idea — that's why they call it madness! — but it turns out we can learn a lot about the future by looking at the past.
The NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 to reach the modern era, and though it's at 68 teams now, we'll still refer to the Round of 64 as the "first round" and those final 64 as the tournament proper.
Here are 68 things you need to know before filling out the perfect 2024 March Madness bracket.
The best North Carolina sports betting apps are now live! Learn more and register for the best bonus offers.
First Four games
1) A First Four winner has won at least one additional game in the Round of 64 in every NCAA Tournament except 2019 since the advent of the play-in.
2) In five of the 12 tournaments featuring a play-in — almost half of them! — a First Four winner made at least the Sweet 16. Two (2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA) even made the Final Four, and last March saw two First Four winners go on to win again, including 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue.
3) Both Boise State and Colorado State will represent the Mountain West in the First Four. The MWC is 0-4 in the play-in. Double-digit MWC seeds are 1-26 all-time in the tourney with only six of those losses by seven or fewer points. The MWC has only two upset wins by seeding since 2007 and is only 1-11 all-time against the PAC-12, relevant since Boise State plays Colorado.
4) Pay attention these first few days and consider picking a First Four winner to win at least one more game or two.
East Region
5) UConn is the No. 1 overall seed. Only one of the last nine overall No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, and it's been 11 years since one of them won the national championship. Since 2004, the No. 1 overall seed has made 15 of 18 Sweet 16s (83%), 11 of 18 Elite Eights (61%), just eight of 18 Final Fours (44%) and only three championship games (17%).
6) The Huskies are also the defending national champions. The last national champion to go back-to-back was Florida in 2007. Since then, none of them have even advance past the Sweet 16.
7) In the last 25 years, UConn has made the NCAA Tournament 16 times and won the whole thing five times (31%). As a top-two seed, UConn is 42-9 in the modern tournament, averaging 3.8 wins per berth with two titles. In other words, UConn as a top-two seed almost averages a Final Four appearance with only three losses ever to a team seeded worse than three.
8) San Diego State is the top seed from the Mountain West. The Aztecs were the first MWC team ever to advanced past the Sweet 16 last March. Top-six-seed MWC teams this century are an ugly 10-13, and the conference has a losing tournament record as a seed favorite at 18-19 all-time, though it was 4-0 last March.
9) Auburn is a perfect 11-0 in the first round in the modern tourney but just 8-11 after that. The Tigers have made six Sweet 16s and three Elite Eights, which isn't bad for a school that's been better than a No. 7 seed only four times.
10) The Ivy League has been a reliable source of close calls and upsets in recent years. Since 2010 alone, the Ivy has seven upset wins by 12-or-worse seeds plus three more losses by two points. Ivy teams play smart, hit 3s and don't beat themselves. Yale could be a dangerous underdog.
11) Brigham Young has just one tournament berth since 2015 and has made only one Sweet 16 ever, in 2011 as its best seed (three). BYU is an ugly 9-17 in the modern tourney, but this ties for the Cougars' third-best seed ever in their first Big 12 season.
12) This is the first berth ever for 11-seed Duquesne in the modern tournament. Pittsburgh's Dukes last made the tournament in 1977. The Atlantic 10 is an impressive 11-11 since 2009 for just 11-to-13 seeds, with seven of the 11 teams getting at least one win.
13) As a top-three seed all-time Illinois is 16-7, falling well short of seed expectations including a recent 2021 upset to No. 8-seed Loyola. Coach Brad Underwood has yet to make the Sweet 16, though the Fighting Illini didn't by double digits during the regular season despite facing Marquette, Tennessee and Purdue (twice).
14) Drake might be the most dangerous double-digit seed in the bracket. The lone Missouri Valley rep has never won a tourney game but led eventual Final Four team Miami in the final minutes last March. The MVC won 10 consecutive first-round games from 2012 to 2018 with only one team better than a No. 7 seed. The conference has 12 upset wins as a No. 8 seed or worse since 2010 and eight upsets against top-three seeds this century, all as a No. 7 seed or worse. Drake also has a distinct home advantage located just two hours from Omaha, while Washington State will face a long cross country flight.
15) Iowa State is 20-21 in the modern tourney with one Elite Eight (in 2000) and zero Final Fours.
16) Coach T.J. Otzelberger has done a magnificent job helping the Cyclones overachieve and win the Big 12 Tournament, beating Houston twice this season despite beginning the campaign unranked. Otzelberger is only 2-4 in the NCAA Tournament, but three of those losses came as a big underdog at South Dakota State, his first-round opponent.
17) Iowa State received just two votes in the preseason coaches poll and none in the AP poll. Not one of the 36 top-two seeds that started the season unranked in the AP poll but finished in the top 10 went on to make the Final Four. In fact, 15 of 23 such two seeds like the Cyclones went on to lose on opening weekend. That includes both one-seed Purdue and two-seed Marquette last March.
West Region
18) North Carolina has the most No. 1 seeds in the modern tournament, and UNC as a No. 1 seed has been one of the safest bets on the board in March. The Tar Heels won the title as a No. 1 seed in 1993, 2005, 2009 and 2017, and they're 52-9 in the modern tournament as a No. 1 seed, averaging 4.0 wins per year.
19) Put differently, UNC as a No. 1 seed averages a Final Four appearance — pretty impressive! In fact, No. 1 UNC has only one loss ever to a team worse than a No. 5 seed (No. 9-seed Boston College in 1994) and only three other losses to a team seeded lower than two, all of which went on to make the Final Four.
20) History says the Final Four team from the West will either be 1-seed UNC or the team — likely a top-five seed — that beats them.
21) Michigan State and Tom Izzo are always dangerous in March. Izzo's Spartans have made eight Final Fours in 24 appearances — one in every three appearances! — including three times as a No. 5 seed or worse. Izzo is especially tough in NCAA Tournament games with just one day of prep, with an incredibly 24-7 record in such games. MSU went 1-5 against teams inside the KenPom top 10 during the regular season, but every loss was by single digits. Izzo has never made the Sweet 16 as worse than a No. 7 seed, and the Spartans have only two Sweet 16s since 2015.
22) Non-Gonzaga WCC teams in the NCAA Tournament are 6-16 this century, and Saint Mary's is 5-11 all-time and 5-9 under Randy Bennett. Grand Canyon has never won a tourney game but represents the WAC, whose last tournament win by an 11 seed or worse was Tulsa in 2003.
23) Alabama has only three Sweet 16s since 1991 and has never made the Final Four. The Crimson Tide have only been a top-four seed four times ever and lost big upsets to Nos. 5, 6 and 10 seeds in three of them.
24) Clemson has only six Sweet 16s in the modern tournament, and Brad Brownell is 2-7 lifetime in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers had five losses by one possession this season. New Mexico is 6-12 in the tourney despite getting a No. 3-7 seed eight times, falling woefully short of expectations. Mountain West double-digit seeds are 1-26 this century.
25) Outside of the 2021 title run, Baylor is 13-10 in the modern tournament, and 11 of those 13 wins have come against double-digit seeds. The Bears won the title as a No. 1 seed. They've been a top-five seed six other times, getting upset by Nos. 6, 7, 12 and 14 seeds but also losing twice to a No. 1 seed in the Elite Eight.
26) The Atlantic 10 is just 6-18 in the tourney since 2015 after Butler left the conference, though Dayton is responsible for the only Sweet 16 during that stretch. Since Butler left, the A10 is just 3-6 as a seed favorite in the NCAA Tournament and an ugly 3-8 in toss-up games with a seed difference of three or fewer spots.
27) Arizona has had its fair share of heartbreak as a top seed in recent years. Everyone remembers Illinois's 15-point comeback win over Arizona in 2005. The No. 1 seed Wildcats lost by one in the Elite Eight to Wisconsin in 2014, then repeated the feat in 2015. They were upset in the Elite Eight by 11-seed Xavier in 2017 by two points. They lost to No. 5 seed Houston as a No. 1 seed in the 2022 Sweet 16, and they became the first team ever to lose twice to a 15-seed when Princeton beat them by four in the opening round last year.
28) No Pac-12 team has won the national championship since Arizona did it in 1997. The conference hasn't even made the title game since 2006. The West Coast has seen five national runners-up this century, including just Arizona (2001) and UCLA (2006) from the Pac-12.
29) The Pac-12 won the first-ever NCAA men's basketball championship (Oregon in 1939) and is tied with the ACC for most national championships all-time with 15 (thanks, UCLA). This is their last chance.
South Region
30) Houston's Kelvin Sampson is one of four men's coaches ever to lead multiple programs to the Final Four, taking Oklahoma in 2002 and then the Cougars in 2021. Sampson is 17-7 as a top-three seed, with those two Final Fours but also five upset losses, four of them to Nos. 5 and 6 seeds.
31) It's been a long road for the Cougars. Houston was a national powerhouse in the early 80s, making three consecutive Final Fours just before the modern 64-team tourney while part of the now-defunct Southwest Conference. The Cougars joined Conference USA from 1996-2013 and made the NCAA Tournament just once without a win. Houston joined the American in 2013 and moved its way up, making each of the last four Sweet 16s, including the 2021 Final Four. Now, finally, Houston joined a power conference this season, its first in the Big 12 and immediately won the conference its first year at 15-3 to grab this No. 1 seed.
32) The Big 12 has just three national championships despite having a top-two seed in 24 of its 26 years — but two of those three titles came in 2021 (Baylor) and 2022 (Kansas), and the conference has had a team in three of the last four national championship games.
33) Nebraska is 0-7 in the modern tournament, but this No. 8 seed ties for the Cornhuskers' third best seed ever. Single-digit seeds seeking their first tourney win are 5-2 this century, including No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic winning last year and going all the way to the Final Four.
34) Wisconsin has won 12 of its last 14 first-round games and made six Sweet 16s since 2011 — half of them!
35) No team in the nation has won more games this season than James Madison (31-3). The Dukes haven't lost since January and won their season opener at then No. 4 Michigan State, and the last three Sun Belt 12 seeds have won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament.
36) Duke is 33-4 in the first round of the modern tournament. The Blue Devils have made the Sweet 16 in 32 of the last 39 tournaments (82%) and have lost to a No. 8 seed or worse only four times in the past 28 years.
37) As a No. 1 seed, Duke is 54-10 with four national championships and six of the 10 losses by three points or less. As any other seed, the Blue Devils drop to 46-20 with just one title, including only three Elite Eights over the past three decades. This is only the fifth time since 1987 that Duke has been a No. 4 seed or worse, with those teams advancing to just two Sweet 16s and never further.
38) Once Duke became all-caps DUKE in the early '90s, it has either been a No. 1 seed or not good enough.
39) North Carolina State has only been a double-digit seed four times but won at least one tournament game in three of those four appearances. The Wolfpack are 10-10 in the NCAA Tournament this century despite only one appearance as better than a No. 7 seed.
40) Under John Calipari, Kentucky is 32-10 in the NCAA Tournament with seven Elite Eights and four Final Fours. The Wildcats average 2.9 wins per appearance under Calipari despite an average seed of 3.3, including berths as No. 4, 4, 5, 6 and 8 seeds.
41) Regardless of seeding, Kentucky under Calipari averages an Elite Eight berth, basically acting as a top-two seed once Calipari has rounded his young team into top form by March.
42) In 18 NCAA Tournaments, Calipari has only five losses to teams seeded four or worse — but three of those came in the last five tournaments to No. 9 seed Kansas State, No. 5 seed Auburn and No. 15 seed St. Peter's.
43) Florida has won eight straight first-round games since 2011, half of them as a 6-seed or worse. The Gators have 11 tourney appearances since 2006 and have arguably met or outperformed seed expectations in every one of those appearances.
44) Marquette's No. 2 seed ties for its best ever in the modern tournament. Shaka Smart memorably led 11-seed VCU to the Final Four in 2011 but is an awful 2-8 since, with upset losses as a 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 seed. Smart had lost a record six straight tourney openers as a 10-seed or better before finally winning last March — only to see his No. 2 seed Golden Eagles immediately upset by 7-seed Michigan State the next round.
45) Few teams had a more impressive start to the season than Marquette, which beat Illinois, Kansas and Texas in nonconference play. But the Eagles also went 1-4 against top conference foes UConn and Creighton with a -62 point differential. Three of those four losses came late without star guard Tyler Kolek, who hasn't played since February. Is Kolek healthy? Which Marquette is the real version? The Golden Eagles were a top-five team in preseason polls.
Midwest Region
46) As a top-three seed, Purdue is just 19-12, falling short of seed expectations in 11 of the 12 appearances with losses to No. 6, 8, 10, 11, 15 and 16 seeds. They lost to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson last March and to 15-seed St. Peter's the year before. The Boilermakers also lost to 13-seed North Texas the season before that as a No. 4 seed.
47) That's as many consecutive upset losses — three — to seeds 13-or-worse as they have all-time Elite Eight appearances. Purdue has never made the Final Four in the modern tournament.
48) The only other 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed went on to win the national championship the following season. Will Purdue follow in Virginia's footsteps?
49) The Big 10 last won a national championship in 2000 (Michigan State). Seven times since, the conference has made the title game but lost.
50) Utah State is 1-13 in modern tourney history. Coach Ryan Odom is 0-1 with the Aggies — but did lead UMBC to the first-ever 16-seed upset victory over Virginia in 2018.
51) Mark Few and Gonzaga have made the Round of 32 in 14 consecutive tournaments and 21 of the last 24. Few is 20-3 in the first round but 12-8 in the second round and just 9-12 after that, with seven Elite Eights and two Final Fours. Gonzaga has lost only twice since January 11, but both losses were against St. Mary's.
52) This No. 4 seed ties for the lowest seed for Kansas since 2000. Bill Self is 9-7 as a No. 3 or 4 seed in his career without a single win against an 8-seed or better. Self is 36-6 in NCAA Tournament games with a full week to prepare but just 20-16 in games with just one day of prep. In the last two decades, Kansas under Self has been upset by No. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 and 14 seeds, including six upset losses on opening weekend.
53) Kansas lost its top two scorers, Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, to injury in a 30-point blowout loss to Houston in the regular-season finale. Those two didn't play in the Big 12 tournament, and the Jayhawks lost by 20 in the opening round. Only seven Jayhawks play at least seven minutes per game. Monitor Kansas' health carefully.
54) Ten Samford players play at least 12 MPG, and eight of the top 12 rotation guys shot at least 38% on 3s. Bucky McMillan's Bulldogs play Bucky Ball, full-court pressing and pushing the tempo, gambling for turnovers, ranking top 10 in the nation in pace, 3-point percentage and turnovers forced. The Southern got a win last season with 13-seed Furman. Could Samford be America's next Southern darling?
55) Dana Altman's Oregon Ducks are 7-0 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, despite an average seed of 7.1. Altman is 15-6-1 ATS all-time in the tournament, including 9-3 ATS as a seed underdog and 11-2-1 ATS with at least three days to prep.
56) Creighton is 12-17 in the modern tournament, even including last year's Elite Eight run. The Bluejays are 1-8 all-time against top-four seeds and have only one win since 2002 against an opponent above a No. 8 seed. Coach Greg McDermott entered last year's tourney 4-10-1 ATS before going 3-1 and losing to San Diego State by one with a chance to reach the school's first Final Four.
57) Akron is 0-5 in the NCAA Tournament, but nine of the last 14 MAC tourney teams (64%) have either won the game or kept it to single digits. In 26 games as a 12-to-14 seed, the MAC has nine upset wins and eight losses by seven or less, leaving a 65% chance of a close, dangerous game. Zips coach John Groce was responsible for three of those wins with Ohio in the MAC in 2010 and 2014.
58) So far this century, Texas is 5-11 when the Longhorns are not a top-four seed. Rodney Terry took the Horns to the Elite Eight last March as an interim coach before taking the full-time job.
59) Tennessee has been a top-four seed eight times and has been upset every time, including upset losses to No. 7, 8, 9, 11, 11 and 12 seeds. The Volunteers have just four Sweet 16s and no Elite Eights as a top-four seed, and they still have never made the Final Four.
60) Volunteers coach Rick Barnes is now 9-21 ATS lifetime in the NCAA Tournament. That includes 8-17 ATS as a seed favorite and 1-7 ATS as a seed favorite with just one day to prep. Barnes has failed to cover in 15 of his last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
Final Four
61) Many smart people will tell you this week that every champion since 2002 except 2014 UConn has finished top 25 in KenPom in both Adjusted Offense and Defense. And it's true! It's just also not particularly useful unless you have a crystal ball since that includes six tournament wins that boost the numbers.
62) A more useful KenPom metric: Since 2002, 20 of 21 champions started the tournament ranked in the top 21 in Adjusted Offense (all but 2014 UConn) and 20 of 21 champs ranked in the top 37 in Adjusted Defense pre-tourney (all but 2021 Baylor).
63) In other words, 19 of the last 21 champs — over 90%! — started both top 21 in offense and top 37 in defense at KenPom. This year that leaves eight teams: UConn, Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Marquette, Creighton, Duke and Auburn. North Carolina and Tennessee just miss the offense cutoff.
64) Six top-four seeds badly miss the KenPom pre-tourney metrics cut: Iowa State and Kansas on offense; Kentucky, Baylor, Illinois and Alabama on defense.
65) No team in history has won a national title after losing the first game in its conference tournament. That's a red flag for six top-four seeds: Tennessee, Kentucky, Creighton, Duke, Kansas and Alabama.
66) Only two champs over the past two decades did not wear blue on their uniforms: 2021 Baylor and 2013 Louisville. Houston, Purdue, Tennessee and Iowa State — you've been warned.
67) Just four teams fit the KenPom pre-tourney criteria, won at least one conference tournament game and wear blue on their uniforms: UConn, Arizona, Marquette and Auburn.
68) Good luck!
