Thursday NCAA Tournament Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 p.m. | |
| 12:15 p.m. | |
  | 12:40 p.m. | |
  | 1:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The best week of the year is here as the NCAA Tournament tips off its first round on Thursday.
We have you covered throughout the day — and weekend — but first, we have NCAA Tournament best bets and odds, including four picks for Thursday's early NCAAB games on March 21.
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
Under 130.5
By John Feltman
There's no better way to tip off the NCAA Tournament than by taking an under in the first matchup. Both the Spartans and Bulldogs have proven throughout the season that they’re physical basketball teams that can command the pace of a game.
Both of these teams should have some jitters early on, and I expect a feeling out process for the majority of the first half. The Bulldogs move methodically on offense, and the Spartans love to create half-court rock fights when possible.
They both rank outside the top 200 in pace and top-20 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs are sixth in the nation in opposing 3-point percentage, so I don’t expect Sparty to get many clean looks from deep.
I don’t expect a shootout, as both defenses are more than capable of dominating for an entire game. The Bulldogs enter the contest with below-average offensive numbers, which gives me even more of a reason to take the under.
The total continues to take money, but I don’t think the public fully understands the makeup of both of these teams.
I’ll gladly watch a brick house get built during the first two hours of the Big Dance.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 129)
Under 130.5
By D.J. James
The Spartans are a defensive-minded team, much like the Bulldogs. The Spartans rank top-10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, while the Bulldogs rank in the top 20.
The Spartans also like to slow the ball down. They occupy nearly 17.7 seconds per possession offensively and over 18 seconds per possession on defense. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs take 18 seconds per possession on offense.
Mississippi State likes to shoot 3s, but the Bulldogs are hitting less than 33% of them. On the other side of the court, the Spartans shoot over 35% from deep, but they don’t shoot 3s often.
In fact, they tend to shoot a ton of mid-range jumpers. The Bulldogs are relatively strong defending the mid-range, so they can take away Michigan State’s default shot.
One issue with this game for the Bulldogs could be turnovers. Mississippi State coughs the ball up often, and Michigan State doesn't. That said, the Spartans force turnovers, but they’re not very efficient in transition.
Mississippi State can get to the foul line, and both of these teams foul often defensively. However, the Spartans don’t spend much time at the charity stripe, so this shouldn’t be an issue.
All of these variables should lead to an under, despite the juice on the over. Neither of these teams are efficient on offense, and this game could turn into a true battle early on Thursday.
Take this under to 129.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 129)
Duquesne vs. BYU
By Brett Pund
This matchup all comes down to the 3-point line. BYU loves to bomb away from outside the arc, but I think Duquesne can do enough to keep this one close.
According to Haslametrics, only North Florida has attempted more 3-pointers per 100 possessions than the Cougars. BYU is also second in the country in the percentage of points that come from 3-pointers.
Meanwhile, this is one of the Dukes’ strengths defensively. Coming into this game, Duquesne leads the nation in 3-point percentage allowed against average opponents by Haslametrics.
Since February, only Iowa State in the East Region has held foes to a worse 3-point shooting than the Dukes. This is also the same team that ranked in the top 15 among tournament teams in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over this same stretch.
If Duquesne can force misses, the next key is securing the rebound, which is a spot I do worry about.
However, BYU won’t have its normal allotment of big men to throw at the Dukes. Aly Khalifa has been battling an injury and was limited in the Big 12 tournament, and Atiki Ally Atiki was unable to practice on Wednesday due to injury.
This would just leave Noah Waterman as the lone center for the Cougars.
I like the fact that Duquesne has senior guards and a veteran coach who’s coaching his last game. The storyline is there, and if the Dukes’ defense can limit the damage from beyond the arc, I just feel like this is too many points.
Pick: Duquesne +9.5 (Play to +8)
Akron vs. Creighton
By Matt Gannon
Don't look now, but I’m putting Creighton on the hot seat early. To most, the Jays are a Final Four caliber team. While I don’t disagree with that statement, I will always fade their volatility in a single-game setting.
The Bluejays are one of the highest volume shooting teams in the entire nation. While this gives them an extremely high ceiling, this also lowers their floor tremendously on an off night.
Akron thrives off of its defense, but it can heat up if needed. The Zips know they’re not going to keep up with Creighton in a track meet, so I expect them to really slow down the tempo on the offensive end.
The key for Akron in this game will be to work the ball around the perimeter and score late in the shot clock. If Akron can do this, it’ll limit Creighton's ability to score in transition, which is one of the Bluejays’ biggest strengths.
This is March and crazier things have happened than a solid 14-seed taking down a volatile 3-seed. While I don’t want to call the upset, I do believe Akron can advance here.
Let's take a bit of a step back and look toward the points rather than the moneyline; +12.5 is a great number, since I think this game will come down to the wire
Enrique Freeman will be a big part of this game on both ends, especially since the Zips don’t have great size. That means Freeman will have to contain Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner.
