A 12-seed over a 5-seed — everyone's favorite bracket upset spot. Even your grandma in your family bracket league knows she has to take at least one 12-seed given how frequently they win (all but three years since 2005).
So which 12-seed — Liberty, New Mexico State, Oregon or Murray State — is most likely this season to make it to the weekend?
Using our proprietary power ratings and March Madness simulations, let's rank each upset spot, starting with the least-likely upset and finishing with the most likely.
2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks: 12-5 Upsets
4. Liberty (#12) vs. Mississippi State (#5)
- Proj Spread: Mississippi State -9
- Proj Total: 136.5
- Proj Score: Mississippi State 73 | Liberty 64
- Win Probability: Mississippi State 82.8% | Liberty 17.2%
Our power ratings give Liberty, an overseeded 12-seed, the worst chance of scoring a first-round upset. The Flames shoot the ball well, ranking seventh in the nation in both 2-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage, but that's about where the positives end.
Overall, they're outside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have a few big weaknesses. Notably, they're poor on the glass and never really get to the free throw line. They're an incredibly slow-paced team that will have to rely solely on a hot shooting day to hang.
And that'll be tough against a Mississippi State team that ranks within the top 15 nationally in offense. The Bulldogs are also a good shooting team and hit the offensive glass very well. They're average defensively, but they do get a lot of steals and blocks and should beat Liberty with athleticism.
3. New Mexico State (#12) vs. Auburn (#5)
- Proj Spread: Auburn -8.5
- Proj Total: 142
- Proj Score: Auburn 75.5 | New Mexico State 67
- Win Probability: Auburn 81.7% | New Mexico State 18.3%
The Aggies have an impressive 30-4 overall record this year, although they haven't really played any teams in the same tier as Auburn. Their two best opponents were Saint Mary's (31st in KenPom rankings) and Kansas (20th), and they of course lost both, although they kept it within three against the Jayhawks.
New Mexico State is your typical slow-paced, inside-out mid-major. The Aggies rank eighth and fourth in the nation on the offensive and defensive glass, respectively. They're ninth in 2-point field goal percentage and do a great job protecting the ball, likely because they operate mostly in the halfcourt.
Thus we have distinct clash of styles here. The Tigers are first in the nation in turning opponents over and love to play fast and get up 3-pointers.
If the Aggies want to hang around with a fast Auburn team, they'll have to dictate the style of this game and keep it slow.
2. Oregon (#12) vs. Wisconsin (#5)
- Proj Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
- Proj Total: 121.5
- Proj Score: Wisconsin 63.5 | Oregon 58
- Win Probability: Wisconsin 70% | Oregon 30%
Oregon lost its best player in future pro center Bol Bol back in December, but the Ducks have really rallied lately, winning their last eight games of the season and taking home the Pac-12 title.
Their path to a victory over a tough Wisconsin team is on the defensive end, where the Ducks sit 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They're 10th in opponent 3-point percentage and 12th and 20th in block and steal rate, respectively. They don't play fast, but increasing the variance by getting out in transition with blocks and steals is a recipe for an upset.
They will have their hands full with the Badgers, who have an even better defense, ranking third in the nation. Their offense runs through senior standout Ethan Happ, who should be able to dominate Oregon inside.
Still, the incredible recent play of the Ducks certainly makes them a live dog.
1. Murray State (#12) vs. Marquette (#5)
- Proj Spread: Marquette -5
- Proj Total: 144.5
- Proj Score: Marquette 75 | Murray State 70
- Win Probability: Marquette 66.1% | Murray State 33.9%
Murray State is a unique double-digit seed, in that the Racers will likely have the best player on the floor in nearly every game they play in the tournament. Looking back at some of the bigger surprises in the Big Dance historically, you'll see now-infamous underdogs with names like Stephen Curry (Davidson), C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Gordon Hayward (Butler) on the rosters.
Elite NBA talents can take over games when they matter, and Murray State guard Ja Morant certainly qualifies. He's projected to go in the top three in this year's NBA draft and has catapulted the Racers to national fame.
Oh yeah, and my colleague Ryan Collinsworth ran a lot of data showing that Murray State is incredibly undervalued here. If you want to take a 12-seed to make it to the second round and beyond, Murray State is your best bet.
