This is the most brutal region in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
UConn is the nation’s most dominant team, but the other top seeds all won their conference tournament – Iowa State in the Big 12, Auburn in the SEC and Illinois in the Big Ten.
Even better, the East’s lower seeds have big-time upset potential. I love Drake, Morehead State, Yale and UAB in the first round (sorry, Duquesne, but no).
Odds are to win the East Region, via FanDuel
Favorite of Region: UConn (+110)
The Huskies feel inevitable. They’re too dominant on both sides of the ball – they're only team nationally that ranks in the top 10 nationally in 2-point shooting (59%) and defense (45%).
They have guard play (Tristen Newton), shooting (Cam Spencer) and a dominant post presence (Donovan Clingan).
Perhaps most importantly, they have the nation’s most elaborate and complex pattern motion offense designed by college basketball’s best offensive mind, Dan Hurley.
The Huskies’ pattern motion offense is so variable and complex that it’s near impossible to prep for on short turnarounds, giving them an immense advantage in a tournament setting.
Ultimate Winner of Region: UConn (+110)
The Huskies getting put in the same region as Iowa State, Illinois, Auburn and BYU is a cruel and unusual punishment for the top overall seed.
That said, I don’t love how any of those teams match up with UConn.
Iowa State’s (+450) ball-screen blitz defense is too vulnerable against UConn’s elite player and ball movement.
Illinois’ (+800) defense has regressed significantly, and its over-reliance on transition offense won’t match up with the Huskies’ elite transition denial.
BYU (+1500) doesn’t have the athleticism or lateral versatility to match up defensively with UConn’s talent.
Auburn (+500) has the best shot at knocking off the Huskies, but the Tigers have brutal matchups with Yale – Ivy League teams always punch up – and potentially San Diego State – the physicality of that game would be exhausting.
It’ll be tough to stay with UConn for 40 minutes after those two battles.
Again, UConn is inevitable.
Potential Bracket-Busting Team: Morehead State (+25000)
The Eagles have everything you want in a potential Cinderella squad.
They have an elite guard in Drew Thelwell, who boasts a 30% assist rate.
They have matchup problem makers on the wing in Riley Minix and Jordan Lathon, who combine to score 36 points per game.
They have legit size with 7-foot Dieonte Miles anchoring the paint.
They can shoot the rock (35% from 3), play defense (top-10 nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed), and they slow the game to a halt with elite transition denial (top-30 in transition points per game allowed).
That last point will play great against Illinois.
And the scoring wings can create against BYU or Duquesne (+15000).
A potential Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa State — or an Elite Eight matchup with UConn — creates bigger problems, but the Eagles shouldn't be taken lightly.
Best Matchup of First Round: Washington State vs. Drake
Wazzu had a killer year. Kyle Smith coached circles around the Pac-12, and Myles Rice was arguably the conference’s best point guard, averaging 15/4. Also, Isaac Jones and Jaylen Wells are nightmares on the wing.
But Drake is a legit second-week tournament team. After starting the year slow, the Bulldogs circled the wagon en route to a Missouri Valley tournament title with an upset win over Indiana State.
Tucker DeVries is among the most talented pure scorers in the college game. He was also a savvy ball-screen initiator, constantly hitting monster big man Darnell Brodie down low.
Darian DeVries has been here before, as this will be his third NCAA tournament in the past four years. He's yet to win a first-round matchup, though.
Wazzu plays a lot of zone defense, which could mess with Drake’s mediocre zone offense, specifically on cutting sets. Conversely, the Cougars might have difficulty establishing its post-up-and-offensive-rebounding offense against the 6-foot-10, 275-pound Brodie.
Remember, Drake led the MVC in paint (28) and second-chance (seven) points per game allowed.
This is a fascinating game from an X’s, O’s and narrative perspective. I can't wait to see who comes out on top, but I heavily lean toward Drake, considering momentum, experience and the X-Factor in Tucker.
