The NCAA Tournament is about Cinderellas.
March Madness is only “Mad” because of the mid-major squads that pick off the high-majors en route to an unexpected second-weekend trip. America loves this event for Oakland’s Jack Gohlke, Saint Peter’s Doug Edert, Oral Roberts’ Max Abmas, et cetera.
Our Big Bets on Campus experts are looking at two potential Big Dance Cinderellas for 2025, including the High Point Panthers and the UC San Diego Tritons in the first round.
Read on for our NCAA Tournament bracket predictions and best first-round upset picks for this weekend.
NCAA Tournament Best First-Round Upset Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12:40 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Waddell's Favorite First-Round Upset: High Point Over Purdue
By Greg Waddell
I think High Point is going to beat Purdue.
The Panthers are the Cinderella I had targeted before the bracket dropped. I think they have everything needed to make a deep run in the Big Dance.
For starters, they have a bunch of high-major talent. Kimani Hamilton played at Mississippi State. D’Maurian Williams played at Texas Tech. Bobby Pettiford was a five-star recruit who started his career in Kansas, and he’s the sixth man for these Panthers.
High Point has dudes. The Panthers don’t have the look or the feel of a mid-major squad.
Meanwhile, I don’t always feel the same way about Purdue. Aside from Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, there are some mid-major caliber players on the roster. High Point can hang from an athletic perspective.
From a schematic perspective, High Point can really exploit Purdue’s horrific interior defense. The Boilermakers have zero rim protection. They adjusted toward the end of January by ramping up the perimeter pressure, but that really tired out Smith, who has been struggling the past few weeks.
High Point ranks 15th nationally in 2-point shooting (57%, per KenPom). The Panthers should feast on the interior and at the rim.
I also think they can hold up on the other end of the court.
That’s easier said than done. Kaufman-Renn can drop 30 on anyone at this point. But the Panthers have a legitimate seven-foot rim protector in Boto Boto, and Kaufman-Renn struggled against Michigan’s size in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Boilermakers are running on fumes. I’ve heard rumors that Smith is looking to hit the transfer portal after the year. The vibes are weird in West Lafayette, and I think High Point is the perfect team to take advantage.
Pick: High Point ML (+320)
Calabrese's Favorite First-Round Upset: UC San Diego Over Michigan
I’ll take the Tritons over the Wolverines.
Congrats on your Big Ten Conference Tournament Championship, Michigan! Two of the past three winners lost in the Round of 64 — Iowa in 2022 and Purdue in 2023. The tournament hasn’t exactly been a springboard to March Madness success.
Relevant to this specific matchup, Michigan is so sloppy with the basketball (20% turnover rate, 328th nationally, per KenPom), which plays right into UC San Diego’s hands (23% turnover rate forced, second nationally, per KenPom).
Yes, the Tritons will be undersized, and there will be issues defending the Wolverines’ monstrous Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin pick-and-roll sets.
But if Michigan turns the ball over 15 or 20 times, the Tritons have a real opportunity to jump on the Wolverines.
UC San Diego won over 30 games and looked dominant for most of the year. The only real trouble the Tritons ran into this year was against UC Irvine and big man Bent Leuchten — a 7-foot-1 monstrous interior presence who altered shots and was difficult to deal with on the boards.
But the Tritons navigated the Anteaters, winning the final two head-to-head matchups by double digits, including in the Big West Tournament Championship game last Saturday.
I think that’s a good warm-up for what UC San Diego will see in the Round of 64, and I think the Tritons can handle the Big Ten Tournament Champs.
Pick: UC San Diego ML (+130)
Stuckey's Favorite First-Round Upset: UC San Diego Over Michigan
By Stuckey
I agree with Calabrese. The Tritons are my favorite first-round upset, too.
Can UC San Diego lose this game? Absolutely.
However, I power rate these teams almost even and consider this a coin-flip game, and Michigan is due for some negative close-game variance after winning seven straight one-possession games.
Michigan’s size could be an issue at the rim against UC San Diego, but the turnovers will be a massive issue for the Wolverines.
Additionally, I think the Tritons will have multiple avenues to offense, and this is my favorite potential upset of the first round.
Pick: UC San Diego ML (+130)
