The Sweet 16 is here, and it's more than a little chalky. 12 of the 16 top-four seeds are still dancing. The only remaining seed below six is 10-seed Arkansas, which means John Calipari is somehow playing the role of Cinderella. Heck, the only team left outside of the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12 is everyone's favorite conference long-shot darling … Duke.
The last time we had a Sweet 16 this chalky was back in 2007, when no team worse than a seven-seed made the Sweet 16. That March ended with two 1s and two 2s making the Final Four, with a pair of one seeds facing off in the finale. Will this March end the same way, or could we still find some version of a Cinderella as we look for futures value in the market?
Let's take a look at each region and make a verdict on any Final Four bets.
South Region
Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed, but only two of the last 10 such teams made the Final Four, and last season, UConn was the first to win the title since 2012.
Since the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee started choosing an overall No. 1 seed in 2004, that team has made the Final Four less than half the time.
The Tigers have been nearly perfect in the opening round of the modern tournament, but they remain only 9-11 after that, with only three Elite Eights and one Final Four.
This team limped into the tourney and may still be riding the wave of early non-conference wins over Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina and Purdue.
Plus, National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome is still playing through lingering ankle and shoulder injuries.
Up next is Michigan, which is now 13-4 in games within four points. That includes 11 straight wins, with one of them coming in the opening round against UC San Diego.
That's almost exactly what Dusty May did when he took FAU to the Final Four too, with close upset wins over Memphis, Tennessee and Kansas State before falling to San Diego State by a point in the Final Four.
Both of these teams have played in and won a lot of close games. Auburn's offense is better, but the results this year suggest a close game, which is always dangerous. One seeds are 32-8 against five seeds in the Sweet 16, but this feels closer than that trend would suggest.
Bruce Pearl is a terrific coach, but you can make a case Auburn has the worst coach in the region, with Tom Izzo being elite and both May and Chris Beard on the rise.
Auburn would love to get Ole Miss in the regional final. The Tigers swept the Rebels in three games and would dominate the glass and cut off Rebels' 3s, leaving little path for Ole Miss.
A matchup against Michigan State looks much trickier. Sparty should get to the line frequently in that one and can offset Auburn's rebounding strength. One seeds are an even 24-24 against two seeds in the Elite Eight.
I'd make Sparty a slight favorite over Auburn in that matchup and expect them to win. Izzo is now an insane 25-8 with one day of rest in the tournament, making him the clear choice over Pearl.
We all know the stat about unranked preseason teams falling short of the Final Four as top two seeds, but Michigan State looks poised to break the curse.
The first matchup against Ole Miss leans heavily in Michigan State's favor. Ole Miss is a terrible rebounding team, so Sparty should get plenty of second chances with its offensive rebounding prowess and should live at the line since the Rebels foul a lot.
Easy points — plus elite defense — is a winning formula, even against a terrific tournament coach like Beard.
I have Ole Miss at only 8% to make the Final Four, just barely above Arkansas for last among remaining teams. I love Beard, but the remaining teams are bad matchups.
I have Auburn badly overpriced, with implied odds around 60% to win the region. I make the Tigers closer to 35% and not even the favorite in this region.
Michigan State is more likely to win its next game. I like Sparty head-to-head against Auburn, and I trust them to beat rival Michigan again if necessary after sweeping them in-season with significant rebounding and turnover edges.
South Region Verdict
Michigan State is undervalued at +310 (FanDuel) to make the Final Four. I make Sparty a favorite at over 40% in this region, and their rebounding prowess looks like an especially important matchup edge.
Bet +310 to make the Final Four, and with the West being the most toss-up region, sprinkle part of your bet on Michigan State +1100 (ESPN BET) to make the final, too.
Pick: Michigan State to Make the Final Four (+310)
West Region
Florida struggled with UConn before surviving, but that game exposed the reason some were skeptical about the Gators coming into the tournament.
Florida is at its best getting up and down the court, but it's not a great half-court offense. The Gators struggled in a more turgid pace against UConn, and they're going to see more games like that the rest of the way.
The advanced metrics for Florida are still great, but Todd Golden would need to become just the fourth coach ever to start the tourney winless and go on to win the championship. We've already seen him get thoroughly outcoached by Dan Hurley in a game the Huskies, frankly, should've won.
With Golden, Grant McCasland and Kevin Willard more than a little green in the ears in this region, all eyes quickly turn to John Calipari and Arkansas as the obvious long shot out West.
In 12 tournaments with Kentucky, Calipari's teams made seven Elite Eight's and four Final Fours, averaging 2.7 wins per appearance, despite five of those coming as four, four, five, six and eight seeds.
Calipari routinely got his team playing its best ball at the right time, effectively acting as a two seed regardless of what that little number on your bracket says.
Still, victories over Kansas and St. John's felt as much about those teams as it did Arkansas, and the Razorbacks are clearly the worst team left in the field by any chosen metric. Calipari doesn't have a huge in-game coaching edge (if any), and Arkansas is still playing shorthanded.
History warns against overlooking a 10 seed in this spot, but no one is going to overlook Calipari. The Hogs are clear deserving underdogs against Texas Tech and would be even more unlikely to beat either Elite Eight opponent.
Texas Tech played a bunch of close coin-flip games all season, and history suggests the game against Arkansas could be close, despite the seed difference. It'll be a strength-on-strength match, with Tech's surprisingly good offense against a good Razorbacks defense.
Tech is favored for a reason, and its good offense and slow pace could present a difficult task against Florida.
I think the key matchup out West comes right away when Maryland faces Florida. Historically, one seeds are 50-20 in the Sweet 16 against four seeds (71%), but one seeds have lost six of their last nine games against 4s or 5s in this spot.
We have that matchup in all four regions, and recent history says it's unlikely all four one seeds survive. If one of the underdogs does win, you should know that two and three seeds are just 8-14 in the Elite Eight against four and five seeds.
Translation: Once that underdog four- or five-seed knocks off the top dog, they basically become the one seed going forward.
The "Crab Five" have the talent to play like a one seed, at least for a weekend in San Francisco. Maryland is flying high after Derik Queen's buzzer beater and could play with new life after a game that should've ended its season.
The Terrapins are 16-4 in their last 20 games, with all four losses by a single possession. Maryland hasn't lost by more than five all season.
Maryland has a top 10 defense and can limit Florida 3s and free throws, and the Terps' starting five can be as good as any team on the left half of the bracket.
Florida is the right favorite, but the Terps are very live and would be my pick against either Elite Eight opponent.
West Region Verdict
I see some value on Maryland +500 (FanDuel) to make the Final Four. I make the Terps about even, with Texas Tech around 22% and with Florida as the clear favorite but overpriced.
The big hurdle for Maryland is Florida, so you might be better off just playing the +225 moneyline (DraftKings) and going from there.
Pick: Maryland to Make the Final Four (+500)
East Region
Duke is the tournament favorite for good reason. The Blue Devils rolled through their opening two games and are traditionally as good of a bet as there is in March as a one seed, averaging 3.9 wins with four titles in 14 tries (six of their 10 losses have come by a single possession).
This team finished the regular season with the 10th-best point differential (+685) in the NCAA Tournament era, and all nine teams ahead of it made the Elite Eight, with over half making the title game.
Duke has size everywhere, with its outstanding defense giving the team a super high floor. The Blue Devils are also deep and can run opponents off the court when things click right. Cooper Flagg looks perfectly fine after an injury, so this is the obvious team to beat right now.
The Blue Devils are the right regional and tournament favorite, but they're not bettable at current prices. Duke is my only odds-on favorite to make the Final Four, but I still can't get anywhere near its listed price.
If you want to invest in Duke at this point, you have no real choice but to go all-in. That means betting on a title, and a title likely means a Most Outstanding Player award for Flagg. There's a very good chance you'll be glad to have that ticket at +325 (bet365, odds boost) after this weekend as a proxy Duke ticket.
Arizona is the one team that definitely has to play Duke, and that alone makes the Wildcats my longest shot of the region.
I'm not convinced Tommy Lloyd's stuff works against top teams, and it sure didn't work against Duke when the Blue Devils came to Tucson and won by 14. Duke held Arizona to under 40% from the field and dominated the glass in that game.
It's hard to find a case for Arizona.
I'm intrigued by BYU, though.
The numbers say two seeds dominate six seeds in the Sweet 16 at 23-7, but 12 of the last 20 meetings have seen the underdog get to overtime, lose by a bucket or win outright.
Alabama versus BYU is strength-on-strength, and I hope you like offense. It's the highest total of the round by far, and that screams "shot-variance game," where the right team's 3s falling could easily swing a competitive matchup.
BYU's defense is the weakest link and it'll allow a ton of good 3s, but I'm not sold on Alabama's improved defense either. I also trust Kevin Young to use the extra prep time to find a ton of easy 2s and match Bama bucket-for-bucket.
Since the start of February, BYU ranks fourth at Bart Torvik, basically playing like a one seed at 11-1, with the only loss coming against Houston. This is a flawed team with a weak defense and one that can lose handily if things go sideways. But the upside is clear.
I'm definitely betting BYU on the moneyline at +190 (DraftKings) — it's my favorite upset pick of the Sweet 16 — in a game I make close to a coin flip.
I don't love either team's chances against Duke — whose offense should be able to name its number against either defense — but BYU's odds are far too long because of this mispriced opening game.
Duke is going to score on almost any team. The best antidote might just be another terrific offense, and BYU ranks ninth in KenPom and scores at an elite rate with a ton of 3s.
Kevin Young found something special with this offense, which has been humming down the stretch. The Cougars can still be blown out if the shots don't fall and the defense is exposed, but anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.
East Region Verdict
The Cougars are my favorite long-shot Final Four bet of the weekend. Duke is obviously the heavy favorite in the East, but I put BYU around 16% — just behind Alabama — and I'd price it around +525, leaving significant margin at +950 to make the Final Four (FanDuel / BetMGM / Caesars).
Bet BYU to beat Alabama at +190 and play the Final Four escalator now, just in case Duke loses or Flagg gets re-injured.
Pick: BYU +950 to Make the Final Four
Midwest Region
Houston was my pick to win it all before the tournament, and I still like the Cougars.
Kelvin Sampson has made two Final Fours, though his teams have gone out in upset losses in six of eight tries as a top three seed. Houston won a great conference by four games and has one loss by a single point since the start of Big 12 play.
This looks like Sampson's best team ever.
Houston has the best defense in the land as usual, but the Coogs have a top 10 offense this time, too. They're going to dominate on the glass and in the turnover margin, giving them that many more possessions to be better than the opponent.
Houston didn't get any favors geographically, as it's playing in Indianapolis against three relatively local opponents. This is the only region with all four of its top seeds remaining, too. Still, I have Houston qualitatively better than the competition here.
But there's one big problem.
The Cougars still play slow as ever, and that should mean slogs against Purdue and, potentially, Tennessee. Slow games mean fewer possessions for the better team to be better, and they make it more likely for a couple of lucky shots or one cold shooting streak to swing things.
That alone leaves Houston vulnerable in the Midwest.
Purdue's only real upset win in the NCAA Tournament this century came in a 10 vs. 7 game, but the Boilermakers beat Alabama and Ole Miss and are an elite 3-point shooting team.
If the 3s go Purdue's way in a slow, close game, it could hang or shock Houston. I'm not betting Purdue, but that could open the region up for the other half of the draw.
Kentucky swept Tennessee in two regular-season matchups, but the Wildcats are the underdog here without Jaxson Robinson or Kerr Kriisa. The Wildcats shot 50% in both Vols games, but even without the shot variance, those games were fairly even.
Historically, though, you'd think the seeds are about even here; the two seed beats the three around 60% of the time.
You never have to twist my arm to convince me to fade Rick Barnes in March. He's an awful 7-17 ATS since 2009 in the tournament, though those numbers are even worse on short prep or as a seed underdog (bet Houston over Tennessee if we get there).
Tennessee has been a top four seed nine times, and the Volunteers have been upset by a lower seed in all nine appearances and had never even made the Elite Eight until last year. It's still without that elusive Final Four, too.
Tennessee has a similar problem to Houston, in that it plays slow and thus leaves itself vulnerable to upsets or elite shot making, like in both Kentucky matchups. The Vols' defense is awesome, but it does allow a ton of 3s, and sometimes those shots will fall.
I don't even like this Kentucky team all that much. I don't trust Mark Pope yet, the defense is pretty forgettable and the roster is thin.
But the Wildcats did beat Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville early, and they have SEC wins against Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri and Mississippi State, in addition to those two Tennessee wins.
Midwest Region Verdict
Kentucky isn't great, but it's competitive, and that's enough to give the Wildcats a fighting chance with all the other teams in this region vulnerable at turgid pace and beatable if the shots fall.
I have Kentucky around 15% to win the Midwest — barely above Purdue at the bottom — but that still leaves some implied value at +750 (bet365), so I'll play a half-unit lean.
Pick: Kentucky to Make the Final Four (+750)
