The four days between Selection Sunday and the opening tip of the Round of 64 can feel overwhelming.
There are 32 games on Thursday and Friday to explore, yet this time also acts as a great chance to step back and evaluate all 68 teams. Looking back on each of their seasons can shed light on how they might perform the rest of the way.
As I dove into that research, some clear trends emerged, leading to some bets in the futures markets. These four teams felt undervalued at their current offerings and I was sure to add them to my NCAA Tournament futures portfolio.
National Champion: Houston +750
This one qualifies as not overthinking things. Houston has a top-10 offense and top-three defense in the country.
Unlike some of the more solely-focused defensive teams Kelvin Sampson has had in the past, this team has scorers capable of getting a bucket when needed, particularly veteran guard LJ Cryer.
Beyond that, Houston holds a distinction that bodes well for the Cougars' chances of advancing: Houston won the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament crowns.
Years ago, I did a study into which of those mattered more when March came around. The big takeaway: winning both is the true differentiator.
Updated with data through 2024, that is clear:
| Round Eliminated | Total | Percent | Reach % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost in First Round | 4 | 8.51% | 100% |
| Round of 32 | 6 | 12.77% | 91.49% |
| Sweet 16 | 11 | 23.40% | 78.72% |
| Elite Eight | 9 | 19.15% | 55.32% |
| Final Four | 7 | 14.89% | 36.17% |
| National Runner Up | 4 | 8.51% | 21.28% |
| National Champs | 6 | 12.77% | 12.77% |
Average NCAA Tournament Wins 2.96
Teams to win both conference titles in a year fare remarkably well in the Big Dance, with nearly 80% reaching the second weekend, more than a third playing in the Final Four and just shy of 13% cutting down the nets in early April.
This season, three teams qualify: Houston, St. John's and Duke.
I'm more skeptical of the Cooper Flagg injury than most. But meanwhile, Houston lost one game all season in a conference that sent six other schools to the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars have only been beaten in regulation once all season — a November 9 lost to the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Auburn.
If I had to pick any team straight up to win the title, it's Houston.
Give me +750 and I'm running to place my bet.
National Champion: St. John's +3300
The Johnnies popped up above in the Houston write-up, having won the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles.
I have my doubts about the Red Storm, no question. This is a team that shoots poorly from all over the field and relies heavily on the offensive glass to prop up a shaky offense. In March and April, you'd feel a lot better about wagering on a team that can score in a variety of ways.
Despite that, St. John's simply refused to lose this season. The Red Storm found timely baskets when they need them, and more importantly, they can manufacture stops on the defensive end at record rates.
The Johnnies boast the nation's top-ranked defense. Every national champ in the KenPom era (since 1997) has finished the season with a defense ranked 22nd or higher.
Rick Pitino's last championship, in 2013, came with the nation's best defense and a team with shooting deficiencies (200th in 3-point shooting, just 31% in conference play).
This price is a huge value, possibly because the books and bettors don't love St. John's style of play.
I'm ready for a gritty, sloppy March and a Johnnies run into April.
Final Four: Gonzaga +900
There's a few ways to look at the current Gonzaga season.
At face value, it's been a letdown. This team was ranked sixth in the preseason AP Poll and now sits as an eight seed in March. Gonzaga enters the madness with its worst seed and most losses since 2016. For the talent on the roster and the expectations laid out for them, that's bad.
Take a step back and you can excuse some of the issues. Coveted transfer Steele Venters tore his ACL on October 13, changing the direction of the program this season.
Of Gonzaga's eight losses, three came in overtime and all eight came by seven points or fewer.
That's not excusing the losses, but this team's metrics and seed would look markedly different with a win over Kentucky or UConn, or a regular season win against Saint Mary's.
This is a top-10 team in KenPom's predictive metrics, now playing its best ball of the season. A second-round tilt with Houston is daunting (see above!), but a Zags upset in that one creates a very enticing path to the Alamodome, essentially absorbing the one seed from the Cougars.
You're offering me one of the 10 most talented teams in college basketball, performing like a top-10 team by the numbers, coached by a man who's made nine straight Sweet 16s at +900? Sign me up.
Final Four: Memphis +8000
I felt a little bit nuts when I saw this number listed. 80/1?
Are people forgetting how Memphis performed this season? I'm no believer in Penny Hardaway's effectiveness on the sideline, but he consistently proved me wrong this season.
Memphis played in a downtrodden AAC this year, yet dominated the conference, losing just twice.
Against strong competition and in difficult spots, this team simply won games. Memphis was 6-1 in Quad 1 games and 11-3 versus Quads 1-2. The Tigers were 11-2 on the road and 16-3 away from home.
They played the single toughest non-conference schedule in college basketball, collecting wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss. Those are all teams seeded eight or higher and favored to win their first-round game.
But for some reason, Memphis is a first round underdog to a Mountain West team that lost a game to UC Riverside this season.
The Tigers have double the odds to reach the Final Four as a North Carolina team the entire world just spent three days screaming about not being worthy of even playing in this tournament.
Now, there's an injury concern. Point guard Tyrese Hunter hurt his foot and missed the AAC Tournament. He was seen in a walking boot, and his status for the rest of the month, however, is still unknown:
Penny asked about Tyrese Hunter and Dante Harris:
"(Harris') ankle is still a little sore but getting way better. Tyrese, we'll see tomorrow on him, on how we'll handle things. He's in a little more difficult situation. Still in great spirits. Still feeling like he can try. But…
— Jason Munz (@munzly) March 18, 2025
Let me get this straight: We all saw Cooper Flagg in a wheelchair last week, but Duke is still the title favorite. Meanwhile, Memphis possibly losing its third-leading scorer is a death sentence.
Make that make sense for me. I'll throw a dart on Penny and the boys.
