The NCAA Tournament is down to 16 teams, and that means we're adding to our betting card by targeting National Championship and Final Four futures.
So, with that in mind, here's NCAA Tournament futures, including five National Championship and Final Four picks to make.
Illinois Fighting Illini
To Win East Region (+600)
Yes, the Illini will have to win back-to-back difficult games over Iowa State and presumably UConn to win the East Region.
But if you’re willing to give me 6-1 odds on KenPom’s most efficient offense to simply win two more games, I’m going to take that every time.
Iowa State is elite on the defensive end, but it may not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Brad Underwood’s team if the game becomes a track meet.
Terrence Shannon Jr. is a freight train in transition, something the Cyclones have yet to see in this tournament.
Looking ahead to a potential matchup against UConn, Illinois is one of the few teams that can match the depth of the Huskies, as Underwood regularly goes nine deep.
Additionally, Dain Dainja brings a level of physicality that'll be needed to at least offset the length of Donovan Clingan on the interior.
UConn will probably open right around a five-point favorite if that matchup surfaces in the Elite Eight, and I believe Illinois would be capable of pulling off the upset if it brings its best to TD Garden.
Give me the Illini at +600 to make it Phoenix.
Pick: Illinois to Win East Region (+600)
UNC Tar Heels
To Win West Region (+180)
By Alex Hinton
In the West Region, Arizona is the betting favorite to reach the Final Four and is now close to even-money (+110) after Clemson upset Baylor. North Carolina is the top seed in the region, though, and it's favored to defeat Alabama on Thursday.
The Tar Heels may have to outgun the Crimson Tide with a total sitting at 173.5 points. However, they have the better defensive team and a clear advantage inside with center Armando Bacot.
Should UNC advance, it'll face either Clemson or Arizona. The Heels would be favored over the Tigers, which they would be facing for the third time. The teams split the regular-season series, with both teams winning on the other’s home floor.
However, I expect Arizona will be awaiting in the Elite Eight in a matchup that could be one of the best games of the tournament — given the storylines.
There will be great matchups all over the court, with Bacot dueling against Oumar Ballo and Keshad Johnson against Harrison Ingram.
However, the game may ultimately be decided by who wins the matchup between ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis and Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love, who shared a backcourt together in Chapel Hill for the last three years.
While they call themselves brothers, they’ll each be motivated to outshine the other and send their teams to the Final Four. But no team will have more intel on how to defend Love than his old team.
I also believe UNC holds value to win the National Championship, currently sitting at +1300 at FanDuel.
However, it may have to face the prohibitive favorite — UConn — in the Final Four, opposed to title game. That doesn’t leave a great hedging opportunity.
For that reason, I prefer taking the Tar Heels to win the West at +180 at FanDuel, which is slightly favorable compared to other books.
Pick: UNC to Win West Region (+180)
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UNC Tar Heels
To Win National Championship (+1300)
By D.J. James
The Heels are getting overlooked because UConn and Purdue dominated their second-round matchups and Houston won its game on the backs of its bench.
UNC has to get by Alabama in the Sweet 16, and then the Heels match up with either Clemson or Arizona.
Of the teams left in the field, UNC is one of six squads with a top-20 offense and defense. The Heels have been here before, too. Davis and Bacot were key ingredients to UNC’s title run in 2022.
UNC has elite defense at the rim. In addition, opponents are only shooting 31.4% from 3 against the Heels.
Bacot can match up with the bigs of Arizona, and UNC can rebound with the best teams left in the field.
The Tar Heels rarely turn over the basketball, which supplies them a tremendous edge over Alabama. Adding on, Bama struggles to defend the interior, so Bacot could have a field day.
Arizona could be a slight favored over the Tar Heels if they play, but the Wildcats can't defend the 3 and also turn the ball over far more frequently than the Heels.
Sure, this UNC team has dropped games it shouldn't have this season, but at its best, it's as good as any.
Consistent guard play — with made buckets and a lack of mistakes — can lead to sustained success. Getting the Heels at +1200 or better is a reasonable play.
Pick: UNC to Win National Championship (+1300)
Houston Cougars
To Win National Championship (+600)
By Matt Gannon
Houston got an awful draw with Texas A&M in the second round. That could've been a major downfall for the Cougars, but despite A&M’s best effort and a wild comeback to force overtime, Houston escaped with a win.
The reason I believed Texas A&M was a tough draw for Houston was because it’s one of the few teams that plays an extremely physical brand of basketball. The Aggies pride themselves on defense and hard-nosed possessions.
It was basically Houston playing a slightly worse version of itself. My numbers had Texas A&M closer to a 7-seed, which made it — far and away — the best 9-seed in this bracket.
Luckily for Houston, it survived, and the path now opens up for the Cougars to reach the national title game.
I don’t see them slipping up against a young and frail Duke team. From there, they’ll be favored over the Marquette or NC State to ultimately reach the Final Four.
We’ve seen this dance from Houston before, but I believe this year's team is different. In years past, it played in the AAC, allowing it to easily win nearly every game in conference play. This season, it’s far more battle-tested after playing a grueling Big 12 schedule.
The Cougars lost a few Big 12 games this year, which is fine. In that conference, you’re supposed to. Past Houston teams didn’t face adversity until it reached the Big Dance, but now, it has a few losses and bad moments under its belt.
The ability to play defense as physically as Houston does — while scoring 80-plus points — is the difference-maker for me.
Pick: Houston to Win National Championship (+600)
Tennessee Volunteers
To Win National Championship (+1300)
Rick Barnes has gotten a bad rap.
Yes, he's fallen short in the NCAA Tournament often in his head coaching career, dating back to 1997 at Clemson. However, if a coach can have sustained success long enough to put a team in the tournament as often as Barnes has, losses are bound to come more often than wins.
The glaring hole in Barnes’ Hall of Fame-worthy resume is clearly the lack of a national title. At Tennessee, he hasn’t managed to lead his team past the Sweet 16, meaning a win over Creighton would seem like a proverbial road block has been cleared.
Dalton Knecht is the primary reason this Volunteers team feels different.
After bullying Duke last season, the Vols failed to advance past Florida Atlantic primarily because Barnes lacked a true alpha to carry the team offensively in clutch moments. Tennessee managed only 55 points in the loss to FAU last year, and no individual tallied more than 10 points in that game.
The win over Texas on Saturday wasn't aesthetically pleasing. In fact, it felt very similar to games in past years that Tennessee may have lost. So, the simple fact that the Vols still advanced on a night when the offense struggled gives me optimism.
Knecht shot just 5-of-18 from the floor, but the defensive efforts of Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka were significant enough to force Dylan Disu into his worst game of the season.
Knecht has been a top-10 player in college basketball this season. I doubt he struggles again the way he did on Saturday at any point for the remainder of the tournament.
He must feel relieved that his teammates’ efforts were enough to pick up his slack, and I truly believe we will see a special 35-plus point effort from Knecht before his season ends.
The Midwest Region feels as wide open as any. Purdue is a deserving favorite, but Tennessee, Creighton and Gonzaga aren't far behind considering the way all three teams are playing.
Tennessee has an elite defensive unit, old and experienced guards and now a true scoring threat that can score even when the team runs poor offense for 25 seconds.
At 11-1, the Vols are attractively priced to advance and potentially complete Barnes’ resume with a title.
