The best thing about the NCAA Tournament is the Cinderellas, the lower-seeded squads that come out of nowhere, throw on a slipper and make a deep run during the biggest portion of the season.
Every year there's at least one team that makes a dramatic run, surprising the general public with a Sweet 16 (or deeper) appearance.
Our staff is targeting three NCAA Tournament Cinderellas that you should target in your bracket leagues, including actionable picks for your betting cards.
UC San Diego Tritons
+400 to Reach Sweet 16
By: Mike Calabrese
According to the advanced analytics community, we have the best crop of No. 1 seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament.
If Auburn, Duke, Florida or Houston cut down the nets in San Antonio, they’ll likely be the highest-rated champion, per KenPom, in the past 25 years.
One or two dominant teams in a field isn’t rare, but for all four top seeds to be playing at a historical level simultaneously indicates that we’re in unchartered waters.
While the title chase could be one for the record books, let’s not lose sight of what truly makes March Madness special: the Cinderellas. With very few “bid stealers,” this year’s class of potential bracket busters is littered with excellent low- and mid-major threats.
11 teams seeded between the 12 and 16 lines were top seeds in their respective conference tournament as either outright or co-champions during the regular season.
That means that while they didn’t just get hot at the right time, these teams have been dominating for months. That breeds confidence and should put top teams on upset alert.
UC San Diego is a mystery to the average college basketball fan. This is the program’s fifth season at the Division I level and its first with eligibility to compete in the Big Dance. Only two other schools have even made the NCAA Tournament in their first eligible season.
How did UCSD celebrate that opportunity? By winning 30 games.
Keep in mind, the Tritons didn’t even have scholarship players on their roster five years ago, and now they enter the Big Dance rated higher than a program like Texas, whose operating budget is 50 times larger than UCSD’s.
The Tritons’ starting lineup looks like it was cobbled together from the Island of Misfit Toys. Four of the five starters transferred in from D-II schools, including Azusa Pacific, Hawai’i Hilo and Southern Nazarene.
While the transfer portal promises riches to some, UCSD simply offers its players a chance to compete at the highest level.
In any Cinderella, I’m looking for an element of their game that makes them special. In the case of UCSD, it’s turnover margin. It swarms opponents, forcing turnovers on 20.5% of possessions (second), and it never gives the ball away when it has it (nine TO per game, fourth).
The Tritons’ +7.2 turnover margin is not only the best in the country, but it’s also the second-best in the past eight seasons. The turnover margin gives them a shot-volume edge, which they maximize further by targeting 3-point attempts and shots near the rim.
Among teams in the field, UCSD’s “Rim & 3” rate is the fifth-highest (91%). The result is the Tritons often going on big runs of 10-0 or more — also known as a kill-shot run. Only Duke and McNeese have better kill-shot margins in the field.
And then there’s Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the Tritons’ do-it-all New Zealander. At 6-foot-6, he’s a disruptive defender, can rebound and gets to the rim relentlessly.
He’s the only small forward in the field to average over 10 points per game at the rim (11.5 PPG), and his 8.6 foul shot attempts per game ranks second in the country.
While his teammates chuck away from 3, he’s doing the dirty work.
In the first round, UCSD draws Michigan, a team with severe turnover issues (14.1 TO, 340th).
Michigan is also fresh off a Big Ten Tournament title, which means this game with UCSD will be its fourth in less than a week. Toss in the altitude in Denver, and I like UCSD to advance as a short underdog.
After that, it could be Texas A&M, a power conference team that can’t shoot a lick (317th 3P%) or a fellow Cinderella in Yale.
With this potential path, I love the Tritons’ chances of introducing themselves to the nation with a run to the Sweet 16.
Drake Bulldogs
+700 to Reach Sweet 16
The Bulldogs will be making their third consecutive March Madness appearance.
Drake posted a record of 30-3 this season, the best in program history.
The Bulldogs match up exceptionally well with their first-round opponent, Missouri.
Drake ranks 12th in the nation in defensive rebounds compared to the Tigers, who rank 336th.
Ben McCollum's team also leads the nation in points allowed per game and defensive rebounds.
The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in the nation, which will cause teams issues in the tournament.
Drake can slow a game down and dominate the glass.
Junior Bennett Stirtz leads the team with 19.1 points per game. The Liberty, Missouri, native has the ability to dominate a game and make plays late.
Drake is also one of the best teams in the nation in terms of assist-to-turnover ratio (fourth). The Bulldog's ability to win the turnover battle every game will make them a live “dog.”
Drake has a favorable path to the Sweet 16 and has value as a ‘dog throughout the tournament.
Yale Bulldogs
+880 to Reach Sweet 16
By: Shane McNichol
For a league that doesn’t give athletic scholarships, isn’t known for athletics and doesn’t allow graduate students to play sports, the Ivy League punches well above its weight class every March.
