Betting on sports can come in many different ways, from pregame and prop bets to futures and first-half wagers.
One of the most popular ways to wager is in-game, particularly on teams that have wild swings.
While other sports lack analytics on teams that have consistent in-game hot and cold streaks, the creation of the "Kill Shot" accurately predicts teams that deserve attention in the live market.
The definition of "Kill Shot" from Evan Miyakawa is defined as "the number of double-digit scoring runs per game — 10 points or more scored in a row without the opposing team scoring."
Volatility is needed to utilize the data, as college basketball is tailor-made for in-game wagering. Kill Shots works both ways, as teams are calculated by 10-0 runs for and against.
The "Kill Shot": Breaking down tourney teams that go on scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) over the course of the season.
A team with more 10-0 scoring runs than the opponent in a game wins 81% of the time. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/F4bIE4wbzN
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2024
This article will take a look at the teams that average the most Kill Shots per game, allow the most Kill Shots per game and identify a few games that will be live betting extravaganzas.
Elite Kill Shot Ratio
Kill Shot > 70% | Kill Shot Allowed < 25%
Description: Capable of rattling off a 10-0 run, generally to close out games
- Houston
- Gonzaga
- Iowa State
- Auburn
- McNeese State
Great Kill Shot Teams
> 70% chance per game
Description: High probability of executing a 10-0 once per game
- James Madison
- UConn
- Saint Mary’s
- Arizona
- BYU
- Marquette
- Creighton
- Samford
- Texas
- North Carolina
- Dayton
- Drake
- Grand Canyon
- Oakland
Streakiest Kill Shot Teams
> 50% Kill Shot | > 40% Kill Shot Allowed
Description: Highest probability of executing and giving up 10-0 runs in a single game
- UAB
- Colorado
- Western Kentucky
- TCU
- Alabama
Low Kill Shot Teams
< 65% Kill Shot | < 20% Kill Shot Allowed
Description: The “Do Not Bet Live” list — teams that generally don't create or allow 10-0 runs
- San Diego State
- Michigan State
- New Mexico
- Utah State
- Tennessee
- Duke
- Wisconsin
- Boise State
Here's a look at each team's penchant for creating and allowing 10-0 runs throughout a contest:
3 First-Round Games to Live Bet
McNeese vs. Gonzaga
- McNeese: Kill Shot 79% · Kill Shot Allowed 24%
- Gonzaga: Kill Shot 103% · Kill Shot Allowed 19%
Neither McNeese nor Gonzaga have given up scoring runs throughout the season, but both squads are capable of creating a 10-0 run at any point.
The Bulldogs executed more Kill Shots (32) than games played, all but guaranteeing the Cowboys must generate a run of their own.
McNeese has one of the highest 3-point shooting percentages in the country, while Gonzaga has a heavy offensive rebounding edge.
Look to grab Gonzaga anywhere at plus-money and McNeese at double-digits or better.
Western Kentucky vs. Marquette
- Western Kentucky: Kill Shot 70% · Kill Shot Allowed 40%
- Marquette: Kill Shot 85% · Kill Shot Allowed 29%
The Hilltoppers allow one of the highest rates of Kill Shots of any team in the tournament field, an element Marquette will expose.
The Golden Eagles have dominated teams that rank outside the NET top 50 from the opening tip, leaving the more probable action on Western Kentucky in this game.
The spread of 14 would be the largest on the season for the Hilltoppers, who have not lost a game by more than 10 points all year.
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's
- Grand Canyon: Kill Shot 74% · Kill Shot Allowed 26%
- Saint Mary’s: Kill Shot 90% · Kill Shot Allowed 26%
Differing pace of play will be a large component of this West Region game.
The Antelopes run their offense at a quicker pace, ranking 74th in average possession length. On the other side, the Gaels have no plans for tempo, running offense at the 359th-fastest pace in all of Division I.
The bigger question is if Grand Canyon can get Saint Mary’s to play a game completely in transition. The Antelopes have the better numbers in ball protection and offensive turnovers, indicating there will be spurts of scoring in this game.
Look to take either team on a live line that's 10 points from the closing spread.
