2019 NCAA Tournament Odds: Our Projected Spreads, Over/Unders for Each First-Round Matchup

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds: Our Projected Spreads, Over/Unders for Each First-Round Matchup article feature image
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  • Kick March Madness off with our 2019 NCAA Tournament odds -- the projected spreads and over/unders for every first-round matchup before sportsbooks release them.

The 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket is set.

We've used my power ratings to project NCAA Tournament odds. You'll find projected spreads and over/unders for every first-round matchup below, complete with each team's odds to advance to the Round of 32.

Let the madness begin.

Jump to:First Four | East Region | South Region | Midwest Region | West Region

FIRST FOUR

Projected Odds: #16 North Dakota State vs. #16 North Carolina Central

  • Spread: North Dakota State -4.5
  • Total: 137.5
  • Proj Score: North Dakota State 71 | North Carolina Central 66.5
  • Win Probability: North Dakota State 66% | North Carolina Central 34%

Projected Odds: #11 Belmont vs. #11 Temple

  • Spread: Belmont -2.5
  • Total: 151.5
  • Proj Score: Belmont 77 | Temple 74.5
  • Win Probability: Belmont 57.2% | Temple 42.8%

Projected Odds: #16 Prairie View A&M vs. #16 Farleigh Dickinson

  • Spread: Prairie View A&M +0.5
  • Over/Under: 146
  • Score: Prairie View A&M 73 | Farleigh Dickinson 73.5
  • Win Probability: Prairie View A&M 49.9% | Farleigh Dickinson 50.1%

Projected Odds: #11 Arizona State vs. #11 St. John's

  • Spread: Arizona State PK
  • Total: 147.5
  • Proj Score: Arizona State 74 | St. John's 74
  • Win Probability: Arizona State 50% | St. John's 50%

EAST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Duke vs. #16 North Carolina Central/North Dakota State

  • Spread: Duke -35 vs. NC Central | Duke -30.5 vs. ND State
  • Over/Under: 141 vs. NC Central | 145.5 vs. ND State
  • Score vs. NC Central: Duke 88 | NC Central 53
  • Score vs. ND State: Duke 88 | ND State 57.5
  • Win Probability for Duke-NC Central: Duke 99.9% | NC Central 0.1%
  • Win Probability for Duke-ND State: Duke 99.9% | ND State 0.1%

Projected Odds: #8 VCU vs. #9 UCF

  • Spread: VCU +2
  • Total: 125.5
  • Proj Score: VCU 62 | UCF 64
  • Win Probability: VCU 44.1% | UCF 55.9%

Projected Odds: #5 Mississippi State vs. #12 Liberty

  • Spread: Mississippi State -9
  • Total: 136.5
  • Proj Score: Mississippi State 73 | Liberty 64
  • Win Probability: Mississippi State 82.8% | Liberty 17.2%

Projected Odds: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Saint Louis

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -12
  • Total: 130
  • Proj Score: Virginia Tech 71 | Saint Louis 59
  • Win Probability: Virginia Tech 88.2% | Saint Louis 11.8%

Projected Odds: #6 Maryland vs. #11 Temple/Belmont

  • Spread: Maryland -7.5 vs. Temple | Maryland -5 vs. Belmont
  • Over/Under: 138 vs. Temple | 148 vs. Belmont
  • Score vs. Temple: Maryland 73 | Temple 65.5
  • Score vs. Belmont: Maryland 76.5 | Belmont 71.5
  • Win Probability for Maryland-Temple: Maryland 76.8% | Temple 23.2%
  • Win Probability for Maryland-Belmont: Maryland 66.1% | Belmont 33.9%

Projected Odds: #3 LSU vs. #14 Yale

  • Spread: LSU -10.5
  • Total: 151.5
  • Proj Score: LSU 81 | Yale 70.5
  • Win Probability: LSU 85.7% | Yale 14.3%

Projected Odds: #7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota

  • Spread: Louisville -4
  • Total: 135
  • Proj Score: Louisville 69.5 | Minnesota 65.5
  • Win Probability: Louisville 64% | Minnesota 36%

Projected Odds: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bradley

  • Spread: Michigan State -22
  • Total: 135.5
  • Proj Score: Michigan State 79 | Bradley 57
  • Win Probability: Michigan State 98.9% | Bradley 1.1%

SOUTH REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Virginia vs. #16 Gardner-Webb

  • Spread: Virginia -26.5
  • Over/Under: 132.5
  • Score: Virginia 79.5 | Gardner-Webb 53
  • Win Probability: Virginia 99.3% | Gardner-Webb 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Mississippi vs. #9 Oklahoma

  • Spread: Mississippi PK
  • Total: 140
  • Proj Score: Mississippi 70 | Oklahoma 70
  • Win Probability: Mississippi 50% | Oklahoma 50%

Projected Odds: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Oregon

  • Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
  • Total: 121.5
  • Proj Score: Wisconsin 63.5 | Oregon 58
  • Win Probability: Wisconsin 70% | Oregon 30%

Projected Odds: #4 Kansas State vs. #13 UC Irvine

  • Spread: Kansas State -10
  • Total: 119
  • Proj Score: Kansas State 64.5 | UC Irvine 54.5
  • Win Probability: Kansas State 84.3% | UC Irvine 15.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Villanova vs. #11 St. Mary's

  • Spread: Villanova -3
  • Total: 137
  • Proj Score: Villanova 70 | St. Mary's 67
  • Win Probability: Villanova 62.1% | St. Mary's 37.9%

Projected Odds: #3 Purdue vs. #14 Old Dominion

  • Spread: Purdue -15
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Purdue 74 | Old Dominion 59
  • Win Probability: Purdue 94.9% | Old Dominion 5.1%

Projected Odds: #7 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa

  • Spread: Cincinnati -0.5
  • Total: 142.5
  • Proj Score: Cincinnati 71.5 | Iowa 71
  • Win Probability: Cincinnati 50.1% | Iowa 49.9%

Projected Odds: #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Colgate

  • Spread: Tennessee -18
  • Total: 146
  • Proj Score: Tennessee 82 | Colgate 64
  • Win Probability: Tennessee 97.2% | Colgate 2.8%

MIDWEST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 North Carolina vs. #16 Iona

  • Spread: North Carolina -25
  • Over/Under: 158
  • Score: North Carolina 91.5 | Iona 66.5
  • Win Probability: North Carolina 99.3% | Iona 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Utah State vs. #9 Washington

  • Spread: Utah State +0.5
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Utah State 66.5 | Washington 67
  • Win Probability: Utah State 49.9% | Washington 50.1%

Projected Odds: #5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State

  • Spread: Auburn -8.5
  • Total: 142
  • Proj Score: Auburn 75.5 | New Mexico State 67
  • Win Probability: Auburn 81.7% | New Mexico State 18.3%

Projected Odds: #4 Kansas vs. #13 Northeastern

  • Spread: Kansas -11
  • Total: 142.5
  • Proj Score: Kansas 77 | Northeastern 66
  • Win Probability: Kansas 86.3% | Northeastern 13.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Iowa State vs. #11 Ohio State

  • Spread: Iowa State -5
  • Total: 137.5
  • Proj Score: Iowa State 71.5 | Ohio State 66.5
  • Win Probability: Iowa State 66.1% | Ohio State 33.9%

Projected Odds: #3 Houston vs. #14 Georgia State

  • Spread: Houston -12
  • Total: 140
  • Proj Score: Houston 76 | Georgia State 64
  • Win Probability: Houston 88.2% | Georgia State 11.8%

Projected Odds: #7 Wofford vs. #10 Seton Hall

  • Spread: Wofford -1
  • Total: 141
  • Proj Score: Wofford 71 | Seton Hall 70
  • Win Probability: Wofford 50.2% | Seton Hall 49.8%

Projected Odds: #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Abilene Christian

  • Spread: Kentucky -22.5
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Kentucky 78 | Abilene Christian 55.5
  • Win Probability: Kentucky 99.3% | Abilene Christian 0.7%

WEST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M

  • Spread: Gonzaga -28 vs. FDU | Gonzaga -28.5 vs. PV
  • Over/Under: 153 vs. FDU | 150.5 vs. PV
  • Score vs. FDU: Gonzaga 90.5 | FDU 62.53
  • Score vs. PV: Gonzaga 89.5 | PV 61
  • Win Probability for Gonzaga-FDU: Gonzaga 99.3% | FDU 0.7%
  • Win Probability for Gonzaga-PV: Gonzaga 99.3% | PV 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Syracuse vs. #9 Baylor

  • Spread: Syracuse -1
  • Total: 133.5
  • Proj Score: Syracuse 67.5 | Baylor 66.5
  • Win Probability: Syracuse 50.2% | Baylor 49.8%

Projected Odds: #5 Marquette vs. #12 Murray State

  • Spread: Marquette -5
  • Total: 144.5
  • Proj Score: Marquette 75 | Murray State 70
  • Win Probability: Marquette 66.1% | Murray State 33.9%

Projected Odds: #4 Florida State vs. #13 Vermont

  • Spread: Florida State -11
  • Total: 134.5
  • Proj Score: Florida State 73 | Vermont 62
  • Win Probability: Florida State 86.3% | Vermont 13.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Buffalo vs. #11 Arizona State/St. John's

  • Spread: Buffalo -4.5 vs. ASU | Buffalo -4.5 vs. SJU
  • Over/Under: 149.5 vs. ASU | 152 vs. SJU
  • Score vs. ASU: Buffalo 77 | ASU 72.5
  • Score vs. SJU: Buffalo 78.5 | SJU 74
  • Win Probability for Buffalo-ASU: Buffalo 66% | ASU 34%
  • Win Probability for Buffalo-SJU: Buffalo 66% | SJU 34%

Projected Odds: #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Northern Kentucky

  • Spread: Texas Tech -15.5
  • Total: 134
  • Proj Score: Texas Tech 75 | Northern Kentucky 59.5
  • Win Probability: Texas Tech 96.8% | Northern Kentucky 3.2%

Projected Odds: #7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida

  • Spread: Nevada -1.5
  • Total: 132.5
  • Proj Score: Nevada 67 | Florida 65.5
  • Win Probability: Nevada 53.1% | Florida 46.9%

Projected Odds: #2 Michigan vs. #15 Montana

  • Spread: Michigan -19.5
  • Total: 132.5
  • Proj Score: Michigan 76 | Montana 56.5
  • Win Probability: Michigan 97.7% | Montana 2.3%
About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

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