Sixteen teams remain in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
The Sweet Sixteen begins on Thursday with four games, and then we have another four on Friday.
Below are my quick thoughts and NCAA Tournament betting analysis for all eight games.
(There's a parlay option below, but that's not my official recommendation with these picks.)
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
I like the Cougars in this game.
I don't think they're getting enough respect in the market, especially against an Alabama team without an elite defense or a good shot-volume profile.
This is a different BYU team than the one we saw earlier in the season, in part due to the emergence of Mawot Mag.
Since February 1st, the well-balanced Cougars are 11-1 (with the lone loss coming to Houston) and rank fourth nationally in BartTorvik's adjusted efficiency metric (trailing only Duke, Houston, and Florida).
The defense still has obvious holes due to a lack of athleticism at certain positions, which they try to cover up with a more passive, packed-in defense (with some zone mixed in).
As a result, they won't turn teams over while encouraging opponents to bomb away (ranking 340th nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed).
That's always troubling in a one-and-done setting, especially against a team like Alabama that will happily oblige.
While the Tide aren't as elite from the outside as last season, they have shot nearly 38% since February 1st.
Even if the Tide are scorching hot from 3 in a neutral court venue, BYU could still keep up with its beautiful offense that can undoubtedly carve up this vulnerable Alabama defense.
BYU can limit Alabama's transition opportunities and scoring chances at the rim in the half-court. If the Cougars can get an off-shooting night from the Tide, they should win outright.
If the Tide are red hot from the perimeter, there are still avenues to a cover.
Ultimately, I think this line is too high, even if the Cougars won't benefit from any elevation and do have to travel out east for this matchup.
Stuckey's Pick: BYU +5.5
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida
I show value on the Terps catching six or more, but I'm worried about how Maryland responds on the court to all the off-the-court drama with head coach Kevin Willard.
While I think the market has fallen in love with the Gators a bit too much of late, Maryland does profile as a much better matchup than UConn since the Huskies slow the game down, excel on the offensive glass, and run a lot of complex off-ball stuff that gave Florida's defense trouble.
Todd Golden's bunch will more or less be allowed to play their preferred style in the Sweet Sixteen, which is a scary thought. And Willard's curveballs (zone, press) won't necessarily be effective against the Gators.
Is Maryland distracted? Can the Terps avoid foul trouble with their lack of depth? Those are my main concerns.
That said, I'm playing Maryland based on numbers — either pre-game or live in what should be a faster-paced game.
Stuckey's Pick: Maryland +6.5 (smaller)
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 1 Duke
Duke has been giving off strong UConn vibes, having covered 10 straight when a healthy Cooper Flagg plays the entire game.
The Blue Devils, who have no discernible weaknesses, are bludgeoning teams at full strength and are even scarier with Tyrese Proctor's recent shooting streak from the outside (19-for-30 from 3 over the past three games).
I am not interested in getting in front of that locomotive. It would be Duke or nothing from a side perspective.
However, after digging deeper into this matchup, I prefer the under since I don't know how Arizona will consistently get buckets.
The Wildcats want to get out in transition and to the rim. However, Duke has an elite transition (second-percentile frequency, 91st efficiency) and rim defense (fourth-percentile frequency, 93rd efficiency, per Synergy). And I don't expect Arizona to dominate Duke on the offensive glass.
Can the Wildcats hit enough jumpers in the half-court to keep up with the Blue Devils? I have serious doubts.
Although, they have indeed shot much better of late. Over their past seven games, they've shot 59-of-136 (43.4%) from deep, which has increased their season-long average from 31.2% to 33.4%.
One of the primary drivers of that turnaround has been the enigmatic Caleb Love, who's drained 21-of-43 (48.8%) triples over that stretch after shooting barely above 30% over his first 29 games this season.
Love was incredible against Oregon, finishing with 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists. Can Arizona continue to get the dynamic Love in the half-court for four more games, starting with an opponent he's undoubtedly familiar with?
I don't think it will be as ugly as the first time these two played in Tucson (69-55 Duke victory) in November when both teams looked drastically different than they do today.
Still, I believe this total is a bit too high with the neutral court setting in Newark potentially helping out the under.
Stuckey's Pick: Under 154.5
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
There is too much injury uncertainty on both sides for me to get involved in this matchup.
Will Chance McMillian play for the Red Raiders? If so, how effective will he be? Texas Tech's offense reaches another gear when he's available, and his outside shooting prowess could be the difference against Arkansas.
If Tech can find its groove from the outside (just 25% in the first two tournament games), I'm not sure Arkansas can keep up with its half-court offense, which can grow stagnant for long stretches.
However, if Tech remains a bit off from deep, that could lead to some easy transition buckets for the Hogs, who are elite in that department.
Arkansas has the athleticism and length to give the Red Raiders issues, especially if this game turns into more of a chaotic brawl.
Still, there are too many moving pieces on the Arkansas side, with Boogie Fland recently returning from injury, in addition to the likely return of Adou Theiro this weekend, making the Razorbacks a tough team to power rate appropriately.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
I show a bit of value on the Spartans, who should dominate the glass on both ends, which I think will ultimately be the difference.
While Sparty ranks in the top 20 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, the Rebels rank 314th and 226th, respectively. That's troubling on a neutral court, especially if Ole Miss can't keep up its torrid shooting from the outside.
In fairness, the Rebels were likely due for some two-way positive 3-point shooting regression.
From February 1st through the end of conference tournaments, Ole Miss only shot 32.4% from 3 while its opponents shot 38.0%.
It cashed in on some of that looming two-way regression against North Carolina and Iowa State, as those two teams combined to shoot 13-of-46 (28.3%) from deep, while the Rebels went a scorching 19-of-39 (48.7%).
However, that pace will be challenging to maintain against a Spartans defense that leads the nation in 3-point defense at 27.8%. And if the shots aren't falling, Michigan's State edge on the glass will likely prove fatal.
Ole Miss has an elite transition defense (19th percentile frequency, 93rd percentile efficiency), paramount against Tom Izzo's bunch. It also forces a high rate of 3-point attempts (317th) and isolation sets (99th percentile frequency), which is how you want to force Michigan State to beat you in the half-court.
On the flip side, the aggressive Ole Miss defense fouls frequently (317th nationally in free-throw attempt rate allowed), which doesn't bode well against the Spartans, who get to the charity stripe at a top-50 rate and cash in on those attempts at a top-25 clip.
While I do show value on the short favorite here, Michigan State has fallen behind due to slow starts countless times this year before eventually wearing teams down with its seemingly unlimited depth in the second half, where Coach Izzo also starts to figure out which buttons to press based on the matchup.
Therefore, I will get a bit greedy here and wait to see if I can get a better price on Sparty live or for the second half if trailing at halftime.
Stuckey's Pick: Target Michigan State live
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season with the return of Lamont Butler, providing a significant boost on both ends of the floor.
Additionally, due to some of the injuries they dealt with during the season, they built much more reliable depth that has paid dividends in March.
While Kentucky has a tremendous offense, the defense still has holes, and the shot volume profile is worrisome.
The Cats can still overcome those deficiencies by winning the 3-point math game.
That's precisely what happened during Kentucky's sweep of Tennessee in the regular season. The Cats dared the Vols to make an outside shot, and they couldn't. In those two losses, the Vols shot just 14-for-63 (22.2%) from 3, while the Cats shot 24-for-48 (50%).
That's an almost impossible deficit to overcome, especially given that Kentucky can adequately limit Tennessee's prowess on the offensive glass.
Can the Vols finally make some outside shots against Kentucky, this time in a half-cut off football stadium? Can Kentucky stay hot from the outside?
The Cats will have a shot if they win the 3-point battle again. If not, Tennessee's superior half-court defense will likely be the difference.
Ultimately, I think this number is pretty fair, but my gut says Tennessee doesn't have a third straight off-shooting day at the office against the Cats, which would likely lead to a Vols cover.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn
I'm close to the market here, so I don't think I'll have anything pre-game.
Auburn has looked a bit lackadaisical over the past few weeks. Were the Tigers coasting? Or are there other legitimate underlying issues?
I don't know the answer to that question, but they did seem to finally lock in (especially on the defensive end of the floor) during the second half of their second-round victory over Creighton.
If Bruce Pearl's bunch comes out focused from the opening tip, Michigan could be in trouble here since Auburn is uniquely qualified to defend 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin with Dylan Cardwell and Johni Broome.
And if we assume the bigs wash each other out, Auburn has a distinct advantage on the perimeter unless Michigan finds a way to get significant boosts from the likes of Roddy Gayle and LJ Cason for a second straight game.
Maybe this is the game Michigan finally hits some outside shots, which would be a welcome sight for Wolverine fans.
Between February 1st and the start of the tournament, Michigan shot just 27.5% from 3 after shooting 37% over its first 20 games. Through two games in the tournament, that percentage has been even worse at 25%.
The Wolverines could certainly use the help from the perimeter to help them hang around and potentially make this game close late, where they have thrived all season.
Stuckey's Pick: Target Auburn live (if Michigan leads early)
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston
Purdue does have a few intangibles that are working in its favor.
The Boilermakers have big-game experience, having played in the national championship last season. They will also benefit from playing in Indianapolis, which Houston fans can't be happy about.
However, I fear Purdue's defense could fall apart in this matchup.
Painter has made some nice adjustments lately to cover Purdue's severe lack of rim protection by primarily packing everything in and daring teams to beat them over the top.
While that certainly worked against a pair of mid-majors (McNeese and High Point) over the first weekend, that's a dangerous game against Houston. While the Cougars don't love shooting the three ball at a high rate, they can get white hot when given the opportunity, as evidenced by the nation's best 3-point shooting amrk (39.8%).
If the outside shots fall early, the Purdue defense could crumble completely.
On the other side of the ball, Houston will swarm both Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn with its elite pick-and-roll defense (97th percentile efficiency, per Synergy), which will likely force Purdue's role players to step up in the half-court, where they will be at a severe disadvantage from a physicality standpoint.
While I like some matchups for Houston on both ends, I'm not running to the window to back the Cougars laying 8.5 in a game that profiles as a complete half-court grinder with limited possessions, especially against an experienced Purdue team playing in its backyard.
Verdict: Pass (lean Houston)
