NCAA Tournament Day 1 Live: Betting Trends, Results, Notes, Data & More

NCAA Tournament Day 1 Live: Betting Trends, Results, Notes, Data & More article feature image

Welcome to March Madness and the 2025 NCAA Tournament live tracker! This file will be continuously updated through day one (Thursday) of the tournament for upsets, picks, trends, data, betting moments and much more.

Below is a navigation that will take you to each game, including stats, trends, notes and more.


NCAA Tournament: Day 1 (Thursday)

Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.

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What's Happening Now!

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6:00 PM ET

Change Up

Overs went 4-0 in the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As of now, unders are 5-3 in the Round of 64.

The biggest advantage early in March Madness — first half overs are 9-3 through the first 12 games, including the First Four.



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(15) Wofford vs. (2) Tennessee | Thursday, March 20
6:50PM ET | TNT
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Live Action:

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Game Note:

No team had a wider disparity between ATS marks at home and away from the friendly confines. In their 11 lined home games, they went 3-8 ATS, but they ended the season on a 6-game ATS losing streak. Away from home, Wofford is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games entering the dance. Wofford has also been a great second half team lately, winning and covering five straight 2nd halves entering the tournament.

Rick Barnes is 22-36 (38%) against the spread in the NCAA Tournament in his coaching career with Providence, Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. That includes a record of 5-17 ATS in the tournament since 2010. Of the 299 coaches in that span, Barnes is the least profitable on a $100 wager at -$1,233. Barnes hasn’t finished a single NCAA Tournament above .500 ATS since 2009 — 11 straight tournaments .500 ATS or worse.

The good thing for the Vols' Round of 64 matchup with Wofford is 3 of those five ATS wins for Barnes were as double-digit favorites. He is 2-15 ATS in that span as an underdog or favorite of under 10 points. Between Tennessee, Texas and Clemson, Rick Barnes knows his orange — but in his 28 tournament appearances, he’s lost in the first weekend in 19 of them, losing in the Sweet 16 in five more, with Barnes going to one Final Four, with Texas in 2003.


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(10) Arkansas vs. (7) Kansas | Thursday, March 20
7:15PM ET | TBS
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Live Action:

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Game Note:

John Calipari is 20-3 straight up in Round of 64, but he’s just 1-2 SU in the round over the last three years. Overall, Calipari is 1-4 ATS in his last five NCAA Tournament games overall, his worst stretch since 2015-17.

In his coaching career, Calipari has been listed as an underdog in the tournament ten times and he is 6-3-1 ATS, going 4-0-1 ATS while with Kentucky. Calipari hasn't been an underdog in either the Round of 64 or 32 since 2014 and this will be his first game as an underdog in the Round of 64 after 23 straight as a favorite.

Over the last six NCAA Tournaments, Bill Self is 7-12 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $551, making him the least profitable coach in the tourney in that span of 186 coaches. Kansas barely got by Samford in the Round of 64 last year, but Self has been good ATS in the round overall, going 7-2 ATS since 2015.

Kansas and Bill Self have won 12 consecutive games SU as a favorite in the tourney. The last loss came in 2017 against Oregon in the Elite 8 (they are 18-2 SU as a favorite in NCAAT since 2016).

Under Bill Self, Kansas has never been higher than a four seed in the NCAA Tournament. You have to go all the way back to 2000 for the last time they entered a tournament with a seed higher than 4th (8th that year).

Kansas lost to Arizona in the Big 12 conference tournament — dating back to 2017, KU is 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAAT games as an at-large bid.



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(13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M | Thursday, March 20
7:25PM ET | TBS
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Live Action:

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Game Note:

The Yale-Texas A&M over/under has dropped two full 2.5 points since it opened to 139.5


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(11) Drake vs. (6) Missouri | Thursday, March 20
7:35PM ET | TruTV
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Live Action:

Coming Soon!


Game Note:

Drake has only played five NCAA Tournament games in the seeding era (since 1979) and they are 0-5 ATS in those games, four of which coming in the Round if 64.

Drake has played nine games this season with a total of 135 pts or more, and the under is 7-2 in those games, going under the total by a whopping 9.8 PPG. Drake has played seven neutral site games this season and they have been very consistent in those matchups. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, going 6-1 ATS in the first half and 6-1 ATS in the second half


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Games Finished

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(9) Georgia vs. (8) Gonzaga | Thursday, March 20
4:35PM ET | TBS
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Final Score:

Gonzaga (-7.5): 89
Georgia: 68
Total 153.5: Over (157)


Nothing matches Gonzaga's consistency.

Mark Few has made the Round of 32 in 65 consecutive tournaments. The automatic bid is good for the Zags. Both title game appearances came as a WCC tournament winner and they are 36-18 SU in the tournament and 17-2 SU in the Round of 64 as an automatic qualifier. The issue has been covering before today, where they are now 21-32-1 ATS under Few as an auto and 8-11 ATS in the Round of 64.


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(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU | Thursday, March 20
4:05PM ET | TNT
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Final Score:

BYU (-2.5): 80
VCU: 71
Total 148.5: Over (151)


This was one of the highest rising totals of the round. Opened at 143.5 and closed at 148.5, going over by 2.5 pts at 151 combined pts.

This is BYU's first NCAA Tournament cover since 2012, they had lost five straight ATS in the tournament before today.


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(12) McNeese State vs. (5) Clemson | Thursday, March 20
3:15PM ET | TruTV
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Final Score:

Clemson: 67
McNeese State (+7.5): 69
Total 136.5: Under (136)


Clemson trails 31-13 at the half — the largest halftime deficit for the Tigers since January of 2021. Clemson is 5-3 against 2nd half spread when trailing at the half this year.

The fewest first half points in an NCAA Tournament game in the shot clock era (since 1986) is 10, by Wake Forest in 2001 and Kent State in 2008.


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(16) Alabama State vs. (1) Auburn | Thursday, March 20
2:50PM ET | CBS
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Final Score:

Auburn: 83
Alabama St (+32): 63
Total 148.5: Under (146)


Auburn leads by 10 at the half — they failed to cover the 19.5-point first half spread.

Bruce Pearl has received a top-4 seed five times as a head coach and his teams have never advanced past the Sweet 16, going 2-9 ATS now in those games, failing to cover the spread by 10+ PPG.


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(16) SIU Edwardsville vs. (1) Houston | Thursday, March 20
2:00PM ET | TBS
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Final Score:

Houston (-28.5): 78
SIUE: 40
Total 127.5: Under (118)


For Kelvin Sampson, the issues came later in the tournament. Since 2005, he has been 11-6 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, and 2-6 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. In his coaching career in the NCAA Tournament, Sampson has avoided the big upset, going 12-0 SU as a favorite of 8 pts or more.

Houston is now 5-1 to the under in their last six games played.


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(14) Montana vs. (3) Wisconsin | Thursday, March 20
1:30PM ET | TNT
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Final Score:

Wisconsin (-16.5): 85
Montana: 66
Total 153.5: Under (151)


The first half total barely went over the closing number of 71.5, with Wisconsin up 42-30 (72 1H pts). First half overs are 5-1 to the over in the NCAA Tournament so far.

Under Montana coach Travis DeCuire, they have played 32 lined games vs. power 6 conference teams — ACC, Big 12, Big East, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 — and they are 8-25 ATS, failing to cover the spread by almost six PPG.

Wisconsin ranks No. 2 in history in free-throw percentage for a single season, trailing 2022 Villanova by just .02% (83.0%). Oklahoma could rack up plenty of free points at the line against a UConn defense that ranks 333rd in foul rate.


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(13) High Point vs. (4) Purdue | Thursday, March 20
12:40PM ET | TruTV
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Final Score:

Purdue (-7.5): 75
High Point: 63
Total 153.5: Under (128)


Matt Painter continues to cash tickets early in the NCAA Tournament…


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(9) Creighton vs. (8) Louisville | Thursday, March 20
12:15PM ET | CBS
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Final Score:

Creighton (+3): 89
Louisville: 75
Total 146.5: Over (164)


Creighton won the first half against Louisville by 15 pts, the largest 1H deficit for Louisville since March of last year — the trend ends for the Cardinals:
"No team has been on a better run starting off games than Louisville. Dating back to mid-December, they are 21-2 against the first half spread in their last 23 total games, covering those first halves by over 5 PPG."

Greg McDermott is now 8-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2022 after starting 4-9-1 ATS in the tourney in his coaching career.


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Coming Up Later…

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(10) Utah State vs. (7) UCLA | Thursday, March 20
9:25PM ET | TNT
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Game Note:

Utah State is 2-20 straight up in its last 22 NCAA Tournament games dating back to their 1970 Elite Eight loss. Last year, they got just their second win in that span beating TCU in the Round of 64 before losing to Purdue in the Round of 32.

Articles:

UCLA vs Utah State Spread Prediction | 71% Model Pick for NCAA Tournament Image

Expert Picks:


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(15) Nebraska-Omaha vs. (7) St. John's | Thursday, March 20
9:45PM ET | CBS
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Game Note:

Rick Pitino will enter this year’s tournament with his 6th different school — going from Boston University, to Providence, to Kentucky, then Louisville, then Iona and now St. John’s.

Pitino has only made the tournament in his first season with a school once, in 2020-21 with Iona, a Round of 64 SU loss, but ATS cover. The question is, how should we look at the Red Storm this year? In the Round of 64 and 32, Pitino is 28-5 SU when listed as the favorite, including 16-2 SU in the R64.

Omaha enters the NCAA Tournament 24-9 ATS this season, the best ATS record for any team in the Summit League. Omaha has won and covered 7 straight games entering the big dance and they are 16-5 ATS either on the road or at a neutral site this year.

Articles:

Expert Picks:


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(12) UC San Diego vs. (5) Michigan | Thursday, March 20
10:00PM ET | TBS
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Game Note:

The trendy pick. Seeds 12 or higher in the Round of 64, who are either a favorite or an underdog of 4 pts or less, are 0-5 ATS since 2020 and 4-8 ATS over the last decade.

Articles:

Expert Picks:


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(14) UNC Wilmington vs. (3) Texas Tech | Thursday, March 20
10:10PM ET | TruTV
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Game Note:

The Red Raiders have played five neutral site games this season and have yet to cover the spread, going 0-5 ATS. That 0-5 ATS mark is the worst for any team to make the NCAA Tournament.

UNC Wilmington enters the NCAA Tournament actually losing their last two games against the spread — teams seeded 10th or higher in the dance who are on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are 27-33 ATS since 2005, including 0-7 ATS in the last two years.

Articles:

Expert Picks:

About the Author
Evan is the Director of Research for the Action Network. Born and raised in New York City, he solely roots for teams who cover. His fears: bullpens, quicksand and stoppage time.

Follow Evan Abrams @EvanHAbrams on Twitter/X.

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