Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
When filling out your bracket, it’s all about hitting the right March Madness upsets — not just picking random Cinderellas and hoping the glass slipper fits.
That’s where a data-driven approach comes in, finding the most likely upsets along with several bracket picks to get away from the crowd. The key is finding where the public is too high or too low on a team compared to actual odds of advancing.
How to Find the Best March Madness Upsets
Rather than just looking for the most likely upsets, let’s take it a step further — where's the public underestimating teams with real chances to win?
To find these hidden value picks, we need to know who the public is picking and at what rate. That’s where the PoolGenius Bracket Picks Tool comes in.
Using Public Pick Data For Better Bracket Picks
PoolGenius analyzes public pick data from several bracket platforms and compares it to actual advancement odds via sportsbooks and predictive models.
You can take it a step further by building a fully optimized bracket — just enter your pool size and scoring, and PoolGenius will build the best bracket to maximize the expected value for that specific pool.
| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
Note: Public pick percentages will change as more brackets get filled out. That’s why checking PoolGenius’ public pick data closer to Thursday is key — it keeps you updated with the latest insights to make the smartest picks.
Best First-Round Upsets in March Madness 2025
The odds to win come from PoolGenius, which combines ratings, analytics and betting market data. These probabilities may differ from what you’ll find on other platforms.
When it comes to upsets, we’re referring to bracket picks — especially for pools that award seed difference points or upset bonuses, where picking the right lower-seeded teams can give you a big edge.
No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis
- Odds to win: 75%
- Public pick rate: 33%
No. 12 Colorado State is actually favored in this matchup, yet the public heavily backs Memphis, making CSU a rare first-round value favorite — highly likely to win but largely overlooked.
Our model gives them Rams a 75% chance to win, which may seem high, but sportsbooks also have them favored at 60-65%.
This upset is a smart play in both standard pools and upset-bonus pools, where finding under-picked yet strong teams can give you a nice edge.
No. 11 North Carolina or San Diego State over No. 6 Ole Miss
- Odds to win: 55%
- Public pick rate: 31%
Whoever wins the First Four matchup between North Carolina and San Diego State will be in a strong position to upset Mississippi.
We all know that the at-large play-in teams win first-round games more often than the typical 11- and 12-seeds. Some even make deep runs, like VCU in 2011 or UCLA in 2021.
While we’re not predicting that kind of magic here, only 31% of the public is picking the winner of this game to reach the Round of 32, making this a strong value play in all pools.
| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
No. 12 UC-San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
- Odds to win: 42%
- Public pick rate: 19%
UC San Diego is one of the most overlooked teams in this year’s bracket. Despite having a 42% chance to win, only 19% of the public is picking the Tritons.
Michigan will be on short rest after the Big Ten title game, and UCSD’s defense is built to force mistakes.
This high-value upset pick may be flying under the radar due to Michigan’s Big Ten Tournament run, but you shouldn’t overlook UC San Diego, which enters the tournament on a 15-game win streak.
No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU
- Odds to win: 42%
- Public pick rate: 31%
BYU is an elite shooting team, but its defense is suspect, Meanwhile, VCU ranks first nationally in opponent effective field-goal percentage.
The Cougars will be one of the best shooting teams the Rams have faced, but if VCU can disrupt their shooters the way it has all season, this could be a prime upset spot.
Sportsbooks have VCU as a small three-point underdog, making this a strong pick in upset bonus or large pools.
No. 11 Xavier or Texas over No. 6 Illinois
- Odds to win: 39%
- Public pick rate: 24%
Illinois has been inconsistent, mixing strong performances with frustrating losses. Meanwhile, the Xavier/Texas winner is peaking at the right time:
- Texas closed strong, winning three games against NCAA Tournament teams to secure its spot.
- Xavier won seven straight — including a dominant victory over Creighton — before falling in the Big East Tournament.
With just 24% of the public on this upset, it’s a sneaky, high-value pick — especially in large pools or ones with upset bonuses.
Find Hidden Upsets, Make Smarter Bracket Picks
Want to know which teams are flying under the radar for the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or even the championship?
PoolGenius helps you spot undervalued upsets, avoid over-picked teams and make smarter bracket picks using public pick data and real advancement odds.
This data could be the difference between making the same picks as everyone else and finding those key edges to climb your pool standings.
And the results speak for themselves — since 2017, PoolGenius users have won over $2.5 million, with 61% winning a pool prize last year.
| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
